Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Is Crude Oil about to follow Gold’s pattern of suddenly reversing its uptrend? The patterns are similar for having spent a couple of days challenging critical resistance without closing above it. So, a sudden reversal down would be vulnerable to extending relentlessly. More important, this pattern might begin repeating more widely across commodities.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Initial strength Tuesday stopped short of probing fresh highs before reversing back down. The 80.00 pullback limit held as support, so any initial strength Wednesday would still be credible for extending higher.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s gap down was credible for extending, but it reacted back up into positive territory. Holding 1.3810 resistance would have been preferable to the pattern, but 1.3855 did hold, leaving the resolution down likely.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows overnight into Tuesday’s open were reversed into slightly positive territory, but not enough to suspect momentum is yet reversing up. There is no active signal.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s narrow ranging didn’t extend the decline, which still has an attraction above to 20.70 regardless of the pattern’s eventual resolution.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s gap down was retraced almost entirely. The pattern’s 133-22 objective above remains outstanding so long as pullbacks now hold 132-22 as support.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
So much time spent at 99.50-100.00 without extending higher was already far from optimal, even before Tuesday morning’s dip to 98.80. Its recovery back up to 100.00 buys the resolution a little time, although the late dip back under 99.50 wasn’t its wisest use.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up sharply Tuesday helps to confirm that a bottom may have been forming. It also helps to confirm the bottoming is in its early stages, since the gap will need to be filled or at least attacked before extending higher would be credible.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s multi-session plunge was not at all on my radar, not until the highs were more formally rejected. But they were summarily rejected, and the unstable base that launched the last upleg is now being probed very quickly upon being revisited from above. This price action is unusual. Not terribly much, but a little. Much more odd is that no other patterns even suggest this possibility.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s open firmed despite there being no rush to resume the confirmed rally. The attempt didn’t extend for very long before retracing to fresh lows in negative territory. The dip recovered to hold 80.00 support, so there is now no reason to delay the rally.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s open dipped immediately despite there being no rush to resume the confirmed downleg. It reversed up to probe a fresh high that held 1.3855 resistance, so now the decline’s resumption is more pressing.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s bounce above 1333.00 to 1342.00 didn’t extend higher, and instead slid to fresh lows at 1308.50. Back above 1322.00 would be credible for triggering a bigger rally targeting 1349.00 or higher. But the pattern is otherwise vulnerable to collapse.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows tested 20.00 on Monday before “higher prior lows” could be tested to help form a bottom.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s gap down deflated Friday’s weak-handed rally that had stopped short of testing 132-30 resistance. Recovering intraday was better prepared to extend through 132-30 to fresh highs at 133-11, now targeting at least 134-06.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Friday’s reaction down from 100.00 to test 99.50 was still being tested Monday. There is no bullish reason for the delay, but also no reason to turn bearish so long as 99.50 holds as support.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to May from Apr, pricing is essentially on par] Narrow ranging at the lows Monday did not affect the pattern, which may be in the early stages of forming a bottom.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil wants to rally. Its downleg met its target. Its buy signal triggered. And its confirmation has been probed. And probed. And probed. Perhaps closing above it is being delayed until after the weekend. Otherwise, retesting the lows, anyone?

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s weakness was shallow, and only touched 80.20, also holding a test of Wednesday’s spike high. That’s probably not the pullback’s low, now that Thursday’s higher close already confirmed the rally. But closing back above 80.20 after dipping lower Monday morning would be bullish.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Firming Friday is allowable in the bearish scenario after two consecutive lower closes already confirmed the decline’s momentum. Closing lower would be optimal, especially if the morning were to have probed above Friday’s highs.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Finally met a support it liked Friday, at 1330.50. Back above 1333.00 extended to test 1342.00 resistance, then holding 1336.00 as support. Back above 1342.00 Monday would target 1349.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow sideways ranging did not reject Thursday’s break under 20.70, nor did it test “higher prior lows” so that retesting Thursday’s open could neutralize its attraction. The lack of volatility suggests waiting for better signals.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initial weakness Friday quickly recovered, much like Thursday’s open, except that Friday then extended higher intraday. Touching 132-22, which was a low on the way down, does suggest that Friday’s high will be exceeded at some point — probably Monday — before being vulnerable to resuming the decline.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Returning back to the 99.50 confirmation level overnight Friday helped to dismiss Thursday’s reaction down from its retest. Closing above 100.00 would now offer additional confirmation that momentum has reversed up — preferably recovering 100.00 immediately Monday since Friday was still testing 99.50 through the close. Next significant resistance would be 102.35, targeting 104.65.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Rejecting Tuesday’s gap up was due more reward than just to touch last week’s lows on Thursday. Overnight action easily probed lower, extending into Friday.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s plunge has extended considerably. That often precedes a stock market swoon, but not timed to the penny. Meanwhile, currencies seems a bit shaken up, too.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Second consecutive higher close Thursday confirms Wednesday’s break above prior highs, requiring there to be at least one eventual higher close, and potentially an upleg targeting 80.90.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Second consecutive lower close Thursday confirms Wednesday’s break under prior lows, requiring there to be at least one eventual lower close, and potentially a downleg targeting 1.3655-1.3660.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite two aggressive downdays already testing 1349.00 and 1342.00 respectively, Thursday plunged again to test 1321.00. That’s the lower-end of the unstable base that launched the last upleg. It should be able to absorb this reversal down that has already expended a lot of selling pressure, but perhaps not if 1333.00 isn’t recovered immediately, and then immediately productive.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap down to 20.15 support bounced back up throughout the day, but not back above anything meaningful. Higher prior lows at 20.70 might be tested, but a recovery Friday isn’t likely — or wouldn’t be likely to extend higher next week.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
An overnight bounce to 132-20 was long since retraced before Thursday’s opening low at 131-24. It was retraced intraday to test 132-08 resistance, but not recovered to even begin signaling momentum is reversing up.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
A reest of the 99.40 confirmation (basis May, 100.45 basis Apr) was reversed back down to the 98.55 (basis May, 99.50 basis Apr) buy signal that had triggered Wednesday. Still needs confirmation on a closing basis.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The week’s break higher was further proved false as suspected, with Thursday’s dip back to the 4.35 low. Just touching it probably won’t suffice as a durable bottom.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight edit

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Now we know why the Dollar Index outperformed the Euro Tuesday. The reaction to FOMC drove price sharply higher. Regardless of the surge of the degree, a second consecutive higher close Thursday would confirm a bigger recovery underway.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s retest of Monday’s highs and the 1.3810 proved not to have gained traction. The reaction to FOMC drove price down sharply. A second consecutive lower close Thursday would confirm momentum reversed down.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s opening gap was retraced back to 1363.00 resistance, before trending down overnight to gap down testing 1342.00 support. The session ranged around it until the FOMC statement, which drove price down to 1333.00. Holding its test as support would be bearish, but it is otherwise the range’s lower-end.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Not a very terrible reaction to Wednesday’s FOMC, but nothing approaching Gold’s reaction. Meanwhile, Copper had already begun recovering from fresh lows.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The FOMC reaction plunged to test 132-00, fulfilling the 132-08 pullback target. At least a corrective bounce targeting 132-28 is likely.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Slight overnight weakness was resolved before Wednesday’s open to test the 100.45 confirmation that the 97.35 pullback target’s test had held, and that closing above 99.50 had reversed the trend back up.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s rejection of Monday’s gap up left the pattern rudderless, awaiting Thursday’s EIA report to fill the gap back up to Monday’s open, or else retest the lows.

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