Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil is recovering nicely after fulfilling its pullback. That would be a lot more reliable if Wednesday were to confirm the recovery.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Firming Tuesday didn’t reverse momentum up, nor did it escape the attraction to probing fresh lows at least intraday. There is not currently a signal.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s close above 1.3810 jeopardized the toppiness. Tuesday’s opening dive to fresh lows tried to reinstate the bearishness by compensating for the delay, but recovering back above 1.3810 still undermines the toppiness.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Two consecutive sessions closing at 1378.50 resistance resolved by gapping down sharply Tuesday. The drop didn’t fully utilize the room down to 1349.00 that would allow bouncing back to 1363.00, but bounced back to 1363.00 anyway. There is no current signal.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap down extended to retest the 20.70 target that had been tested previously. And whose test had already launched a surge in the interim. Difficult to be bullish with that round-trip. Closing under 20.70 could trigger a much deeper drop.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The reaction down extended initially Tuesday to test 132-21 before reversing up intraday, short of fulfilling the pullback’s potential to 132-08. There is not currently a buy signal.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s test of the 97.35 pullback limit continued recovering Tuesday and tested 100.00 to within 3 cents. Recovering 99.50 signals momentum reversing up, and now extending above 100.45 would confirm.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s gap up was not credible, which Tuesday’s gap down confirms. It also left outstanding a gap back to Monday’s close above, which might help to coax a rally after the outstanding objective of new lows is fulfilled.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s choppy ride Monday still avoided closing above the rally’s initial target. Two consecutive sessions failing to extend through resistance make the third session likely to react down from it.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s dip back to recent lows — lows that had been tested already — suggests that at least a fresh low will be probed. And nothing requires that fresh low to recover, instead of extending down. Back above 76.70 would suggest momentum reversing up, but the trend otherwise remains down.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s highs was probed  only slightly Monday, but it more thoroughly tested the gap back to Thursday’s open. The gap held again. but 1.3910 resistance wasn’t rejected. And just delaying a downleg at this stage makes a downleg less likely. Initial weakness still has a window of credibility for extending down intraday, but now so does early strength.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s 1392.00 high was erased entirely before the open back around 1378.50. Somewhat more modest strength was also rejected as a midday slide fell to 1370.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap down never extended further, but only ranged sideways in negative territory. The “ineffectual pessimism” makes the pattern likely to extend on any initial strength.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The pullback from retesting prior highs extended down Monday to test 132-28, and any lower would make 132-08 likely to be tested, too. It’s probably just a corrective dip, so the rally could resume from any level.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s dip finally fulfilled the pullback’s extended 97.35 objective — at least, to within 2 cents. Closing back above 99.50 would start to signal momentum has reversed up, confirmed above 100.45.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Like Crude Oil’s temporary bounce, Monday’s gap up in Natural Gas should prove premature, too, creating and then leaving unfinished business below at the gap back to Friday’s close.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s earlier rally did drag Silver along with it as was expected — grudgingly as was expected, too. If there’s not enough sponsorship to take both any higher, then neither one should be capable of extending individually.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s dip attacked Thursday’s low, and not closing below it prevented the session from being a breakout. There is no requirement to extend any lower before bottoming, so extending lower through Monday’s close would be bearish.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The 1.3910 bounce limit was probed early Friday and tested throughout the day, but not recovered decisively. The high of its test also essentially filled the gap back to Thursday’s gap up. A top is complete enough to launch a downleg, so extending higher Monday would be bullish.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending higher into Friday’s open probed sharply higher after two consecutive higher closes triggered a breakout and confirmed it. Attacking 1388.50 didn’t prevent a pullback from probing back to Thursday’s ~1374.00high.The next higher target at 1399.00 is in-play so long as pullbacks now hold 1378.50 as support.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up sharply Friday and extending higher immediately was sorely missing that optimism when 21.75 resistance was tested minutes later. The steep reaction down to 21.30 still held positive territory. But the recovery can’t tolerate a second consecutive lower close.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having closed above 133-04 resistance Thursday, extending higher overnight into Friday’s open fulfilled the retracement testing the recent Island up to 134-00. Now closing back under 133-04 would signal momentum reversing down, if only for a corrective dip targeting 132-08.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Firming Thursday accelerated modestly into Friday’s open, but the recovery attempt was premature when potential below remained outstanding at 97.35. Recovering 100.00 (+/- 15 cents) would start to suggest otherwise.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Narrow ranging Friday didn’t even try to invalidate the two consecutive lower clsoses that now require  at least a third before any rally would be credible.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long bond went from invalidating the decline, reversing momentum up, and then fulfilling its minimum objective — a multi-point move — within the span of 2-3 sessions. The Euro went from gapping up to fresh highs in the morning, to reversing down sharply into the afternoon. This sort of elasticity tends not to be an exception, but more a warning that the environment is not opposed to swinging widely.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The gap back to down to last Friday’s 79.65 (basis Jun, 79.50 basis Mar) open was sliced through into Thursday’s open, extending to 79.40. An afternoon surge recovered back above the prior low to potentially begin forming a bottom.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s third higher close fulfilled the minimum requirement in-play, but still retesting last Friday’s high made an immediate reversal down unlikely. Thursday’s gap up to fresh highs fulfilled upside momentum, then reversed down well into negative territory. The gap back up to Thursday’s open may attract price higher, but just holding 1.3910 as resistance would allow a top to finish forming.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s second consecutive higher close confirms Wednesday’s breakout, regardless of the shaky base that launched it. The next targeted resistance is at 1378.50, but there remains potential for extending up to 1399.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Perhaps Thursday’s relatively flat ranging is symptomatic of being caught between two worlds, the bearish industrial Copper, and the bullish precious Gold. I would expect Silver to track Gold eventually, especially since its 20.70 pullback target was met and held, but there is otherwise no predictability to the pattern

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s initial weakness formed a Flag that broke sharply higher through the morning to probe the recovery’s 133-04 minimum objective up to 133-11. A pullback has room down to 132-24 and 132-08 without selling pressure even beginning to gain traction.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s firming left outstanding the attraction below at 97.35. The bounce is probably only temporary unless recovering 100.00 (+/- 15 cents).

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report didn’t help Wednesday’s break recover back into the recent consolidation, and instead pushed price back through recent lows. It was also a second consecutive lower close, so no recovery would be credible without first producing an eventual third lower close.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s surge Wednesday comes from a not very stable base. A second consecutive higher close confirming Wednesday’s breakout would make the rally’s slope likely to be very steep. Not confirming could reverse down steeply, too.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Reacting down Wednesday from having held 79.80 resistance still leaves outstanding the gap back to Friday’s 79.50 open, which should hold its test.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
While Wednesday morning’s surge back to Friday’s high held up to produce the minimum objective of a third higher close, it was still within the range. I’m reluctant to turn bearish until sellers exploit such weak buying, or else produce a break under prior lows. Perhaps fresh highs will develop simultaneously with the Dollar Index (above) neutralizing its attraction below.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Trending up overnight through 1349.00 resistance gapped up to fresh highs. A pullback from extending already above 1370.00 would be difficult to recover, so failing to produce a second consecutive higher close would undermine potential for extending to 1378.50 and 1399.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s completion of the 20.70 pullback was rewarded by gapping up and extending higher Wednesday. A second consecutive higher close above 21.75 would signal new highs in-play.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Immediately following Tuesday’s close above 131-10 that neutralized selling pressure, Wednesday’s open gapped up through 131-24 to signal that buyers were retaking control. Extending higher intraday all but confirms, except that touching 132-08 resistance intraday requires a close above it.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Dropping overnight to 98.30 extended down intraday to within 20 cents of the 97.35 target that became likely when Tuesday’s open didn’t immediately recover Monday’s dip.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The ongoing consolidation didn’t break higher again, but this time actually broke lower. The consolidation’s longevity suggests that the break lower will fail, and reverse back into the range. Back above 4.65 would still trigger a breakout.

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