Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Copper is not a precious metal, but Gold (and Silver’s) performance is still interesting while the more industrial metal continues plunging on shrinking global demand fears. Copper seems closer to a near-term bottom in terms of timing, so its renewed attractiveness might put pressure on Gold. Silver is less industrial than Copper, but more so than Gold, so its intraday recovery from fulfilling a target could be suggesting as much.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Holding 79.80 resistance Tuesday continues to inhibit a recovery from forming before filling the gap back down to Friday’s 79.50 open.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Flat-to-lower ranging reinforces the suggestion made by Monday’s flat-to-higher ranging, that the two prior days’ breakout and confirmation will nevertheless deeper require a pullback (e.g. 1.3800) before fulfilling their minimum objective of at least one more fresh high close.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up to test 1349.00 resistance by a couple of bucks was reversed deeply back into the range testing 1338.00. Closing under 1342.00 would have been optimal for maintaining the topping pattern, but buyers did fail to produce a breakout close for their efforts. Back under 1333.00 would trigger a downleg.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The premature bounce from coming only to within a nickel of the 20.70 objective was retraced by fresh lows Tuesday that did neutralize the attraction. Reacting back up above the two prior sessions’ lows suggests that any initial strength Wednesday would be able to extend higher intraday.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s firming probed above 131-10 resistance, suggesting that the decline has lost its traction. But a recovery above 131-24 must still signal momentum reversing up to avoid forming another distribution pattern that can break lower.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s gap down wasn’t recovered Tuesday, and fresh lows were probed back to support, this time fully testing the 100.00 (+/- 15 cents) range down to 99.85. Almost nothing short of immediately recovering 101.85 and 102.45 Wednesday would end the decline before potentially testing 97.35.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
More narrow ranging under 4.65 Tuesday all but ran out of time to begin rallying. The ongoing congestion is not distributive, but only a strong open Wednesday may be able to avoid probing fresh lows.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Despite having an entire weekend to ruminate over Friday’s gyrations, Monday’s price action hardly extended or retraced much. Tuesday afternoon could see resolution across the board.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s sideways ranging doesn’t definitively confirm the unfinished business below at Friday’s gap down. But it does suggest further improvement will be delayed until neutralizing the attraction by filling the open’s gap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Ranging narrowly sideways, albeit mostly in positive territory, doesn’t qualify as a third higher close to fulfill there being two consecutive higher closes. But considering the “ineffectual optimism,” not producing the minimum objective Tuesday will make a corrective dip much likelier.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming Monday held a retest of the rally’s original minimum target at 1342.00, which should begin reacting down to and through 1333.00 if a new downleg is going to begin. Otherwise, extending through 1349.00 would start to signal another upleg underway targeting 1378.50 and potentially 1399.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow ranging around Friday’s close left outstanding the slightly lower target outstanding at 20.70 that was attacked Friday to within a nickel.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s firming back to 131-06 persisted into Monday afternoon. Not holding this area would have been bearish, but not recovering immediately isn’t bullish. Any further delay past Tuesday morning would suggest another downleg will probe under Friday’s low, if not also extend the decline.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Sunday night’s dip gapped down to 101.50 Monday and spent the session ranging narrowly around 101.00. The bullish scenario allows little time to further delay extending through 102.90, let alone to extend the dip for any deeper pullback.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
More resistance at 4.65 Monday refused to trigger its buy signal, as price dipped a little further. Converting the recent bounce into a rally requires it to be obviously underway by noon Tuesday to avoid retesting the lows.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Did the long bond drop too far to bottom? Friday’s low would have been healthy to test — and to hold successfully — several weeks ago before prematurely rallying back to prior highs. Now, its retest suggests failure.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Gapping down Friday in reaction to Employment Situation report was recovered back up into positive territory until 79.80 resistance was touched. The open’s gap will want to be tested as support, and sooner rather than later would be likelier to hold than to extend down.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Fresh highs overnight were retraced in reaction to Friday morning’s Employment Situation report, but only to fill the gap back down to Thursday’s 1.3855 close. Thursday’s breakout attempt wasn’t confirmed, and there is no requirement to retest Friday’s high before extending the pullback to 1.3800.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s reaction down to the Employment Situation report immediately tested the pattern’s 1333.00 pullback limit down to 1326.60. It reacted up instead of breaking lower, which would have been premature. But the behavior does at least filling the gap back to the 1349.00 target Thursday solidified the range’s upper end.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report fell to fresh lows, coming to within a nickel of fulfilling the outstanding 20.70 pullback target.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The reaction down to Friday’s Employment Situation report fell through the pullback’s next potential objective at 131-06, but also extended to fill the month-old gap at 130-22. Avoiding its test at the prior low delayed a buy signal, but also warned that the high’s retest would fail — which it has, so not holding this area and recovering  immediately would be bearish. Holding 131-06 resistance maintains potential to extend the decline.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The rally from 100.15‘s pullback objective extended higher Friday to 102.90, intersecting with the previous consolidation’s downtrending resistance whose recovery would confirm the pullback had ended.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s bounce back to the 4.65 buy signal reacted down intraday Friday, but largely recovered, still not resolving its test.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Thursday’s BOE and ECB announcements shook up things that Friday’s Employment Situation report will other reinforce or contradict. Either would be predictive at this stage of much of the coverage. But the most credible would be improvement in Crude Oil, which may have completed a corrective dip.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The reaction to Thursday morning’s BOE and ECB statements triggered an early dip that probed the decline’s previously tested 79.80 target down to 79.60. A second consecutive lower close would signal a much larger downleg underway. Closing Friday back above 79.80 would help to begin forming a bottom.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s reaction to the BOE and ECB statements surged to fresh highs retesting the Island. Not closing back under at least 1.3800 now allows a second consecutive higher close Friday to signal a much larger rally underway, instead of forming a more durable top.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1349.00 target was retested Thursday, but not rejected. Its peak stopped short of probing the 1355.00 high, so the pattern is vulnerable to reacting either way on Friday’s Employment Situation report. A second consecutive higher close Friday would signal a much bigger upleg underway targeting 1378.50 and potentially 1399.00. Closing back under 1333.00 would start to signal a new downleg underway.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s bounce attacked the 21.75 limit whose recovery must be avoided to maintain the pullback’s potential to test 20.75 as support.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Not exploiting Wednesday’s bounce from Tuesday’s dip to 132-08 support left the door open for Thursday to gap down and test the next lower support at 131-24. The next lower support is 131-06, and if tested in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report, would be likely to launch a significant intraday rally. Otherwise, the next available buy signal would be back above 132-10.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The pullback’s target of 100.00 (+/- 15 cents) was barely pierced by 2 cents at Thursday’s low. Recovering 101.85 and 102.45 would signal and confirm momentum reversing to retest the highs back up to 105.00.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s rally back up to Tuesday’s highs proved that Wednesday’s dip was weak-handed, but stopped short of triggering a new rally leg underway above 4.65, which was still being tested into the close.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Thursday morning’s ECB and BOE statements might help the Euro to resolve its unfinished business above, or else neutralize its attraction below — in either case, clearing the way for trending. Ripple effects among Gold and Crude Oil are likely.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday morning’s probe above Tuesday’s highs was retraced back into Tuesday’s range, avoiding a second consecutive higher close that would have confirmed an upleg underway. Sellers gained no traction for their effort, but there is still potential to retest the low’s 79.80 support.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Uptrending pivotal support was probed at Wednesday’s open, but not extended intraday. The dip wasn’t rejected, leaving open the potential for extending down anyway back to recent lows around 1.3660. Not already trending down is speaks to the attraction back up to Friday’s Island around 1.3815. The first one tested should react back to the other and beyond.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s bounce back up to 1342.00 resistance need not be probed any higher — let alone, back up to 1349.00 — before reversing back under 1328.00 and 1322.50 to launch a new downleg. But retesting 1349.00 first would form a more credible top.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s ranging didn’t invalidate the reaction down from 21.75 that is targeting 20.70.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Essentially ranging sideways Wednesday around Tuesday’s test of 132-08 support, if not firming off of it, stopped short of triggering the 132-28 buy signal that would target a retest of Monday’s highs around 133-28. Delaying a recovery much longer would make a deeper dip likelier, either to 131-24 or 131-06.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The dip back to “lower prior highs” at 102.90 was probed through prior lows to 101.15 Wednesday, and lower after the close. The is likely to extend to 100.00 (+/- 15 cents), where recovering back above 100.75 would signal momentum reversing back up to retest 104.55-104.70.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s inside day reflected weak hands, and trended down throughout to reflect pessimism. That’s not bearish, since a probe above Tuesday’s high wasn’t rejected and Tuesday’s low wasn’t broken. But the window for a rally to exploit it isn’t open indefinitely, so not yet rallying Thursday afternoon would suggest a new downleg is getting underway.

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