Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Stocks in turmoil may be affecting other markets more than stocks are being affected by them. Bonds extending their rally, Currencies checking their recent moves… There is no sign of volatility waning.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
An attraction above was left outstanding by Monday’s dip, which should remain under pressure no later than Tuesday’s noon hour before resuming its rally back above 81.25.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Firming Monday allowed the recent decline to refuel, while leaving unfinished business outstanding below — i.e. at least a third lower close to reward two consecutive lower closes.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday morning’s bounce attacked 1270.00 to within $4. Regardless of the initial bullish behavior probing above 1246.00-1248.50 resistance, a second consecutive higher close is needed to confirm that 1240.00 held, and that it does not need to be probed down to 1226.00. Meanwhile, back under 1253.00 would start to signal momentum already reversing back down.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s bounce barely even attacked 19.70 let alone tested it. This leaves downward momentum intact if Tuesday’s open doesn’t extend higher almost immediately. The gap back to Friday’s close is already creating an attraction below.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s gap up to new highs wasn’t considered bearish for not extending higher intraday. It extended sharply higher Monday to attack 134-30 on more flight-to-safety amid stocks falling further. A second consecutive higher close would require there to be at least a third eventually.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Reacting down from the rally’s 98.55 target Friday extended lower Monday. The reversal hasn’t been so productive that a fresh high can’t retest 98.55 to form a more durable top.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s test of the 4.77-4.85 pullback limit was likely to be duplicated to some degree Monday. And it was, barely, before firming on forecasts of another nationwide cold snap. A bottom to this pullback is not yet convincing, but there is no sell signal.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Two premature rally attempts this week in Gold have failed and reversed back down to support, the consequence of impatient buying. Natural Gas now seems to be making the error. Will its consequence be limited to delaying a recovery, instead of extending its pullback?

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s higher highs neutralized some attraction above, but still has left outstanding a gap up to fresh highs that has yet to be filled.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s drop didn’t hesitate extending Friday by gapping down again. The second consecutive lower close confirms that momentum has reversed down.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another impatient bounce Friday morning was attracted back down to 1240.00, this time from testing 1255.00. So long as 1246.00 and 1248.50 hold as resistance, the pullback is only likelier to extend down to at least 1226.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s gap up reversed back down quickly from testing 19.35 resistance. The gap back to Thursday’s close was filled, and held. Closing back above Friday’s 19.45 resistance would be credible for extending higher intraday.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s test of the 133-02 pullback limit was rewarded by gapping up to fresh highs Friday, perhaps fueled as much by a flight-to-safety amid stock falling broadly overnight.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The overnight reaction down from Thursday’s test of the 98.55 target closed under its 97.65 pullback limit Friday. The gap back to Thursday’s close was filled, but avoiding a retest of Thursday’s high was too pessimistic to be confident that the trend is necessarily reversing down already just because upside attractions are neutralized.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The pullback extended to its 4.77-4.85 limit, probing an extra nickel deeper, before recovering back above 4.90. Closing higher without delay Monday would suggest momentum had reversed up. That said, a little more backing-and-filling of the 4.77-4.85 area would be more appropriate first.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas pulled back hard from retesting its high. That’s not necessarily bearish. But it’s not yet bullish.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s gap up extended higher intraday, but still peaked short of filling the gap back to last Wednesday’s close. The attraction remains outstanding, and in-play, so any pullback should be recovered.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The rejection of last Thursday’s false break higher was almost completed at this Thursday’s gap down to 1.3580. The gap back to last Wednesday’s 1.3545 was filled by extending down through the session. A lot of unfinished business below was neutralized, which might allow a bounce. But the resolution should be down, especially considering that the gap was barely filled at the session low.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Rallying prematurely Wednesday to attack 1270.00 resistance didn’t relieve the pattern of its likelihood for pulling back further to test 1240.00, which Thursday morning’s drop fulfilled. That would have been bullish Wednesday morning, and may still resolve higher. But delaying the pullback created resistance above at 1256.00, and further downside potential to test 1226.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Failing to recover 19.70 kept the door open to extending the decline, which Thursday’s gap down to 19.10 ranged narrowly sideways. Avoiding a second consecutive lower close Friday would help the break to be false, and to launch a recovery.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The reaction down from fulfilling the 133-16 target Wednesday was almost immediate, dipping to 132-25 intraday. But closing back above the 133-02 pullback limit would prevent a downleg from beginning.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Overnight strength extended to fulfill the pattern’s 98.55 target Thursday morning. Potential for extending higher remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 97.65 as support. Closing above 98.80 would suggest the rally is extending.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s retest of Sunday night’s high had held its 5.40 resistance, and then reacted down Thursday to test 5.00, which is a 61.8% retracement of the upleg from Monday’s 4.65 low. Back above 5.34 would resume the rally. Otherwise, the pullback could first test 4.85. Back under 4.77 would signal a new downleg underway.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Turkey’s news was more surprising than the FOMC’s news. With such weighty news already released, it’s likely that Wednesday’s trend extremes are maintained for some time going forward.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s gap up was never retested that afternoon despite attacking it. Wednesday’s gap up through it reacted back down, too, but also avoided reversing into negative territory just like Tuesday. The likelier scenario continues to be resolving up.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
An overnight plunge in reaction to Turkey’s interest rate hike  was recovered well before the FOMC news. But the recovery didn’t extended in reaction to the FOMC news, suggesting that the gap down to Wednesday’s open will be filled.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s rally prevented extending the pullback to a constructive test of 1240.00. The attack on 1270.00 resistance was unable to extend higher. Its reaction back down to 1262.00 wasn’t very volatile following the FOMC news.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s test of 19.95 resistance was retraced to settle back under the 19.70 pullback limit that had broken lower already Tuesday. Its immediate recovery Thursday would be  credible for extending sharply higher intraday, but there is otherwise no active pattern.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The likelihood for fresh highs at 133-16 was fulfilled Wednesday. The rally is vulnerable to extending higher without delay, at least so long as 133-02 holds as support. But there is no higher objective in-play, and back under 132-12 would now signal momentum reversing down.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s surge was absorbed by Wednesday morning’s backing-and-filling. The rally didn’t exactly resume, but it was retraced enough to momentarily probe above Wednesday’s high to 97.75. There is no bullish excuse to further delay probing fresh highs well on the way to the 98.55 target.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night’s highs were probed considerably Wednesday up to 5.48, which should be the high of the retest since there was no constructive interim pullback. Back under 5.28 would signal the high’s retest had held. Closing under 5.15 and 5.03 would signal a new downleg underway.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil came back with a vengeance Tuesday, compensating for its delay and its extended pullback that began just as nearby resistance was being attacked. The turbulence there suggests that its target will hold when tested.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s gap up was retraced only momentarily into negative territory. But the balance of the session never retested the open’s gap. And the gap wants to be filled, leaving its attraction outstanding to enable resuming the rally without delay.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
An overnight dip into Tuesday’s gap down was recovered in reaction to the morning’s econ reports. The morning’s probe of positive territory didn’t hold, and Monday’s ~1.3650 low was tested through Tuesday afternoon.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s post-close drop reacted up Tuesday morning to test 1262.00, but still extended down to probe fresh lows under 1249.00. So long as 1252.50 isn’t recovered, the pullback should extend down to 1240.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing above 19.70 Monday didn’t prevent gapping down to and through it Tuesday, drifting to fresh lows. If not recovered immediately at Wednesday’s open, the pullback is next targeting 19.35.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
An overnight probe under the 132-12 pullback limit tried to recover into Tuesday morning, but 132-22 resistance pushed back to 132-12. A retest of the overnight 133-08 high by at least another quarter-point remains likely.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s open gapped up to the 96.25 buy signal and extended sharply higher to 97.60. The balance of the session ranged narrowly at the open’s peak, but fresh highs targeting 98.55 remain intact.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s reversal didn’t extend down any further Tuesday as the front-month rolled to Mar, trading at approximately a 14-cent discount from Feb. Its reaction up tested 4.92 resistance. Another dip has room down to 4.74 before assuming the trend is reversing down.

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