Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s post-close surge Monday extended its recovery from pre-open lows. All of which created more room to absorb selling pressure intraday Tuesday. A little more selling pressure Wednesday, without sellers gaining traction for the effort, could finalize a bottoming process for at least a substantial bounce.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s retest of Friday’s low has formed a Descending Triangle after Monday’s temporary bounce. This isn’t a sell signal, but extending under Tuesday morning’s lows would target 80.65 would target 80.45.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping up Tuesday to retest Friday’s high after Monday’s interim dip has now formed an Ascending Triangle. Extending to fresh highs would still be vulnerable to being a false breakout that reverses down sharply and fulfills the bearish pattern. That’s not equivalent to a buy signal, but the breakout could still extend up to 1.3580 or 1.3635  before trending back down.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite extending higher overnight to test 1258.00, Tuesday’s lows retested the entire 1240.00-1245.50 range as support, still possibly forming a more durable bottom.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s post-close gains were retraced before Tuesday’s open, confirming that a bigger bottoming effort is still required.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending higher Tuesday probed the highest 132-14 bounce limit up to 132-21. That should end the bounce, and back under 131-28 would signal either a retest underway of last week’s lows, or a shallower pullback targeting 131-00.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday did not probe the 94.60 buy signal, but neither did it reject Monday’s recovery from gapping down. Potential remains alive for a breakout above the current consolidation.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[ROLLING COVERAGE FORWARD TO JAN] Tuesday’s highs retested the rally’s 3.88 basis Jan (3.81 basis Dec) target that Monday’s gap up had fulfilled. Late-afternoon action was probing back above intraday highs. RSIs meanwhile diverged negatively on the retest. But the interim lows held 3.84 basis Jan (3.77 basis Dec) whose break would start to signal the rally either had ended, or was about to correct substantially.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s Sunday night plunge opened the week with extreme sentiment. As is often the case, that proved to be a sentiment extreme. The balance of the session rallied sharply. Gaining $20 from the low might seem the opposite of last week’s bearish behavior, but it’s the same elasticity — so it’s probably the same sponsorship, and not yet necessarily a bottom.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s open gapped up to attack the recent bounce’s peak. Holding 81.05 did not yet reject Friday’s drop, or prevent sellers from regaining traction.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s retest of recent highs didn’t follow-through Monday, as the open gapped down. Sellers didn’t regain control, as the session only ranged around Friday’s 1.3515 low.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite extending down sharply overnight to test 1225.70 Monday’s opening gap down reversed back up immediately to probe back into the decline’s 1240.00-1245.00 target area. Post-close action even rallied through its upper-end. The gap back to Monday’s 1228.10 opening will need to be filled eventually. But not necessarily prior to extending the bounce to test 1260.00 or 1270.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows Sunday night weren’t retested intraday Monday, as the open immediately recovered above prior lows and extended higher through the morning.  The overnight lows will need to be retested eventually.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s initial weakness was recovered back into positive territory, extending last week’s rally to resistance above 132-06, attacking 132-14 which remains in-play so long as 131-28 now holds as support.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Now we know why last week’s bounce couldn’t get through its 95.00 trigger. The Iran deal removed the threat of US attack for 6-12 months, lopping off almost $1.50 at Sunday night’s open. The equivalent to the Dec contract’s decline target was attacked overnight at 93.20, and retested more deeply Monday morning, ultimately recovering to probe back above 94.00. The pattern’s bottoming potential remains intact, but still needs to close at least above 94.60 to begin signaling momentum extending up.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Despite my own lack of confidence in the recovery, it did probe its minimum 3.81 objective Sunday night up to 3.85. The balance of the session tested and held 3.81 as resistance. Closing back under 3.77 would start to signal momentum reversing back down.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The week ended with a theme of retracement, as most recent trending reacted back toward its origin.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s dip retraced more of Wednesday’s surge, but should hold 80.65 so another surge Monday can resume the rally through 81.05.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping up Friday extended back to the origin of Wednesday’s drop. The drop should resume Monday to prevent the retracement from extending into a new rally leg.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Ranging sideways around 1240.00-1245.50 Friday did not create any new room to absorb selling pressure. Aggressive selling pressure would be more capable of gaining traction without first bouncing, preferably up to 1270.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s “inside day” offered no clues as to whether the decline would extend further, or if a corrective bounce might develop first.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s recovery extended nearly 1 point higher Friday. Not reacting down immediately Monday would require testing 132-06 or 132-14 before becoming vulnerable again to reacting down for a retest of 131-14.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s bounce up to 95.00 resistance did not extend higher Friday. A corrective dip to back under 94.00 was largely recovered, keeping alive potential for a breakout by Monday afternoon or Tuesday’s open.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s gap up to test 3.77 only ranged narrowly sideways intraday, which is not a reliable trending pattern. It is also not a sell signal. The bounce may yet touch 3.81 resistance that was already indicated, but I am still unable to confirm its momentum remains intact.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s extra double-digit slide fell neatly into the target created by last month’s low. Bouncing immediately would help to form a bottom, but it would not qualify as that bottom. Meanwhile, Crude Oil has been bottoming for some time, and need not further delay a recovery.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s pullback was shallow, but that’s all it took to avoid confirming Wednesday’s break higher. This doesn’t prevent another break higher Friday — it’s just not required.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s bounce was shallow, but that’s all it took to avoid confirming Wednesday’s break lower. This doesn’t prevent another break lower Friday — it’s just not required.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s post-close dive to 1240.20 was retested intraday Thursday down to 1235.80, fulfilling the outstanding 1240.00-1245.50 target. Thursday’s 1244.00 close was testing the 1246.00 open, close enough to suggest the drop’s momentum was waning. A reversal signal would be premature, but extending down immediately would make would make bottoming more difficult prior to extending down sharply.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s 19.70 intraday low held a test of Wednesday’s post-close low, recovering enough to end the day testing the open’s gap around 19.90. That suggests the drop’s momentum is waning, but it is far short of yet signaling momentum has reversed up.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh lows down to 130-14 were recovered back into positive territory to at least 131-10. Closing back above 131-14 at any time would signal the drop had ended, still subject to confirmation from a second consecutive higher close.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Early strength Thursday above 94.00 was already expected to extend higher intraday. Thursday’s rally tested 95.00, needing at least one more higher close Friday to start signaling a multi-session recovery attempt underway.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh highs Thursday up to 3.74 were retraced back down to Monday’s “lower prior highs,” testing 3.67. This still raises suspicions that a durable rally is actually underway, let alone targeting 3.81. But the rally can get a benefit of the doubt so long as 3.63 holds as support.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Wednesday’s 1-2 punch from ECB comments and FOMC Minutes triggered big tests of big levels. Bigger trending — perhaps bigger reversals — could be underway by week’s end.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday and Tuesday’s probes under last week’s lows finally began reversing back up Wednesday morning in reaction to Draghi’s comments. The 81.05 signal was tested, and closing any higher Thursday would confirm momentum has reversed up.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s dive ended the day testing 1.3470 as support. Closing lower Thursday would confirm the bounce had ended, and that momentum was reversing down.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows targeting 1241.00-1245.50 were left outstanding by October’s bounce. Wednesday’s intraday plunge to 1255.00 was exceeded post-close to test 1240.00 in reaction to FOMC Minutes that hinted of tapering. There isn’t much downside remaining for this leg, if any, without becoming something much more substantial.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s intraday test of 20.00 was exceeded on the FOMC news down to 19.80. Closing back above 20.35 would start to signal the drop’s sponsorship had been expended.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s dip under 132-16 eventually extended down to the FOMC news and probed prior lows. Closing back above 131-14 would signal the drop’s momentum was lapsing, to be confirmed by a second consecutive higher close. There is otherwise not currently any lower objective.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The “momentary dip on Wednesday [that] wouldn’t be inappropriate to finish forming a bottom” was produced by a blip-down to 93.00. Its recovery never extended higher to actually reverse momentum up, but any initial strength Thursday would be credible for launching a new upleg.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday to 3.63 suggests the interim dip was only a correction. A second consecutive higher close Thursday would confirm that a new rally leg was underway, initially targeting 3.81. Closing back under 3.56 Thursday would trap Wednesday’s buyers and help to fuel a retest of the lows.

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