Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight  Monday’s breathers resolved aggressively Tuesday, as if to compensate for their delays.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s surge only returned to Friday’s high, where Monday’s breather began. The one-day rest and the catalyst to resume the rally should have been more productive, if the rally were actually resuming. At least a slightly higher high intraday is likely, but look out below if it closes back under prior highs.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s plunge seemed to resume the rally. At least it extended it to fresh lows at 1.3450, but that was early, and the balance of the session did not extend down. A bottom Wednesday would be premature, but not much.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dropping back down to 1306.00 without closing under it Tuesday doesn’t require another bounce like it did Friday, but it does allow another bounce anyway. Meanwhile, the downtrend remains intact.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows Tuesday continue trending toward the 21.35 and 20.70 targets, so long as 21.90 now holds as resistance.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s breather above 134-00 resolved down sharply Tuesday, touching the outstanding 132-24 target at the session low. It triggered a bounce, but was much too shallow to suggest that momentum may yet be reversing up.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The decline resumed Tuesday, compensating somewhat for Monday’s delay by extending to within 25 cents of the 92.85 objective, which remains in-play so long as 94.60 now holds bounces.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s pre-open low came within a penny of fulfilling the decline’s next target at 3.37 before reversing up. The intradeay low was 3.40, whose recovery would signal a bottom forming. In fact, the balance of the session rallied sharply to to test 3.48. A retest of 3.37-3.40 isn’t required before extending higher, but it’s going to be difficult recovering above 3.51 without at least one day spent backing-and-filling.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Monday was a day for breathers. Gold’s drop took a breather as was indicated Friday morning. Crude Oil’s drop took a breather by slowing its descent. Currencies took breathers by forming “inside days.” If they’re all going to pause together, there’s no reason why they shouldn’t resume together, as well.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s “inside day” did not even begin to reject the decline underway through Friday afternoon. But it doesn’t preclude there being an extra dip Tuesday down to the 80.30 pullback limit before resuming the rally.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s highs barely pierced Friday’s highs enough to disqualify the session from being an “inside day.” Still, a slingshot back down could be achieved by a fresh recovery high testing the 1.3600 bounce limit.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The corrective bounce tested 1321.50 resistance Monday, which is enough to allow the decline to resume, although it is not yet required.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Another “inside day” Monday further confirmed that a lot of selling pressure had been expended and fulfilled during the drop. But the delayed recovery now underscores how little buying interest there is. A corrective bounce is becoming less likely to interrupt the decline’s resumption.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s bounce didn’t begin to gain traction that might reverse momentum up. And the bounce still has room up to 134-12 before suggesting the drop may have lost its own momentum.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
A shallow probe of fresh lows overnight attacking 94.00 did not extend down intraday Monday. While that does create some suspicion of whether the decline’s momentum remains intact, it doesn’t begin to invalidate the decline’s momentum, whose bounce limit wasn’t even attacked.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down to fresh lows Monday put into play 3.37, whose test would then require holding 3.40 to maintain the decline’s momentum. Regardless, gapping down on Monday rarely produces an immediate recovery.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Friday’s Highlight While Gold has been plummeting, Crude Oil has suddenly broken under prior lows. Its new breakout might not be independent of Precious Metals weakness if it were to bounce with Precious Metals on Monday.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Having left at least a little upside on the table following Thursday’s surge, the impending weekend illiquidity exacerbated that with another surge Friday. Prior highs at 80.85 were retested, and held. Extending any higher through Monday’s close probably has to take the form of extending higher aggressively. The rally’s momentum still remains intact so long as 80.30 holds as support.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Slightly lower lows would have fulfilled the drop’s minimum objective Thursday. But leaving it on the table leveraged the shallow attraction into a deep plunge Friday, which tested prior lows at 1.3480. Extending the drop without delay at this stage probably needs to take the form of doing so aggressively, but a pullback has room up to 1.3600.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Still testing 1321.50 at Thursday’s close required sellers not to skip a beat if the drop was going to extend down without delay. The overnight drop fulfilled that, and then set-up a similar challenge by testing 1306.00 support intraday. Regardless, the second consecutive lower close confirms Thursday’s breakout, requiring at least one more lower close eventually. Holding 1306.00 as support Friday would make the path down likely to include a bounce first.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s narrow inside day underscored that a lot of selling pressure was expended and fulfilled in Thursday’s drop. A corrective bounce is likely before resuming the decline.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s second consecutive lower close had confirmed Wednesday’s breakout, and Friday’s lower close has already fulfilled the setup’s minimum requirement of a third lower close. There is still potential down to 132-24, so long as 134-12 were to hold as resistance.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s dip to relevant support didn’t find any buyers Friday morning before extending under prior lows to test 94.55. Now bounces have room up to 96.25 before signaling momentum is reversing up.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s fresh lows suggest even lower lows on Monday, which tends to be a pattern with Natty Gas. Probing fresh lows Monday and closing positive would be the first opportunity for any kind of bottoming.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s tumble since Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC announcement has quickly fallen back to critical support. Currencies have extended their moves that were underway already. Two days of illiquidity are just hours away — essentially three days, considering Monday’s Veteran’s Day holiday — so, early trending Friday may not be intact by the close.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The confirmed buy signal already produced its minimum third higher close Thursday that probed 80.05-80.10. There should also be a test of 80.55 resistance, so an immediate dip should recover if 80.55 hasn’t yet been touched.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The confirmed sell signal already produced its minimum third lower close Thursday, but the drop should visit 1.3535-1.3565 before ending.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s post-close drop was extended overnight and not recovered Thursday, extending down to 1318.50. The close was still testing 1321.50. And a second consecutive lower close Friday under Thursday’s range would confirm at least “lower prior highs” at 1283.00 are in-play, and possibly fresh lows testing 1245.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s post-close drop was extended overnight and not recovered Thursday, testing 21.75 at the open. Closing back above 22.35 would target 22.90, but the drop should otherwise extend down to retest the two-week old opening gap at 20.70.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s second consecutive lower close confirmed Wednesday’s fresh low close, which followed Tuesday’s attack on last week’s highs. A fresh high would have been preferred for fulfilling the pattern’s retest of prior highs, and immediately recovering above 135-00 Friday would suggest that Thursday’s confirmation was not valid. Meanwhile, a break lower targeting 132-24 is underway.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s fresh lows were still testing 96.35 at the close, which allows a rally effort to be credible. Otherwise, extending the decline almost any lower Friday would maintain the pattern’s potential to probe under 93.00,

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows Thursday now allow room up to 3.66-3.71 before signaling that momentum is reversing up. Meanwhile, the decline can still extend down to 3.44 before bottoming.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Euro managed to confirm Tuesday’s signal. But only in a late reaction to FOMC. It gets a benefit of the doubt… if not rejected immediately Thursday.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s second consecutive higher close confirms Tuesday’s break. It came late, so rejecting it early Thursday would be a problem to the recovery.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s bounce tested the 1.3770 sell signal, and then reacted down late on FOCM. The second consecutive lower close confirmed Tuesday’s break.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s retest of the lower-end of the rally’s 1360.00-1362.00 target area was not optimal for ending the rally, but it may have been enough. The post-close reaction to FOMC fell under 1340.00. The trend has reversed down so long as 1346.00-1348.00 isn’t recovered at Thursday’s open.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The fresh high testing 23.05 was fulfilled by Wednesday’s gap up. The FOMC reaction drove price back down to 22.40. The trend will try to reverse back down so long as 22.70 isn’t recovered through Thursday’s close..

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s dip did serve to slingshot a recovery back into the range. The retest of 135-25 highs was attacked to within 4 ticks, when FOMC knocked it back down under Tuesday’s low to 134-19. One more lower close would signal the trend has reversed down.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s shallow dip was followed by one more substantial on Wednesday. It tested natural support at 97.05, a 61.8% retracement back to the lows. There is still support at 96.70 and 96.35 that could launch a rally leg. But any rally prior to their test would be premature and not credible.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage to Dec from Nov at a 12-cent premium] Wednesday’s narrow range did not even attempt to reject Tuesday’s fresh low testing 3.61 (basis Dec, 3.50 basis Nov), further suggesting that prior lows must be probed before a bottom can form.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…