Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Tuesday’s price action fulfilled the likelihood for volatility to expand considerably after Veteran’s Day. That likelihood encompasses Wednesday, too. Having fulfilled so much selling pressure at Tuesday’s lows, could the ongoing volatility take the form of reversing up sharply Wednesday?

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s choppy session fluctuated narrowly around unchanged, essentially confirming that Monday’s dip gained no traction to reverse momentum down. More interesting was the lack of trending while other major markets like Crude and Gold slid sharply.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s firmer session differed from Monday only slightly in price, and not much otherwise. Both gapped up slightly, traded flat, and remained entirely within Friday’s range. As noted above, not trending diverged from so many other markets, suggesting that the lows would be attacked if not also retested.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Filling the month-old gap Friday allowed at least a corrective bounce to form, but Monday’s narrow ranging resolved down sharply Tuesday as the decline extended through its next targets to test 1260.00. The decline’s momentum remains intact so long as bounces now hold 1268.50, and back above 1274.50 would signal momentum reversing up.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s resumption of the decline from testing the 21.35 target extended down to and through its 20.70 target. Closing back above 20.70 would at least start to suggest the drop’s momentum has ended.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh lows Tuesday tested a relevant support at 131-08. Closing back above 131-26 would start to signal momentum may be reversing up, so long as pullbacks then held 131-14 as support.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s retest of the bounce limit resolved down Tuesday to fresh lows, fulfilling the longstanding 92.85 target to within 1 penny. Closing back above 93.50 would be the minimum requirement to begin suggesting the decline’s momentum has ended. Back above 94.60 would signal the trend reversing up.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Unfinished business below, no upside attractions, and lack of momentum did not prevent Tuesday’s open from gapping up to fresh highs. Ultimately, 3.63 held its test as resistance, leaving no time or room for delaying a retest of the lows.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Reduced liquidity during the Veteran’s Day holiday inhibited trending Monday, but it probably also influence price action on Friday. How much in either case is irrelevant. But the sequence does suggest that volatility will expand considerably Tuesday and Wednesday.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Veteran’s Day and no weekend developments combined to produce a narrowly ranging Monday session that had no impact on the pattern.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s “inside day” neither reinforced nor undermined the potential for extending or reversing the decline.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Not immediately rallying Monday suggests that the decline is not finished. After Friday filled an outstanding gap and finally produced a third lower close, ranging narrowly doesn’t prevent a bounce, but it undermines a bounce’s ability to gain traction.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s narrow ranging around the decline’s 21.35 target that already has been thoroughly tested doesn’t prevent a bounce, but it does suggest a bounce will only refuel sellers to extend the decline to its 20.70 target.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Slightly lower lows Monday extended Friday’s steep decline, making at least another lower close likely before any rally effort could have potential for reversing the trend up.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The decline has yet to resume, even if only to probe fresh lows down to the outstanding 92.85 target. Monday’s flat-to-higher ranging probed the 94.60 bounce limit to also test 95.30 resistance, whose recovery would allow at least a corrective bounce to develop.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Narrow ranging Monday did not probe any higher high, or retrace any more of Thursday’s range than what Friday’s highs already held. There is no particular timing to attacking or retesting recent lows, but not extending higher after Friday’s “inside day” does suggest any earlier rally effort would be premature.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Friday’s Highlight Gold’s long-awaited new low close takes the pattern to a new phase. The assumption remains that the decline is ongoing, while introducing potential for a corrective non-noise bounce, which would be vulnerable to becoming a new ongoing rally.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Similar to Tuesday’s surge that was constrained by its two-day old high, Friday’s surge held Thursday’s 81.56 high. Is it a top? Thursday’s opening gap up was neutralized. None of which precludes trying to extend higher, but closing back under Thursday’s 80.70 low would start to signal the trend reversing down.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday retraced almost all of Thursday’s post-open session-long bounce, testing Thursday’s deep opening gap down at 1.3367. The test held, so Thursday’s breakout attempt was not confirmed, as is is appropriate following the similar Tuesday-Wednesday sequence. None of which precludes lower lows Monday, but all of which suggests the decline is nearing a low — and that recovering Wednesday’s 1.3550 high would launch a new rally leg.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s resumed Thursday’s breakout attempt that had held above 1306.00, plunging to 1280.50. The pattern’s outstanding minimum objective of a third lower close has been fulfilled. None of which requires a bottom or even a trading low, but there is a vulnerability at least to bouncing, since Friday’s low filled the gap back to October 16’s 1282.00 close. Bounces need to hold 1300.00-1301.50 to maintain the decline’s momentum, next targeting 1274.50 and 1268.50.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sympathy with Gold’s drop was limited to retesting 21.35 which was had been attacked and tested the two prior sessions. Bounces should hold 21.55-21.66 to maintain the 20.70 target.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s unconvincing rally up to 133-28 was rejected by the reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report, plunging through the Tuesday’s 132-24 low to 131-18. The test of month-old prior lows could produce a bounce up to “higher prior lows” at 132-30 before resuming the decline to 129-30. Closing above 133-08 would start to signal a bigger corrective bounce underway.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The decline did not extend Friday, but the 94.60 bounce limit continued to hold, keeping alive the attraction to retest last week’s lows down to 92.85.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s bounce doesn’t change the pattern’s near-term thesis, that more bottoming must preceded a credible rally. Friday’s high retraced 61.8% of the drop from Thursday’s high, which is natural resistance. Friday’s high also retested Thursday’s opening gap up, neutralizing its attraction above. Some sort of retest of 3.44 down to 3.37 remains likely. Otherwise, a fresh high that closes above 3.63 would start to suggest a bigger bounce is underway, anyway.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Surprise, surprise, surprise… The ECB rate cut whacked currencies hard. And that whacked other markets. Now comes the confirming session Friday — or, not — that either reinforces the moves or signals their end(s).

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s pullback wasn’t deep enough to reverse momentum down, or even to signal the rally had ended. Thursday’s surprise ECB rate cut explained why, launching a surge to sharply higher highs. Retracing more than 61.8% of the surge still held prior highs as support, being likely to retest Thursday’s highs.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s bounce wasn’t high enough to reverse momentum up, or even to signal the decline had ended. Thursday’s surprise ECB rate cut explained why, launching a plunge to sharply higher lows. Retracing 61.8% of the plunge still held under prior lows, being likely to retest Thursday’s lows.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s reaction to the ECB’s surprise rate cut triggered a spike down to fresh lows at 1296.00. That created a bounce limit up to 1311.00, which was tested. Back under 1306.00 would signal the decline had resumed. It held, but 1311.00 wasn’t recovered, so a bigger detour bounce is not yet signaled.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 22.05 bounce limit was being attacked when the ECB rate hike blind-sided the market. The reaction’s spike down essentially fulfilled the initial 21.35 objective before bouncing, leaving outstanding an attraction to 20.70.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s narrow ranging after touching the decline’s 132-24 target did resolve up, at least initially. Thursday’s bounce to 134-24 retraced almost all of the drop from Monday’s close back up to Tuesday’s opening print. That’s not yet enough for a buy signal — a second consecutive higher close is still needed — especially ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s open did immediately reject Wednesday’s bounce, at least the portion of that had exceeded the 94.60 bounce limit. A retest of the lows that also visits the 92.85 target remains likely, so long as 95.30 isn’t recovered.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The suspicious rally didn’t prevent very positive anticipation ahead of Thursday’s IEA report. And the very positive action didn’t prevent retracing it all back to almost unchanged. There was even some optimism left intact, which is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective, and maintains potential for retesting the lows.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Can Gold fulfill its minimum objective of at least one more lower close, without detouring up significantly? Can Crude Oil resume its decline long enough for one more new low close? Have currencies reached turning points? These questions should have likely answers by week’s end.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s surge that only retested Friday’s high, despite Monday’s breather, warned of weakness. Wednesday’s dip confirmed it, but didn’t fall far enough to signal momentum reversing down.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s drop to fresh lows that only retested Friday’s low, despite Monday’s breather, warned of strength. Wednesday’s rally confirmed it, but didn’t rise far enough to signal momentum reversing up.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Holding 1306.00 Tuesday didn’t threaten the decline’s traction, and Wednesday’s bounce held 1321.50 resistance. There is no excuse for not yet resuming the decline before Thursday afternoon, unless the decline is being intervened by a bigger detour.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s bounce retraced a healthy 61.8% of the recent slide, suggesting the decline is ready to resume. The bounce has some room higher up to 22.05, but there is no reason for much further delay to resuming the decline.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Dull narrow ranging Wednesday after touching the long-standing 132-24 target suggests any further recovery would be suspicious. Firming ahead of Friday’s NFP report would then likely be bearish.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Bouncing well above the 94.60 bounce limit Wednesday suggests the decline is ending. Wednesday’s high should not be exceeded above 95.30 intraday if a fresh low can be tested down to the 92.85 target that was attacked to within 25 cents Tuesday.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s brief spike up doesn’t change the two-day bounce’s origin, which should still be retested somehow — at least down to 3.40 if not also the 3.37 overnight lows — before a bottom can form and launch a durable rally leg.

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