Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s long-outstanding objective to test fresh lows didn’t take long once the recent distribution ended. While a lot of selling pressure has been satisfied, an immediate recovery would be suspicious.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s recovery attempt was retraced entirely Wednesday. Closing any lower Thursday would signal a new downleg underway, so the rally’s resumption cannot afford to hesitate.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s resumption of the decline was half-hearted, so Wednesday’s bounce wasn’t surprising. Since 28.55 held its test, resuming the decline Thursday would still be credible.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite extending Tuesday’s plunge overnight, Wednesday’s open had retraced much of the extra drop. Another downleg extended much further to finally test the 1550.00 target area. Bouncing more than $10 from testing 1547.50 would be the first suggestion that the drop had ended.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The drop extended down sharply to 26.67. Bounces must now hold 27.29 to maintain the decline’s momentum.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The rally had been unlikely to extend by gapping, so Wednesday’s open trended up to the 145-14 target, and to within 2 ticks of the 145-22 target. Back under 145-14 would signal the rally had ended.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Absorbing two consecutive intraday dips recovering to 97.00 from 96.00 didn’t allow any further hesitation Wednesday before resuming the rally. But the open immediately dipped, and the session extended down to this week’s lowest levels attacking 94.00. Unless rejected immediately Thursday, 99.00‘s test will require forming a new accumulation pattern.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
There was nothing bullish about Tuesday failing to reject yet another test of 3.97, so Wednesday’s session dipped to fresh lows at 3.91. There is no signal.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s sudden break Tuesday wasn’t so sudden. A distributive pattern has been forming since last week’s peak at the corrective bounce’s target.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s recovery back up to 83.10 can’t afford to hesitate in order to avoid resuming the decline.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday needed to be the bounce’s peak to maintain the corrective bounce template. Tuesday’s immediate reaction down has been too muted to confirm it is not only noise, and  that momentum is actually reversing down.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s sudden $26 tumble was the break that had been likely for Monday’s open — not necessarily so substantial, but every bit as sudden. Buyers never exploited the delay, keeping the door open to resuming the decline. Now that 1574.50 is being tested, bounces should hold any test of 1581.00-1583.00 to maintain potential for resolving down under 1570.00 to test 1550.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The consequence to not rejecting Thursday’s break under 28.33 by Friday’s close could have been limited to Monday’s fresh low at 27.80. But Tuesday’s plunge to 27.15 only assures a recovery will be delayed by at least one more lower close.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s open still didn’t gap up, so the rally still didn’t extend. But now that the consolidation has persisted for so many consecutive sessions, gapping up is unlikely for extending the rally to 145-14 / 145-22.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s dip repeated Monday’s pattern, including a recovery to at least test 97.00. But the delay in resuming the rally at this stage of the pattern is only diminishing the potential for extending durably through its 99.00 target.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Without immediately rejecting Monday’s retest of 3.97 Tuesday, there is no greater likelihood of extending to fresh highs.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Silver’s fresh low Monday must be rejected immediately to even begin suggesting that last week’s bottoming effort can resume. Meanwhile, any delay to Gold extending higher would be bearish. So, both precious metals falling in unison Tuesday would be appropriate if recoveries are going to be avoided.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s drop back to last Monday-Tuesday’s 82.90 lows retraced 61.8% of the rally to last week’s high, so there is no reason to further delay resuming the rally to retest last week’s high.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s bounce filled a gap back to last Tuesday’s close, while also testing 1.2855 resistance, so the decline has no excuse not to resume immediately.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Not immediately diving Monday does suggest that last week’s pullbacks were absorbed. Now the burden of proof has shifted, and there is no reason to further delay launching an upleg. So, any further delay in rallying would again be bearish.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s attack on Wednesday’s low had left the door open to launching a recovery leg. Monday’s probe under  Wednesday’s lows slammed it shut.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite Monday’s dip extending the pullback to 144-00, recovering intraday back to last week’s highs still allows the rally to resume by gapping up.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s opening dip back under 96.00 was retraced almost entirely back above 97.00. Closing above 97.20 would confirm the leg targeting 99.00 remains intact.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s dip had neutralized the attraction back to a lower gap. Its retest by Monday’s gap down was recovered back into positive territory.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Silver’s “inside day” Thursday bought a little time for the pattern to launch an upleg. But only a little time.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s 83.40 close reacted down Thursday by gapping back under 83.20 and extending to attack 83.00. The gap back to Wednesday’s close should inhibit a downleg from forming.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s gap up ranged sideways above Wednesday’s 1.2800 high and under Tuesday’s 1.2850 low. The gap down to Wednesday’s 1.2780 close should attract price back down, so long as 1.2865 is not recovered.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s gap down through 1602.00 (basis Jun, 1601.00 basis Apr) extended quickly back to Tuesday’s 1595.00 low, then ranged there narrowly. There was no bullish reason to revisit that low, making a sudden reaction down likely of the pattern still intends to avoid launching a new upleg — so, without resolving down suddenly, a new upleg would be likely.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday afternoon’s attack on Wednesday’s lows avoided probing fresh lows, keeping alive the potential for a recovery above 28.65 to extend higher.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s narrow ranging within Wednesday’s range kept is now likely to extend the rally by gapping up to attack its 145-14 / 145-22 targets.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The rally extended higher Thursday without hesitation to test 97.00. The 99.00 target remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 95.95 as support.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
A “pivot reversal” session formed Thursday by gapping down and ending the day under the morning’s 4.03 low, rallying intraday for just long enough to pierce Wednesday’s 4.10 high. The setup is normally bearish, although filling the gap back to Wednesday’s 3.97 close does allow a fresh high Monday to qualify as a breakout anyway.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Silver’s early drop to a new low was recovered back above relevant support. Unless repeated immediately, Thursday should rally obviously, back to recent highs, and eventually through them.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday night’s rally through 83.20-83.40 gapped up Wednesday to fresh highs testing 83.50. Pullbacks must now hold tests of 83.30 to maintain the breakout, and a close under 83.00 would signal momentum reversing down sharply.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s immediate follow-through to fresh lows was appropriate for Monday’s breakout, since Tuesday’s confirmation was only a new low close. The trend remains down so long as 1.2865 is not recovered.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s recovery back above 1596.50-1601.00 neutralized an outstanding gap above. Sellers must retake control by Thursday afternoon to avoid a new upleg launching. (Coverage rolls tomorrow to Jun)

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap down to 28.32 narrowly avoided piercing prior lows. So, recovering the intraday low’s new low to close back above 28.65 left no unfinished business below. Almost any higher high initially Thursday, confirmed above 29.10, could extend up above 30.35.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The delayed breakout above 143-22 compensated for its delay Wednesday by gapping up sharply to 144-16. Extending higher without delay Thursday would target 145-14 and 145-22.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The opportunity for a pullback Wednesday was only shallow as an initial dip was recovered to fresh highs testing 96.85. The 99.00 target remains intact, now likely to be met without much further hesitation.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s failure to confirm Monday’s break lower was rewarded by probing fresh highs Wednesday above 4.00. A second consecutive higher close Thursday would target 4.40..

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