Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s plunge Wednesday proved its bounce was only a correction. And that the correction has ended.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday night’s dip was recovered into Wednesday’s open, producing only an “inside day” that kept alive the pullback’s momentum targeting 81.40.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Extending to fresh highs Tuesday night at 1.3128 was reversed in time for Wednesday’s gap down, whic extended to 1.3060. Back above 1.3095 would resume the rally next targeting 1.3140 with potential to 1.3325.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
While Monday’s action following Friday’s surge had made Tuesday’s rally likely, Tuesday’s rally made Wednesday likely to reverse down. Closing any higher was not possible for a corrective bounce. Wednesday did reverse down, sharply. The open gapped down to the 1579.00 pullback limit, extended through its 1574.50 sell signal, and soon plunged to 1556.50. The drop should extend to fresh lows so long as 1574.50 isn’t recovered.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s 27.45 lows retraced 61.8% of Tuesday’s rally from Monday’s close. Unless 27.90 were recovered, the pullback is still targeting a test of 27.15 “lower prior highs.”

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite having fulfilled and held 148-00 resistance, a new downleg was unlikely without yet retesting 148-00. But the drop extended down sharply Wednesday to 145-29. Almost any fresh low could lead to capitulation. Otherwise, a corrective bounce should begin almost immediately.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday’s gap down held within a nickel of the 93.35 pullback limit, expending almost all available selling pressure without it gaining any traction. A complete retracement into positive territory recovered to fresh highs testing 94.75 to signal a new rally leg underway.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s narrow ranging around Monday’s lows down to 4.00 had trapped shorts without them gaining traction, so that any early strength Wednesday could rally sharply intraday. Potential up to Monday’s 4.18 high was attacked to within 2 cents before retracing. Extending higher through the EIA report would be credible for extending higher into and out of the weekend.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold and Silver were likely to resume trending Tuesday. And their resumed trending was also likely not to extend Wednesday. Tuesday’s strong rallies left a little on the table, but retracing any initial gains Wednesday could trigger a more substantial drop intraday.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s shallow bounce was rejected by Tuesday’s gap down that extended back under 82.50, keeping alive potential down to 81.40.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping up Tuesday and extending higher confirms the rally remains intact, next targeting 1.3140 with potential to 1.3325.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having consolidated Friday’s surge Monday, Tuesday resumed the rally as was expected. The $17 rally tested 1590.00 could extend Wednesday up to 1597.00 so long as 1579.00 holds as support. Back under 1574.50 would signal a new downleg underway.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
While almost any immediate trending at Tuesday’s open was likely to be false, Tuesday’s open gapped up above prior highs at 27.30 and extended sharply higher to 28.00. Unless 28.15 is recovered through Wednesday’s close, back under 27.65 would target a retest of lower prior highs down to 27.15.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s test of the 147-14 pullback limit extended down initially at Tuesday’s open before recovering back up to 147-14. Its recovery Wednesday would target a retest of 148-00. Closing under 146-28 would trigger a deeper dip targeting 145-14/145-22.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s post-open dip to 92.86 seems to have sufficed for attracting more recovery sponsorship, at least for a late-morning surge to test 94.50. That fills a gap back to last Wednesday, so now pullbacks must hold 93.35-93.65 to avoid another downleg.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s narrow ranging around Monday’s lows keeps open the door for any early strength Wednesday to retest Monday’s 4.18 high.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Neither Gold nor Silver extended Friday’s bounces Monday. That’s not necessarily bearish, and doesn’t undermine potential for extending higher Tuesday. But extending higher Tuesday would now be likely to peak.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s bounce to 82.90 recognized the Yen’s continued decline, but there remains potential for the bounce to test 82.10-83.20 before reversing back down.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Ranging narrowly Monday as the spotlight moved to the Yen kept alive potential for extending the bounce.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s pullback to 1566.60 did not produce a second consecutive higher close that would have confirmed Friday’s close above 1575.00 was extending. But neither did it reverse momentum down, leaving the door open to fresh highs Tuesday.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s narrow sideways ranging did not confirm momentum had reversed up. Almost any immediate trending at Tuesday’s open should be short-lived, and reversed more substantially in the opposite direction.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s probe of 147-26/148-00 had held as resistance through the close, and Monday’s opening gap down tested the 147-14 pullback limit

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Sunday night’s attack on 93.75-94.15 resistance was retraced into Monday’s open. Recovering back up to 93.25 was enough only to probe recent highs, and not to reverse momentum back up.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Despite extending higher initially Monday to 4.18, a reversal back into negative territory avoided confirming Friday’s breakout rally.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight While Gold’s sharp rally into the weekend does confirm that sellers had run out of steam, extending much higher without delay would be more in-line with a corrective bounce, instead of patiently forming a bottom.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Fresh lows Friday now require extending under 82.50 to maintain this downleg’s 81.40 target.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s probe above 1.3010 signals a larger rally underway targeting 1.3325 so long as 1.2955 now holds as support.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Only attacking 1547.50 overnight, Friday’s NFP triggered a $22 spike up that eventually extended higher to 1579.50. The recovery targeting 1594.50 would be confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Monday, and back under 1570.00 would start to signal a fresh low being possible.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s early spike above 26.95 confirms that a bottom is forming, so any dips under 27.00 should hold through the close.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 145-14 sell signal wasn’t even threatened as the rally extended sharply higher Friday up to 148-09. The rally’s momentum remains intact so long as 147-14 were to hold as support.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Having failed to bounce enough Thursday to reverse momentum up, the pattern remained vulnerable to probing fresh lows. Friday’s test of Thursday’s low down to 92.00 closed easily within Thursday’s range, suggesting that sellers are losing traction, but not necessarily that buyers are gaining any.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s basis for a Pivot Reversal indicated that almost any higher high above 3.98 could extend sharply higher into and out of the weekend. Friday’s open gapped up through it to and extended sharply higher intraday to fresh highs at 4.12. The rally remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 4.05 as support..

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s new lows haven’t stopped, they’ve just stopped extending down intraday. That doesn’t prevent there being another fresh low, and it’s not yet a buy signal, but it’s close.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s surge to fresh highs at 83.66 was reversed back into negative territory at 82.75. Bounces should hold 83.10-83.20 if the reversal intends to extend into a downleg targeting 81.40 and lower.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s plunge from 1.2855 back to the 1.2750 prior lows was recovered entirely, and then some by another surge to 1.2955. So long as pullbacks hold 1.2895, a fresh high above 1.3010 could trigger a rally targeting 1.3325.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The drop extended down overnight to 1539.50, but intraday lows held tests of 1547.50. Closing above 1557.50 would signal momentum reversing up, but a retest of 1539.50 can’t yet be discounted.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows recovered to close positive Thursday, suggesting that a bottom is forming. Back above 26.95 would confirm.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The rally extended through 145-22 to its next higher objective at 146-12. Back under 145-14 would signal momentum reversing down.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Extending down sharply Wednesday night had removed almost any chance of Thursday recovering 96.00. The dip to 92.23 stopped short of recovering back above 93.75-94.15 to signal that sellers had lost momentum.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s fresh low at 3.86 was recovered into positive territory. More important is that its open gapped up, and the close almost recovered above the open’s high, which would have formed a Pivot Reversal. Almost any higher high Fridaya bove 3.98 could extend sharply into and out of the weekend.

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