Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Now that Crude Oil has confirmed a breakout, a corrective dip or pause Wednesday would help to ensure a bigger rally underway.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Sideways ranging Tuesday probed into the 83.20-83.40 area, but no upside traction was gained that would signal the rally has resumed.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s retest of Monday’s lows almost qualifies as a second consecutive lower close to confirm a new downleg underway. Immediate follow-through Wednesday would be helpful.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s gap down retested 1601.00 and 1596.50, and almost closed under both which would have signaled a new downleg underway.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s initial dip held 28.65 support again, preventing a new downleg from being signaled.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Another reaction down from 143-22 Tuesday was recovered almost enough to trigger its buy signal.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s second consecutive higher close above 94.00 attacked 96.00. The pattern doesn’t require extending higher to 99.00 without delay, which would make the extension less durable than if Wednesday were to dip slightly first.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s bounce avoided a second consecutive lower close reacting down from the 4.00 target, which would have put into play 3.30-3.35.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil came alive Monday, but a rally can’t afford to hesitate. Any further hesitation would make the pattern very top heavy very fast.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Sunday night’s plunge under prior lows was recovered into Monday’s open, and extended back up to 83.05 resistance. Probes of 83.20-83.40 are possible, but must be exceeded to signal a new rally underway.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s probe above 1.2955 had to be rejected Monday, and the market went a long way to get that done, rejecting an overnight rally back to prior highs at 1.3095 back to new lows under 1.2850. That’s quite a shock to the system, which might be absorbed by delaying lower lows. But a second consecutive lower close Tuesday would confirm a new downleg underway.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s gap down extended to test 1588.50, but recovered back to Friday’s 1606.00 close to avoid signaling a new downleg underway. Back under 1601.00 and 1596.50 would still qualify.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s probe under prior lows held 28.45 and quickly recovered back above 28.65 support to again avoid signaling a new downleg underway.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite its breakout having become almost obligatory, Friday’s attack on the 143-22 buy signal reacted down Sunday night to test 142-24 support. The reaction was recovered entirely intraday Monday, although 143-22 was still being tested and not yet triggered.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The on-again pattern was on-again with a vengeance Monday, gapping up through 94.00 to touch 95.65 before hesitating. A second consecutive fresh high close Tuesday would confirm the breakout. Otherwise, that might have been the last opportunity to avoid a new downleg.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s opening test of 4.00 resistance held again, this time reacting down more than a dime. A second consecutive lower close Tuesday would put into play 3.30-3.35.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Despite its 2-day rally, the Euro left a gap outstanding below that should inhibit its recovery. Meanwhile, Gold seems oblivious to the currency’s gyrations, still stuck in a narrow range.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s dipped deeper into the 82.52-82.40 sell signal and held. Extending any lower would trigger a much deeper pullback. The rally’s resumption requires that Monday reverse up sharply.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Potential to retest 1.2955 as resistance was realized at Friday’s open. Then it broke sharply higher to also test 1.3020. Immediately breaking under 1.2955 Monday would be credible for extending down to new lows, potentially before the close. There is no buy signal, only room for extending the bounce to 1.3045 or 1.3070, while still being only a temporary bounce.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another dip from testing 1615.00 Friday down to 1602.50 still stopped short of breaking 1601.00 to launch a new downleg. The close was in the range, with no momentum in-play either way.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Having never confirmed its close above the 29.10 buy signal, the pattern was vulnerable, and Friday dove to test 28.65 support. Support held, for now, and another close above 29.10 should have little difficult extending.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
An overnight retest of the 143-31 high was retraced slightly, but not enough for sellers to gain traction. A probe above 144-00 has become likelier to develop, triggered above 143-22, which essentially defined Friday afternoon’s resistance.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Is the on-again / off-again pattern now on-again? Despite Thursday’s drop back to 92.15 instead of rallying through 94.00, Friday rallied above 92.15 to attack 94.00. Since sellers never gained traction in the interim, extending higher immediately Monday would be credible for extending higher sharply.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Ranging under 4.00 resistance continued into the weekend, holding Thursday’s lows as support, with no new signal.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Euro had immediately tested its bounce limit Wednesday without extending higher, so Thursday’s dip suggests the decline has resumed.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Ranging sideways Thursday, since Wednesday actually, suggests that the trending attempt will be false, and reversed more substantially in the opposite direction.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Having held the 1.2955 bounce limit Wednesday, Thursday’s gap down is presumed to be resuming the decline. One more blip-up to 1.2955 can’t yet be discounted.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s pullback from the 1615.00 target never extended under a relevant level to suggest that momentum might be reversing down. Instead, Thursday’s quick recovery spent the balance of the session ranging around 1615.00, but yet extending higher or being rejected.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The recent dip to 28.65 support helped to confirm a bottom was forming. Thursday’s sharp rally to immediately probe above the 29.10 buy signal spent the session hovering  just above it. A second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm, so long as pullbacks hold above 29.10.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite gapping down Wednesday, another gap down Thursday was required if the trend was actually reversing down. Instead, the session traded calmly around Wednesday’s range.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Having stopped short of 94.00, Wednesday’s recovery attempt was underwhelming, but left the door open to an overwhelming rally Thursday. Instead, recent tests of the 91.90 pullback limit was repeated. A second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm momentum has reversed down.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s shallow optimistic dip resolved up Thursday to test the 4.00 target, then reacted back down to Wednesday’s lows under 3.90. Any lower close would have and still could signal a bigger drop underway, confirmed under 3.85.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Awaiting Wednesday’s FOMC policy statement inhibited any intraday trending. There was none its wake, either. Apparently, the market has been day-dreaming about something else. Not sure what that is, but the Cyprus travel brochures lying on its desk might have something to do with it.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s gap down only ranged around Tuesday’s 82.85 low, even through the FOMC news, offering no new guidance.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping up Wednesday did not change the impact of Tuesday’s new low close, and only left outstanding the gap below that will try to attract price back down to it. Meanwhile, the session only ranged around the 1.2955 bounce limit and buyers did not gain traction.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s touch of the 1615.00 target reacted down a little into the close, and a little more into Wednesday, testing 1605.00. A blip-down in reaction to the FOMC news barely pierced 1600.00 before reacting back up to attack 1609.00, whose recovery was needed on a closing basis or immediately at the following open to maintain the rally’s momentum.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s drift lower held above 28.65 to avoid signaling a new downleg underway.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Wednesday helps to confirm that the 144-00 target has held as resistance. The gap back to Tuesday’s 143-20 close doesn’t have to be filled if Thursday’s open were to gap under 142-24.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s reaction down from Monday’s attack on 94.00 was retraced somewhat Wednesday, and at least not extended, maintaining potential for resuming the rally.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The attack on 4.00 slowed Wednesday ahead of Thursday’s EIA report.

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