Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s peak Tuesday touched what should be the peak of its corrective bounce. Except for possibly being probed slightly higher, extending any higher Wednesday would start to suggest a $50-60 rally lies ahead.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The decline did not resume Tuesday, but recent highs were only attacked up to 83.35 and not yet probed.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s failure to recover its intraday probe of fresh lows — if not simply for probing fresh lows — resolved down Tuesday, putting into play 1.2740-1.2765 so long as 1.2955 isn’t recovered.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s break back above 1609.00 extended higher to touch its 1615.00 target. Back under 1608.50 would signal the rally had ended. Otherwise, above 1618.00 would signal the bear market had ended.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s opening probe into negative territory held its 28.65 support and reacted up sharply to a fresh high that held its 29.10 resistance. The session closed negative, as the week-long choppy range continues as expected.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Holding the 142-24 pullback limit Monday kept alive the potential to 144-00,which was tested to within 1 tick at Tuesday’s high. Potential to 145-18 now depends upon holding 143-12 as support. Under 142-28 would signal momentum reversing down, probably to resume the decline targeting 140-08..

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The rally needed to extend higher without delay to prove that Monday’s recovery had gained traction. But 94.00 was barely attacked before reversing back down to attack the 91.90 pullback limit. Any lower would target 90.75, whose break would trigger a new downleg.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s “ineffectual optimism” didn’t prevent a break higher Tuesday that nearly fulfilled the rally’s 4.00 target.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Yet another temporary probe of fresh lows Monday, regardless of its trigger being the Cyprus news, puts the Euro hours away from either extending down on a new downleg or else making it obvious that a bottom has formed.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s reaction up to the Cyprus news was very modest considering Friday’s close at the upper-end of the 82.52-82.40 sell signal had expended all available selling pressure without gaining traction. Not extending down immediately could only react up sharply, which the open did. Now a close back under 82.65 is needed to resume any sell-off attempt.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The Cyprus news ended what had been a two-day recovery back to the prior Thursday’s close, which could not tolerate being delayed. The consequence of yet another probe of the lows did not extend down, but almost any further delay Tuesday in resuming the recovery would suggest a new downleg will soon be underway..

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The Cyprus new triggered a gap up overnight well above the outstanding 1601.00 objective to attack 1608.00. A reaction down filled the gap back to Friday’s ~1591.00 close before recovering to fresh highs above 1610.00. Above 1609.00 would now target 1615.00, if not also 1666.00-1673.00. Closing under 1596.50 would signal a final downleg underway to new lows..

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The range widened as was expected, albeit for unexpected reasons, as 29.10 resistance defined Sunday night’s high. Its reaction down avoided the 28.65 sell signal.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s close had created potential above 142-10 to 143-20, which is where Sunday night’s open gapped up. Potential to 144-00 remain intact so long as pullbacks now hold 142-24 as support.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Sunday night’s gap down to retest the 91.90 pullback limit was recovered back into positive territory attacking 94.00. A lot of energy was expended, but only a brief dip back into the range could be tolerated — if even that — before resuming the rally.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up to probe a fresh high Monday was retraced back into Friday’s range, but never into negative territory. The “ineffectual optimism” cannot tolerate a weaker open if 4.00 remains in-play.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The week ended with a second consecutive day of retracements among my coverage, back to pivotal levels.Extending almost any further Monday in any of those markets, on a closing basis, would likely extend much further into the week. This excludes Natural Gas, which extended its rally to what could be its near-term peak.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s break under 83.05-83.10 touched its 82.25 target at Friday’s low. The open gapped down to the upper-end of its 82.52-82.40 sell signal, and closed while testing its lower-end. Either the signal triggered and its delayed extension down on Monday will be dramatic, or else the signal was absorbed to launch another rally leg — probably by gapping up.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday was a second consecutive higher close, confirming that momentum reversed up from Thursday’s Key Reversal recovery from a fresh low. The 1.3107 high filled the gap back to the prior Thursday’s outstanding gap, from which the market plunged on the NFP report. Nevertheless, the recovery gets a benefit of the doubt so long as 1.3005 holds as support.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
1596.50 was tested Friday morning, and 1601.00 remains in-play so long as 1587.00 holds as support. Under 1584.00 would signal momentum reversing down, probably to new lows attacking 1550.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Despite gapping up, Friday’s session ranged sideways as was expected. There is still no compelling signal, but the range should widen.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s close at new highs for the week testing 142-00 still has room up to 142-10, whose break on a closing basis would trigger a larger upleg targeting 143-20 or 144-00. Reversing down immediately, instead, back under 141-10 would reinstate the outstanding 140-08 objective.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Friday’s gap up to test 93.85 did not extend higher intraday, but the 93.45 close recovered back above prior highs after filling the gap back down to Thursday’s ~93.00 close, still requiring the rally to extend higher without delay if valid.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The week’s steep rally ended at Friday’s opening gap up to test 3.92. as the balance of the session consolidated back down to 3.85. Back under 3.75 would target 3.60 for only a corrective dip, or for new lows back under 3.50. Otherwise, extending higher Monday would next target 4.00 and 4.35.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Yet another fresh Euro low Thursday was unavoidable, but it wasn’t likely to extend. Its intraday recovery reflected even greater buying pressure. But it ended at resistance, needing to resume the rally early Friday or else risk an actual new downleg.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
A probe of fresh highs retraced back under 82.80-82.85 to the last relative low, now likely targeting 82.10. That offers the potential once again of triggering the 82.37-82.25 sell signal, and now with added momentum.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s brief probe of fresh lows did not prevent another, but it did make the reaction to another more likely to extend up. Thursday’s brief probe of fresh lows did extend back up to test 1.3005, and a second consecutive higher close Friday could turn momentum up sharply.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite gapping down to test 1575.00-1579.00, there was no extension down, and the reaction back above 1590.00 suggests that a test of 1601.00 is in-play. Gapping down immediately back under 1584.00-1587.00 may be the only way to resume the decline earlier.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s pullback low under 28.85 wasn’t likely to be the bottom, but an attempt to extend it was likely to fail. In fact, Thursday’s opening gap down to 28.55 reacted back up immediately, eventually testing 28.85 as resistance. This is still not a buy signal, but it does help to confirm that a bottom is forming.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s closing back above 141-10 but under prior highs required sellers to take immediate control. Thursday’s open did gap down considerably, but it did not extend. Its reversal back up into positive territory must once again be rejected immediately to avoid at least a corrective rally back to 142-10 and then higher.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday’s dip to the 91.90 pullback limit required the rally to resume immediately. Thursday’s gains were firm, but stopped short of probing fresh high. There continues to be no reason to delay the rally.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The rally extended to its highest levels at 3.80 resistance, clearly not interested in any corrective dip, let alone back down to 3.30-3.33.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Euro’s plunge Wednesday retested recent lows. Like the prior low it followed, Wednesday’s low also probed new lows. And like the prior low it followed, Wednesday also avoided a new low close. That’s not bullish without recovering all of Wednesday’s decline. And it doesn’t prevent probing another fresh low. But it does suggest that reversing up from the next fresh low would be able to gain traction and extend higher.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Avoiding the sell signals Tuesday allowed Wednesday’s opening surge to extend from 82.60 to fresh highs above 83.05. Back under 82.80-82.85 would be likely to retrace the week’s gains back down to last Thursday’s 82.10 close.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Retracing at least 61.8% of Friday’s plunge and retracing back to its 38.2% retracement Tuesday required the rally to resume without delay to avoid retesting the lows. The open immediately plunged under the 1.2955 prior low, and tried recovering it into the close. There was already no bullish reason to revisit the lows at this stage, so not immediately rallying Thursday would again be likely to extend down.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite probing more of the 1596.50-1601.00 bounce limit early Wednesday, its reaction down fully tested the 1584.00-1587.00 pullback limit. It held, but its break could still put new lows back into play.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s close around 29.20 was already suspicious before Wednesday’s gap down to immediately probe under 29.10. Extending down filled the gap back to Monday’s 28.85 close and held it. That’s not enough to form a bottom, but it does further suggest that a new downleg is unlikely.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Momentary strength Wednesday was reversed back under the 141-10 bounce limit to suggest the decline’s momentum remains intact, targeting 140-08.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday’s opening surge to 93.40 held Tuesday’s high instead of extending the rally, but that wasn’t required at that stage. Only that pullbacks hold any test of 91.90 support, which was essentially the session low. Now the rally should again resume without much further delay.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh highs are not a sell signal, but Wednesday’s fresh high allowed raising the sell signal to 3.61, in addition to 3.53, targeting 3.30-3.33.

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