Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil extended higher aggressively Tuesday by gapping up and spending the entire session in positive territory. The buy signal is not yet one week old, so it should still be able to produce at least one big upday if valid.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Gapping up Tuesday did not prevent a dip into negative territory that attacked the 82.25-82.37 sell signal. Just as quick, a recovery ranged the balance of the session unchanged.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s bounce extended Tuesday to finish retracing at least 61.8% of Friday’s plunge, testing 1.3070 before retracing to the plunge’s 38.2% retracement at the 1.3005 pullback limit. Resuming the recovery without delay from this level would be credible for extending sharply higher. Otherwise, any lower could delay another recovery attempt until week’s end.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The potential detour immediately probed the lower-end of 1596.50-1601.00 Tuesday up to 1597.00. Its retest held. Back under 1587.00 would signal the bounce had failed, and under 1584.00 would start to signal momentum reversing down.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap up above the 29.10 buy signal didn’t extend much past the 29.20 prior high before only ranging around it intraday. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm a rally underway, but the pattern is otherwise likelier to dip back into the range.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming slightly at Tuesday’s open quickly trended through the 141-10 bounce limit to 141-24, which would invalidate the decline’s momentum only if Wednesday were to close higher for a second consecutive session.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The confirmed buy signal above 91.45 had extended even higher into Monday’s close, and Tuesday fulfilled the setup’s requirement not to interrupt that recovery attempt by gapping up to test 93.50. Pullbacks should hold 91.90 to maintain the rally’s momentum.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s gap up quickly peaked for the balance of the session to range choppily around unchanged at about 3.65, leaving the sell signal untriggered.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s late recovery Monday wasn’t necessary for the bottom that was forming through Friday. So, trying to resume the rally when not required would be bearish if the rally were not extended almost immediately Tuesday.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s dip attacked prior highs under prior highs under 82.60 and has yet to extend under 82.37 and 82.25 to signal momentum reversing down.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s retest of prior lows and 1.2955 support reacted up Monday to 1.3040. The the 1.3105-1.3113 buy signal targeting 1.3185 and 1.3300 could still trigger so long as pullbacks now hold 1.3005.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh highs Sunday night did not persist into Monday’s session, failing to extend Friday’s recovery from its fresh low, and leaving an attraction to new lows.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap down never extended, holding above 28.65 support, and the session only ranged sideways in negative territory.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s reaction up from plunging on the NFP report barely extended any higher Monday, not even testing its 141-14 bounce limit, maintaining the decline’s momentum targeting 140-08.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s dip to 90.90 spent much of the session deep into negative territory. A full recovery was not necessary since Friday afternoon’s rally to 92.00 had already confirmed Thursday’s break 91.45. But a late surge probed from highs anyway up to 92.15.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s gap down was reversed into positive territory, fresh highs for the move, and still not triggering the 3.53 sell signal targeting 3.30-3.33.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s new low in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report was still too shallow and too brief to qualify as a bottom. A lot of buying pressure is being expended to prevent the inevitable. I wonder whether any buying pressure will be available to recover from it.

Dollar Basket
Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s reaction to the Employment Situation report surged above prior highs to 82.95. Back under 82.37 and 82.25 would again signal momentum reversing down. Otherwise, a second consecutive higher close Monday would extend the rally considerably.

Eurodollar
Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The problem with Thursday’s buy signal became evident immediately following Friday’s Employment Situation report. Having formed an Ascending Triangle but not yet triggering it, the pattern was vulnerable to spiking down. It did. Prior lows were tested down to 1.2955, but have held, so far, with the original parameters still valid for triggering a recovery.

Gold
Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite having probed above 1584.00 Thursday, the reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report plunged to a new low at 1560.40. That’s still not deep enough to satisfy the pattern, despite what the recovery’s attack on 1584.00 would like us to believe. Anyway, the session resolved back down to end the day testing 1575.00, so buyers gained no traction, and neither did sellers.

Silver
Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The outstanding requirement to probe prior lows was fulfilled at 28.33 in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report. Closing back above 28.65 was needed to confirm that sellers gained no traction, which did hold a pullback from 29.30. Closing above 29.10 is still needed to launch a new upleg.

30-year Treasury
Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Trending down aggressively for 3-4 consecutive sessions had stretched the rubber band a little too far to be assured of even a knee-jerk reaction up to the Friday’s Employment Situation report. There had become risk of extending the leg down sharply. In fact, the reaction plunged to within 6 ticks of the outstanding 140-08 target, which remains in-play on this leg so long as bounces now hold 141-14.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Overnight weakness was retraced, albeit not aggressively, to try producing a second consecutive recovery close. Afternoon strength extended to fresh highs well above Thursday’s test of 91.45 to confirm momentum had reversed back up.

Natural Gas
Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh highs Friday up to 3.63 avoided triggering the 3.53 sell signal targeting 3.30-3.33.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Three consecutive extremely pessimistic sessions in any case would be vulnerable to a steep reaction. This setup is appearing in the long-bond, right before Friday’s Employment Situation report. Look out below if the catalyst doesn’t serve to reverse price up.

Dollar Basket
Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s open almost immediately fulfilled the bearish setup of reversing Wednesday’s test of 82.37 resistance back under 82.25 to signal momentum reversing down, probably targeting at least 81.65.

Eurodollar
Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s opening surge up into the 1.3105-1.3113 buy signal targeting 1.3185 and 1.3300 was not extended higher intraday, but was maintained. A second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm.

Gold
Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s gap up to retest 1584.00 again did not extend higher but it was not rejected outright except to dip back down to 1575.00. Although the bounce limit is 1579.00-1581.50, a drop to fresh lows with potential down to the 1550.00 area should be underway immediately to avoid a bigger bounce to 1596.50-1601.00.

Silver
Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s early test of 29.10 buy signal reversed price down to fill the gap back down to Wednesday’s ~28.75 close. Back under 28.65 would trigger a detour to attack prior lows.

30-year Treasury
Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
A third consecutive session of pessimistic, impatient selling had potential for a contrarian bullish setup ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. Indeed, Thursday’s open did spike down on econ reports and the balance trended down. The low was a little deeper than optimal, and not yet in recovery, so there is still room down to 141-14/141-21 before signaling a new downleg underway. Back above 142-10 would be likely to extend up sharply to test 143-20.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The recovery needed to be obvious by no later than Thursday morning, if extendign the downleg was going to be avoided. That extra allowance was generous and due to current events. But the open did extend higher to test the 91.45 buy signal and recovered it.

Natural Gas
Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
A little firming from the recent reaction down off of new highs is only delaying the 3.30-3.33 target.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Could Gold’s fresh low Wednesday be the product of distribution into and out of the weekend? Could it be the reward for having absorbed Monday’s surge? Probably not, but sellers must prove that quickly to avoid an even higher interim surge.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s retest of 82.37 would now be bearish if reversed back under 82.25. It extended higher to attack Friday’s 82.60 high, so a reversal should be obvious soon if valid.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Price drifted lower during Wednesday’s “inside day,” again not threatening the 1.3105-1.3113 buy signal targeting 1.3185 and 1.3300.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s dip to fresh lows at 1566.40 was too shallow and too brief to fulfill what the pattern has been projecting. Nevertheless, it reacted up quickly to retest 1584.00 resistance that held Monday’s opening surge. And 1575.00 was being tested through the close yet again. If a more serious probe of fresh lows isn’t underway soon after Thursday’s open, then a much bigger detour up could be underway targeting at least 1595.50-1601.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s late-morning surge held a test of Tuesday’s 29.10 high, reacting down almost to 28.65. Closing above 29.10 would likely avoid fresh lows.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Not recovering above 143-22 kept the pattern vulnerable to lower lows gaining traction. Still, Wednesday’s gap down may have been premature. Extending down further Thursday ahead of Friday’s NFP could setup a bullish reaction to the report.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Could Crude Oil’s recent price dip is obviously the result of fewer buyers. Could that reduction have been insiders with early knowledge of Chavez being on death’s door (if not already dead)? Price firmed Tuesday up to 91.00, and Wednesday’s 89.55 low attacked Tuesday’s low to within 20 cents. That might have bought time for a recovery, but not rallying soon after Thursday’s open would make a much deeper drop likely.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s reaction down from Monday’s attack 3.60 extended lower Wednesday, targeting 3.30-3.33.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…