Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s failed opening surge Tuesday all but confirms that the pattern requires fresh lows before any rally would be credible.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s gap down held 82.05 as support intraday, which had been probed overnight. The opportunity to form an Island Reversal is no longer possible. But a test of 82.37 that reverses back down under 82.25 could trigger a steep downleg.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s narrowly ranging day did not trigger a signal. Back above 1.3105-1.3113 would signal momentum reversing up and potentially targeting 1.3185 and 1.3300.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s pre-open test of 1584.00 was reversed back down to 1571.00, testing 1575.00 into the close. The pattern through Monday’s close had already made new lows likely. The reversal through Tuesday’s close reinforces that likelihood.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s open above 29.00 was retraced almost entirely back to Monday’s 28.50 close, still testing 28.65 at the close. A fresh low remains likely, so long as 28.65 continues holding tests as resistance.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday’s open gapped down from testing 144-22 resistance to 143-20, which was last week’s sell signal. Its retest held again, but now 143-30 must be recovered to avoid any lower low from gaining traction.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Firming throughout Tuesday to test 90.75 resistance enables a recovery Wednesday to gain traction above 91.45, but it must be in-play at the open to be credible.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) A gap up to fresh highs Tuesday probed above last week’s 3.55 high to attack 3.60. Back under 3.55 and 3.52 would signal momentum reversing down, but there is otherwise potential for extending higher.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold action was finally subdued Monday, but that didn’t see buyers rotate into Crude Oil, only more selling pressure. One might be incapable of rallying without the other, unless Crude Oil can reject the past two sessions’ decline without further delay.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s narrow ranging may have only delayed gapping down from Friday’s range to form and Island Reversal.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s narrow inside day did not trigger a signal. Back above 1.3105-1.3113 would signal momentum reversing up and potentially targeting 1.3185 and 1.3300.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Monday’s narrow ranging essentially tested 1575.00 throughout the day, holding 1571.00 support. But in any case, sellers remain in control.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s narrow inside day hovered at 28.45 support, all but assuring a probe of fresh lows to come.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday finally dipped a little from Friday’s gap up to 144-22 resistance, but only slightly to avoid triggering any signal.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The initial break lower is becoming outsized to be only a false break. Back above 91.45 would signal momentum reversing down, but it must trigger before Tuesday’s close.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday firmed back toward Thursday’s test of 3.55, posited for a breakout that should be underway by Tuesday’s close if the recent rally isn’t instead peaking.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s persistent volatility is inhibiting Crude Oil from attracting speculative action. Regardless, Friday’s break lower was the expected first step to stretching the rubber band so it may snap back and launch a new upleg.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Friday’s gap up to new highs at 82.58 may have formed an Island, which would trigger a downleg by gapping open back down under 82.10. The rally could otherwise extend higher so long as 82.25 holds as support.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The pre-open retest the week’s prior test of 1.3020, this time down to 1.2967. The close was back to testing 1.3020 which undermines the decline’s momentum. Back above 1.3105-1.3113 would signal momentum reversing up and potentially targeting 1.3185 and 1.3300.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday night’s $15 plunge to new lows at 1564.00 stopped short of the 1562.50 objective before bouncing into positive territory Friday morning to test 1584.00 resistance. Its reaction down was still testing 1575.00 whose break would maintain the decline’s momentum

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The pre-open new lows under 28.00 were recovered back into positive territory up to almost 28.80 at Friday’s open, but no higher, as the balance of the session drifted back down to test 28.50 support. Back above 28.65 would again trigger a new rally leg or credible attempt. The trend otherwise remains down.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Fridat’s open gapped up to 144-22 resistance and held there. To the extent that the open’s gap was in reaction to falling stocks, then not reversing down in reaction to stocks recovering suggests again that the bond doesn’t yet intend to reverse down. That would be much likelier had the close also recovered 144-14 instead of still testing it. Back under 143-20 would be credible for extending down.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Presumably the first break from Crude Oil’s narrow range is down, as was most likely. Now, recovering 92.40 would signal it was a false break, reversing in the opposite direction up much more substantially.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Friday’s noise offered no new parameters.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s extended decline may have resumed the hunt for new lows prematurely. My premise for Crude Oil coming alive depends upon Gold action coming down, which seems unlikely Friday. Perhaps the next pop in Gold will be accompanied simultaneously by a false break lower in Crude Oil, before each reverses more substantially.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) An overnight dip to 81.55 was recovered back above Wednesday’s highs on Thursday, but without signaling the rally’s resumption.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday night’s test of 1.3140 buy signal was retraced back into the range Thursday. A fresh high would still target 1.3185 and 1.3300.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The reaction down from Tuesday’s Bernanke surge went on to retrace all the way back down to and through its 1584.00 origin by $10. A corrective bounce was expected before reversing all the way back down to the lows. Now a corrective bounce would be triggered above 1584.00 targeting 1596.50, but this leg may intend to test 1562.50, first.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s drop back down to last Friday’s 28.40 close does not signal momentum reversing down, but it does make the rally difficult to resume without first probing fresh lows under 28.30. Back above 29.00 first would target 29.85 and probably 30.20.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) (Rolling coverage to Jun front-month which trades at a 1-16 discount to Mar) Having only dipped down to 143-19/143-22 instead of gapping down, no sell signal was triggered. Thursday’s gap up to test 144-00 drifted back down into negative territory. There is potential to continue drifting a little lower, but no active sell signal.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The narrow ranging around 93.00 persisted through Thursday. The range’s first breakout is still expected to be false, and reversed more substantially in the opposite direction. The first break is likely to be down, but I would prefer fading the break instead of positioning for it.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Spiky action around the EIA report retested Wednesday’s 3.47 opening gap. Its resistance held, leaving outstanding an attraction back down to 3.30-3.33 before a credible rally can begin. Nevertheless, closing first back above Wednesday’s 3.55 high — now that its opening gap has filled — can get a benefit of the doubt for being able to extend higher, so long as 3.47 then holds as support.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight I noted yesterday that Gold’s $35 surge reaction to Bernanke’s first day of Humphrey-Hawkins testimony was probably an isolated incident. Wednesday’s reversal confirmed that, already meeting its objective. Now Gold should range choppily as it absorbs the volatility. So… I expect it to be obvious by Thursday’s close that Crude Oil is attracting Gold’s action.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s gapd down only tested lower prior highs at 81.55, whose break would target a temporary dip to 81.25 before retesting the 82.05 resistance.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s ranging persisted through Wednesday, and narrowed. Back above 1.3140-1.3185 would target 1.3300, but only as a corrective bounce before resuming the decline.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s drop confirmed that Tuesday’s reaction to Bernanke was an isolated incident. Having held 1618.00 resistance, the reaction probed under its 1595.50-1601.00 objective down to 1594.00. A bounce has room up to 1610.00, and a further dip has room down to 1584.00, without either one signaling trending underway.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s gap down extended to test 28.85, natural support where Monday’s open had gapped up. The 29.85 objective remains in-play, preferably to be tested by the weekend if valid.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Not gapping down Wednesday back into 145-03/145-06 to begin a new downleg, the pattern followed its likelier path of ranging sideways to retest 146-06 resistance. Its reaction down filled the gap back to Tuesday’s 145-16 close.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Still ranging narrowly around 93.00, but starting to behave impatiently. The first trending attempt beyond either end of the 92.00-94.00 is likely to be false, and rejected more substantially in the opposite direction.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) No pullback from Tuesday’s 3.42 close down to 3.36 intervened before Wednesday’s open gapped up to 3.47 and extended higher intraday to 3.55. The lack of a pullback might be why the entire rally was retraced back down to 3.42. Now there is big resistance at 3.47, and an attraction outstanding back down to 3.30-3.33.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…