Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold fulfilled my bounce targets overnight. Tuesday’s reaction up on Bernanke’s testimony may prove to be only noise. Don’t forget the Humphrey-Hawkins rule: Reactions on day-one are often reversed on day-two.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s attack on 82.05 was duplicated Tuesday, and still held. A pullback to test 81.40 is likely.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Overnight low touched the 1.3020 target and bounced. Filling the gap back to Monday’s close resolved down under the morning’s lows, but held above the overnight lows. While there may be room for an interim bounce to 1.3140, the drop is likely to extend to 1.2955 and then potentially much lower.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Monday’s post-close test of the 1596.50-1601.00 target’s lower-end was followed overnight by a test of its upper-end. Reacting down to 1584.00 support proved quite vulnerable to Bernanke’s testimony, triggering a surge to fresh highs testing 1620.00. Having tested 1618.00 intraday, not closing above it suggests that Tuesday’s buying was an isolated incident, and gained no traction for its efforts. But being a fresh high, no sell signal is indicated. The pattern can back-and-fill to test 1596.50-1601.00 before signaling that momentum is reversing down.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday morning’s initial reaction down was recovered back above Monday’s high to attack 29.50, still targeting 29.85.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s post-close test of the 145-03/145-06 target area extended higher overnight to test its next resistance at 146-06. That apparently discounted all of Tuesday morning’s influence, as it held its retest intraday. Gapping down back into or under 145-03/145-06 would suggest that Tuesday was an isolated incident, and that momentum was reversing down fast.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Trading remained subdued and ranging narrowly around 93.00. The utter lack of volatility, let alone lack of trending, while Gold and Bonds soar on Bernanke’s reaffirmations suggests that QE is having no economic impact.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday’s gap up extended higher overnight to test 3.45, retracing back down to 3.40. A pullback to 3.36 would be optimal before the rally were to resume.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long bond’s relative strength Friday had seemed a little strong for a stock market in recovery. Usually, bonds win those disagreements. With Monday’s surge fulfilling the corrective bounce targets, now the question is whether that’s only a corrective bounce.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Friday’s redundant failure to extend above 81.55 was corrected overnight down to 81.17. That allowed a new upleg to test 82.00. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday is unlikely, regardless of how much higher might be probed intraday.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) That Friday’s stable ranging at 1.3145 support was deceptive proved to be the understatement of the year. An overnight rally into Monday’s open at 1.3320 was reversed entirely to probe Friday’s low down to 1.3080, putting into play 1.3026.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s pullback to test 1575.00 recovered to fresh highs Sunday night at 1594.00. The 1596.50-1601.00 corrective bounce target remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 1584.00 as support, which was tested at Monday’s low.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Sunday night’s recovery above the 28.65 buy signal extended higher to 29.20, above the two prior sessions’ highs. The bounce is targeting 29.75 so long as 28.65 holds as support.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday morning’s weakness still seemed grudging, and in fact it was. The dip to 143-09 was reversed up through the 145-03/145-06 target to 145-19. Closing above 146-06 would signal a much bigger bounce targeting above 148-00. Otherwise, there is room down to 144-18 before signaling momentum is reversing down, confirmed under 144-00.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Despite probing higher overnight to test 94.00, price reversed back down to test 93.00 which has proved very magnetic over several sessions. Closing above Monday morning’s 94.46 high would signal that momentum had reversed up.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Apparently 3.33 resistance has been chipped away by its repeated testing into the weekend. Monday’s open gapped up sharply above it to test 3.42. A pullback to 3.36 would be normal before extending higher reliably..

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Euro’s slide seemed a distant memory much of Friday. But ranging sideways around the low close into the weekend can imply a false sense of stability. Stability at this stage of the pattern requires obvious strength. If not recovering immediately to compensate for the delay, at least another intraday dive is likely Monday.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Fresh highs intraday up to 81.70 still held 81.55 resistance, suggesting the rally had peaked, but not that momentum has yet reversed down.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Room for noise down to 1.3145 was tested Friday morning before bouncing back into positive territory. The drop did not extend, but neither was it rejected.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The 1575.00 pullback limit was thoroughly tested as support Friday. Resuming the corrective bounce might depend upon immediately recovering 1581.00 Monday.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s gap down, probed fresh lows at 28.35-28.40, and spent the entire session in negative territory, but ultimately held its test of Thursday’s prior low. The afternoon’s low even reacted up from testing the morning’s low. This is “ineffectual pessimism,” and would make any initial strength above 28.65 Monday likely to rally sharply intraday.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday night’s reaction down held 143-18 support. Friday’s inside day was suspiciously strong considering the stock market rally undermined any flight-to-safety. Ignoring other sell setups from lower levels throughout the week presaged the stock market weakness. The corrective bounce targeting 145-03/145-06 remains intact.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s narrow ranging around 93.00 limited any recovery potential, so Thursday’s lows were retested Friday down to 92.44. But the session could still be defined as ranging around 93.00. Any immediate recovery attempt would likely fail.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The prior sessions’ sideways ranging extended into the weekend.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Extending down to unsustainable new lows Wednesday night and trapping shorts may have worked to the advantage of Gold launching a sizable corrective bounce.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Fresh highs testing the next higher objective at 81.55 essentially ranged sideways at resistance after the open’s gap up. If the rally’s momentum hasn’t now peaked, then a much more significant rally is underway.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The next lower objective was met Wednesday night at 1.3165. There is potential for a bounce to 1.3330, so long as 1.3145 now holds as support.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Fresh lows at 1554.00 Wednesday night still recovered back above 1571.00 to signal a corrective bounce underway targeting 1596.50-1601.00.; Having already tested 1584.00 intraday, the rally remains intact so long as 1575.00 holds as support.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Despite not extending fresh lows Wednesday night under 28.30, Thursday’s session only ranged narrowly sideways. Back above 29.03 would target 29.83.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday’s inability to maintain its break under 143-04 was explained by Thursday’s gap up to 143-18 resistance that extended higher to 144-07. Unless rejected immediately Friday, the bounce should extend to 145-03-145-06.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Fresh lows probed under 93.40 down to 92.65, but did not extend, or recover. The balance of the session ranged narrowly with resistance at 93.40, and with potential for extending down to 91.30 so long as 94.00now holds as resistance.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) A volatile reaction to EAI tested 3.33 resistance momentarily, but ultimately ranged narrowly through the close.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s tumble to sharply lower lows Wednesday came right on cue after Tuesday’s signal that the decline was ready to resume. It is quickly approaching the next objective, and has room to bounce in the interim.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday night’s weakness stopped just short of its 80.15-80.25 support before rallying sharply to fresh highs testing 81.25. Back under 81.05 would signal momentum reversing down.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday night’s bounce right into the middle of 1.3425-1.3450 resistance held, and launched a drop back through prior lows to 1.3275, just under the reaction’s 1.3330 target. The drop’s momentum remains intact so long as bounces hold 1.3350.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Refueling enough through Tuesday’s close to suggest the decline was ready to resume proved to be an understatement. The close under 1610.00 had already extended to its 1589.00-1592.00 target pre-open. It continued dropping intraday and later, testing 1565.00. If 1563.00 is touched, then a close above 1571.00 would end this leg’s momentum.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Fresh lows testing 28.30 have created room for bouncing up to 29.00 before actually signaling that momentum was reversing up.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday’s gap down under 143-04 was recovered momentarily into positive territory, but the recovery ultimately failed. The move to 141-26 is underway, but still needs a second consecutive lower fresh low close Thursday to confirm.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s bounce to 97.15-97.30 resistance reacted down sharply Wednesday to fresh lows testing 94.20. Closing back above 95.70 would signal a rally underway to 101.15. Meanwhile, this drop can extend to 93.40.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Wednesday’s early attack on 3.33 wasn’t rejected, but it didn’t extend either, so no rally is signaled.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…