Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s attempts to firm during the holiday each held their bounce limits, suggesting that sellers have refueled to launch a new downleg to fresh lows.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Fresh highs over the holiday attacked 80.85 resistance, before Tuesday dipped back into negative territory, potentially rolling over to test 80.15-80.25 support.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Still not resuming the decline, and only firming Tuesday, all in-line with the lower-wider trading range. Testing resistance at 1.3425-1.3450 could react back down to the range’s 1.3330-1.3350 lower-end.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Bounces to 1618.00 and then to 1615.00 each retraced back under the 1610.00 bounce limit. The latest retracement Tuesday attacked 1600.00, whose break lower would target 1589.00-1592.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The potential to 29.30-29.35 was fulfilled Tuesday morning, and held as support, but reversing up requires first recovery 29.75.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Probing above 143-18 up to 143-26 Tuesday was reversed back down to 143-04 support, whose break would resume the downleg targeting 141-26.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday firmed back up to 96.60-96.70 resistance, whose recovery is the minimum requirement to even consider that another upleg may be forming.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s open fired and the session eventually surged to test 3.25. Big resistance at 3.30 must be recovered before even contemplating that 3.33-3.36 can be probed to trigger another upleg.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s plunge Friday fulfilled all outstanding objectives. And then it created more. Price potential was addressed in the Chartroom and is summarized below. More important is the lesson that Fridays are dangerous days to try “catching falling knives.” The bottom is getting closer, but it’s still not here.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Not extending higher Friday helps to confirm that the upper-end of a wider trading range is forming.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) A fresh low Thursday night was imperceptible intraday Friday, which only firmed, further suggesting that the lower-end of a wider trading range is forming.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s plunge of nearly $40 to probe under 1597.00 fulfills the expectations for fresh lows. Capitulation on a Friday does not form a durable bottom. So long as bounces now hold 1610.00, fresh lows are likely to test 1589.00-1592.00. Back above 1618.00 first would trigger another bounce prior to resuming the decline.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Probing under the 30.25 target to at least test the 30.00 area was fulfilled Friday down to 29.71. The drop’s momentum remains intact with potential down to 29.30-29.35 so long as 30.25 holds as resistance. But closing back above 30.50-30.65 would signal a new rally leg underway targeting 33.55 and higher.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Ranging around 143-04 Friday kept the downleg targeting 141-26 from resuming. Closing under 142-26 would confirm the downleg underway. Back above 143-18 would more likely bounce first to 145-03.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s open wasn’t immediately rallying. More like trending down, gapping and sliding through 96.60-96.75 support. By not exploiting the time that Thursday’s gap up had bought, the 99.00 objective won’t be reinstated until closing back above 96.75.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Friday’s narrow ranging did not invalidate Friday’s break, but neither does it seem to be offering a confirming second consecutive lower close. That wouldn’t be a bottom, nor would it preclude lower lows, but it does make a lower low attractive for long-entry.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s long-standing objective — to retest Jan 4’s low opening gap — was finally satisfied Thursday. That was the attraction below. As for the force from above, it has yet to lapse. But the expectation for this to begin developing a bottom is still valid.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Two days of testing 80.05 support resolved up Thursday to test fresh highs at 80.70. But there is no indication of actual trending — there was no trending intraday from open to close — so this may be the upper-end of the wide trading range I have been discussing here.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s gap down to prior lows, from two prior days holding 1.3465-1.3475 resistance, did not trend any further intraday. Despite its ostentatious beginning, this may be the lower-end to the wide trading range I have been discussing here.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) One or two blips-down early Thursday teased the long outstanding 1637.40 objective, but were never credible for recovering. Ultimately, fresh lows probed under 1633.00, likely also to probe under 1628.00 before having potential to bottom.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The long-outstanding 30.25 target was fulfilled Thursday. Despite reacting off of it, its retest is likely down to the 30.00 area.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday’s opening recovery to 143-04 resistance later extended to 143-18 resistance on the 30-year auction results. Closing any higher Friday would start to signal at least a corrective bounce to 145-03, if not a bigger rally leg underway. But back under 143-04 would reject Thursday’s bounce and launch what should then be an almost uninterrupted drop to 121-26.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Wednesday’s afternoon’s late dip to 96.60-96.75 support left no time or room to tolerate further dip or delay in rallying. Thursday’s open gapped up well above 97.00 to reject Wednesday’s dip. The balance of the session chipped away at 97.80 resistance. Now Friday’s open similarly should not delay extending higher.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Repeatedly failing to trigger a rally leg above 3.33 had already made new lows likely, although a rally leg still could have triggered. Thursday’s EIA report put an end to that, triggering a downleg to new lows testing 3.13 and likely headed to 3.00.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long bond’s plunge Wednesday confirms that last week’s bounce was only “obligatory.” The probe under last week’s lows is unlikely to form a bottom on its first day. But look out above if another fresh lows is suddenly rejected. If a bigger downleg isn’t underway, then the alternative should be a big, big bounce.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s test of 80.05 support held Wednesday, but only for price to firm, suggesting a trading range as described here yesterday is beginning.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Fresh highs Wednesday were retraced back under 1.3465-1.3475 resistance to continue suggesting the recent bounce had peaked, but no distribution pattern has formed to indicate a reversal.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Hovering around unchanged broke lower after the close to attack Tuesday’s 1639.50 low, presumably resuming the decline.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s break back under 30.80 is presumably resuming the decline targeting 30.25.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday’s weak session was nonetheless optimistic to barely avoid touching its 143-04 sell signal. Wednesday’s open compensated by gapping down and extending to new lows at 142-09, confirming the previously signaled 141-26 target is in-play, so long as 143-04 isn’t recovered.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Wednesday’s inability to extend higher is not immediately a concern to the bullish pattern, since Tuesday’s gap up did maintain its intraday extension. But the patience that was earned Tuesday is now unavailable, requiring Thursday to immediately resume the rally targeting 99.00.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Delaying lower lows again Wednesday does give credibility to a rally attempt Thursday, so long as it is maintained beyond the EIA report, and extends meaningfully above 3.36.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold bounced Tuesday from within $2 of its long-standing target. This impatience reflects optimism, which helps to confirm that the target will need to be probed considerably to form a bottom.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s high was not retested Tuesday, which suggests that the bounce’s momentum has peaked. In fact, the reaction down to 80.05 fell as far as possible without launching a new downleg. Any lower would likely gain traction, but a sideways range could meanwhile develop.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s probe above Monday’s high tested the bounce’s 1.3465-1.3475 bounce limit, but essentially ranged around Monday morning’s high.While the bounce has probably ended, there is not yet any signal that momentum is about to reverse back down.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Attacking the 1637.40 target to within $2 Tuesday launched a bounce back to the 1653.00-1654.00 bounce limit. The impatience reflects optimism that confirms the target’s test won’t be the low. It could still be the beginning of a bottom, but it must first be tested.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s low stopped short of the decline’s 30.25 target before bouncing back into Monday’s range. The drop should still extend, so long as 31.05 holds tests as resistance.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s delay in resuming the decline did not necessarily default to a bigger corrective bounce being underway. Tuesday’s gap down also delayed resuming the decline by narrowly avoiding a test of 143-04. Breaking any lower, or back above 144-00, should extend in that direction.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s gap up above 97.00 extended to test 97.80, which suggests a quick test of the 99.00 target is underway. Back under 96.60-96.75 would signal the rally effort had failed and that momentum was reversing down.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s initial firming to 3.30 reacted down to test 3.25 support. Nothing short of a fresh high — preferably above 3.33 — would still signal a new upleg underway. Any further delay past Wednesday’s open would all but require trending down to new lows.

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