Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight I thought Gold’s surge Thursday seemed odd. It wasn’t predicted, and it didn’t make the prospects any less unattractive. So it’s not surprising that Friday’s plunge retraced it all. Now, will Monday’s pattern fulfill the attack on prior lows?

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The decline’s next lower target at 79.65 was tested throughout Friday. The trend remains down so long as 79.85 is not recovered.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s surge off of Wednesday’s 1.3050 pullback limit test extended higher Friday to fulfill the 1.3315 target. A pullback has room down to 1.3260 before signaling momentum has reversed down.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s surge was still testing 1675.00 resistance so it did not gain traction. Friday’s plunge back down under 1657.00 to 1653.00 suggests that the false break is being unwound and reversed. Under 1652.00 would target a retest of 1637.40, after which closing back above 1640.50 could seal a bottom. Bounces meanwhile should hold 1666.00 as resistance.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s new breakout attempt was unlikely to be confirmed since neither was Tuesday’s breakout attempt. The sequence was fulfilled by Friday’s plunge. At least 30.25 held as support to prevent a new downleg from beginning.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday’s drop was retested Friday, but only to react up from 144-11 to 145-16. That was the same resistance whose test launched Thursday’s drop. Its reaction down must repeat without delay Monday to avoid fresh highs targeting 147-00.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s breakout attempt to 94.70 seemed odd after Wednesday’s inside day had destroyed the pattern’s timing. A durable rally would be unlikely without first dipping back down to 91.25. It now seems that Thursday’s breakout attempt was a false break, having dipped Friday back into the recent range’s 92.75b lower end.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Friday’s probe back above two sets of prior lows is attacking 3.37-3.44 resistance. Its test should hold if tested without first pulling back to 3.20 for refueling.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Euro’s rally Thursday isn’t the sort that reverses down soon. It’s probably not yet peaked, too. But this pattern cannot afford too much hesitation before extending higher.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Not gaining any traction on the two prior sessions’ rallies up to 80.75 made a reversal down to 80.20 likely. Thursday’s gap down to 80.45 extended much lower to test 79.75. This leg should test 79.65-79.70, for its next critical test.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Holding the 1.3050 pullback limit Wednesday made any initial strength Thursday likely to extend higher. Thursday’s gap up to 1.3125 extended sharply higher to test 1.3275. This leg has room up to 1.3315 before being vulnerable to launching a new downleg.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s test of 1652.00-1657.00 did not actually chip away at its support. Thursday’s open gapped up and extended higher to test 1675.00. Unless rejected back under 1666.00 without delay Friday, and then back under 1657.00 to reverse momentum down, this leg could extend up to 1720.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s gap up above 30.50 extended higher intraday. That doesn’t compensate for the delay when that price action was needed Wednesday to confirm Tuesday’s surge. This sequence makes Thursday’s surge less likely to extend higher, too. So, extending higher anyway would be bullish.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday’s reaction down from Wednesday’s test of the 145-16 bounce limit tested 144-16 intraday. Closing back under 144-20 would confirm the corrective bounce had ended, and that momentum was reversing down to target 142-26/143-06. Closing above 145-16 would be bullish.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Wednesday’s inside day did not need an extra dip down to 91.25 to refuel buyers, after all. At least, not for the purpose of probing a fresh high, as Thursday’s open did, up to 94.70. The pattern extended no higher intraday, and instead hovering narrowly at or above  prior highs. Any delay in extending higher could put into play a deeper pullback than to only test 91.25.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s rally helped to mitigate Wednesday’s fresh low, but it is probably too soon to consider buying.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s dip Wednesday keeps alive the potential for forming a more durable bottom.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s “ineffectual optimism” did not prevent Wednesday’s gap up, but the session did not extend any higher. This pattern can continue rising indefinitely, but delaying any higher high Thursday would suggest a drop to 80.20 is underway.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday’s morning’s testing of 1.3050 support held, and the balance of the session ranged in negative territory, still Tuesday’s lows into the close. It almost qualifies as “ineffectual pessimism,” enough for any initial strength Thursday to be credible for extending higher.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Only gapping up or some other such immediately aggressive action above 1666.00 would have been credible for avoiding a retest of 1634.70‘s opening gap. Wednesday’s dip back down to 1652.00 keeps the drop’s potential alive, especially so long as 1657.00holds as resistance. Testing 1634.70 intraday and recovering to close above 1640.50 would be optimal to form a bottom.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) A second consecutive higher close Wednesday above 30.50 would have confirmed a recovery underway, but the session only ranged sideways, leaving no active signal.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday’s narrow ranging did test the bounce’s 145-16 limit, but held it through the close. Almost any initial weakness Thursday (e.g. Jobless Claims reaction) would be capable of resuming the decline.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Still no resumption of the rally Wednesday, and not even a break higher like Tuesday (in fact, Tuesday’s high held as resistance. The extended narrow range has ruined the pattern’s timing, all but requiring at least a dip down to 91.25.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Although sellers have not been gaining any traction for their gaps down, they have persisted, including Wednesday’s gap down to new lows. There is no active signal at this time.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s double-digit bounce Tuesday seemed impressive. On its face. But it accomplished nothing that Sunday night’s rally had not done already. Getting ready to launch a recovery, or finished correcting last week’s drop?

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Having gapped up, Tuesday’s narrow ranging in positive territory formed “ineffectual optimism,” but left room down to 80.20 before fresh highs at 81.05 is discounted.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Fresh highs overnight testing 1.3145 reversed all of Monday’s gain from Friday’s close, and 61.8% of the gain from Monday morning’s low. The rally can resume to test 1.3180 so long as 1.3050 holds as support.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s gap up to 1652.00 extended higher intraday to attack Sunday night’s 1662.70 high. Closing above 1666.00 would make the decline more difficult to resume, which is meanwhile the likelier scenario.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Gapping up Tuesday above 30.25 held up throughout the day. A second consecutive close above 30.50 would put into play 31.65. There otherwise remains risk to at least retest 29.75-29.85 support.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday’s fresh highs should now have stretched the rubber band tightly enough for the decline to snap back into play back under 144-18. Bouncing any higher above 145-16 would suggest the decline was not going to continue soon.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Surging at Tuesday’s open kept the door open to rallying, as no further delay would have been tolerable. But now the same rule can be applied to Wednesday, which should not further delay rallying.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Gapping down Tuesday and extending only slightly lower did not gain traction. This is “ineffectual pessimism” and recovering 3.33 would unleash buying pressure.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas reversed down from Monday’s gap up. But the reversal never closed low enough to actually reject the opening strength. Recovering it to close higher Tuesday would signal a much bigger rally leg underway.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The reaction down from Friday’s test of the rally’s target extended lower Monday. There is room down to 80.20 before discounting a retest of last week’s highs up to 81.05.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The reaction up from Friday’s test of the decline’s target extended higher Monday, but not until after first dipping. That one bobble at this stage of the pattern makes the bounce likely to peak at either 1.3145 or 1.3180.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Overnight probing above 1657.00 was rejected before Monday’s open. The session ranged narrowly to absorb Friday’s shock-to-the system. Under 1640.50 would at least test Friday’s 1634.70 opening gap, and closing under 1640.50 would target 1615.50. Avoiding that for another day would allow a buy signal to be calculated.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) It is premature to consider Monday’s ranging around 30.00 as reversing momentum up, or to make a further recovery attempt any more credible. But closing above 30.25 would be compelling for extending higher. There is otherwise no active signal.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday’s recovery from fresh lows did not extend higher Monday, still suggesting that any weakness would resume the decline next targeting 142-26/143-06.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Little movement Monday at least avoided invalidating Friday’s recovery. But there is no reason to further delay the rally resuming Tuesday.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday’s second consecutive gap up was reversed back into negative territory (on a negative research outlook). Friday’s session was not bullish despite extending higher.  Monday’s session is potentially bullish for leaving outstanding the open’s gap at 3.33. Closing above 3.35 would qualify as a breakout, with a second consecutive higher close Tuesday confirming.

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