Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Wednesday should almost immediately reverse the direction from Tuesday’s pullbacks in Gold and Currencies if any reversal is coming anytime soon.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) More of Friday’s drop back up to 80.50 was retraced Tuesday. At least one more fresh low at 79.75 remains likely so long as 80.55 holds as resistance.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s drop back toward Friday’s 1.2915 lows should be the correction’s end to allow at least one more fresh high targeting 1.3050.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The rally made no higher highs before extending Monday’s pullback Tuesday to test 1741.50. Back above 1750.00 would target at least one more higher high at 1763.00, with potential for extending up to 1802.50 or higher.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s narrow sideways range held Monday’s 33.90 low as support. Back above 34.15 would target 34.50, and any higher would target at least 36.00.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The recovery above 150-14 did not extend higher Tuesday, which instead ranged narrowly back to 150-31 resistance.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Both ends of the 86.70-88.50 range were attacked intraday Tuesday, but neither was broken to trigger the next leg.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday’s gap down back to the last relative low’s buy signal did not extend down any lower, allowing the drop to still be considered only a corrective pullback. But a recovery above 3.82 is still needed to signal momentum reversing up.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s consecutive 61.8% retracements suggest the range is ready to resolve, in one direction or the other. I would hope that means down, because upside breakouts like the one indicated typically begin with some geopolitical event.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s narrow inside day consolidated Thursday and Friday’s decline from Tuesday and Wednesday’s test of 81.00-81.05 resistance. At least one lower low to 79.75 is likely before any recovery could be considered credible.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s narrow inside day consolidated last week’s surge up to 1.2995. Resuming the rally would have potential up to 1.3050.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s $20 surge to fresh highs above 1735.00 was consolidated Monday. The rally should also visit 1763.00, where the pattern will decide between reversing back down, or else extending to new highs at 1802.50 or higher.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) By consolidating Friday’s rally Monday around 34.00 instead of already rejecting it, the rally is likely also to test 34.50. Closing any higher would target 36.00 and higher.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Sunday night’s rally through the 150-14 bounce limit was never touched intraday. Almost, to within 2 ticks, when the 151-05 high was retraced into the close. Extending down immediately would be credible for resuming the decline.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s bounce back pu to 88.55 retraced 61.8% of the drop from last Monday’s 89.80 high. This Monday’s drop back to 87.25 retraced 61.8% of Friday’s bounce. This pattern should now be ready to resolve. Under 86.70 would signal a new downleg underway, but above 88.50 would target new highs.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Last Tuesday and Wednesday’s buy signal and confirmation have yet to produce a higher close than 3.90. That’s still likely, despite Monday’s open gapped back down to 3.75 where last Tuesday’s session began. But now a close back above 3.82 is needed to resume the rally.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Pre-holiday trading depressed interest in all but the Energy sector. While Crude Oil was influenced by Middle East news, Natural Gas extended its well-timed rally to fresh highs.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The 81.00-81.05 resistance that was tested throughout Tuesday was also tested throughout Wednesday, and held.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Failing to confirm Monday’s surge on Tuesday did not require a reaction down on Wednesday, which only ranged narrowly around their 1.2825 highs.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s bounce was no more impressive than was Tuesday’s dip. Neither signaled nor confirmed any other parameter. Still ranging between 1727.00-1714.50 prevents signaling any trending underway.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Not probing and rejecting a fresh high Tuesday, while also holding “lower prior highs” as support, did prevent selling pressure from gaining traction. And that allowed a probe of fresh highs up to 33.40, the highest levels in almost two months. Extending above 33.55 would suggest the rally is extending. Otherwise, a pullback has room down to 32.45 before signaling that momentum is reversing down.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday’s extension of Monday’s drop extended down further Wednesday, putting into play 149-26 so long as 150-14 holds as resistance.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Wednesday’s gap up to 87.70 was retraced entirely by the actual announcement of a cease fire. A bounce back toward the open only added a higher sell signal at 86.70, which would be confirmed under 85.75.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s resumption of the rally was confirmed by extending higher Wednesday to test 3.90. Targets include 4.05 and then 4.25.

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Today’s Highlight Monday’s Crude Oil rally could have extended slightly higher, but it was not expected to last, regardless. Tuesday’s reaction down showed the risk of holding a speculative long based on a story when it has already tested resistance.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday firmed back up to 81.00-81.05 resistance, which had acted as support to produce the prior high. Its recovery would be bullish, but the decline is otherwise free to resume.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Not immediately rejecting Monday’s surge on Tuesday does not necessarily validate it. A second consecutive higher close would have been bullish. Extending higher Wednesday would require gapping up.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) No second consecutive higher came Tuesday that would have confirmed momentum reversing up. Back under 1714.50 would still signal a new downleg underway.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The test of 33.00 resistance endured through Tuesday. At least no probe of a higher high was rejected, and the pullback held “lower prior highs” as support, so the rally is free to resume.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s consolidation under 151-18 resolved down under 151-04 to confirm momentum had reversed down. The drop extended to 150-12. Any lower close would target 149-26.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Cease fire rumors coming from Gaza Tuesday helped 89.60 resistance hold Monday’s test. The reaction down to 86.20 fell back under the 87.20 prior highs, which held as resistance. Extending under 85.75 might be enough to produce new lows targeting 81.85-82.50.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Having spent enough time through Monday absorbing Thursday’s wide ranging session, a breakout above 3.80 was all but required. It was probed intraday Tuesday up to 3.84, and a second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm a new rally leg underway.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The weekend brought a different perspective to many markets Monday, or at least extended the perspective from Friday afternoon. There are opportunities to extend, even if only temporarily such as with Crude Oil. But mostly, one end of a range was tested aggressively without breaking out, such as with Gold and and Bonds.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Friday’s consolidation above prior highs had suggested it would at least try extending higher Monday. But the open gapped down and slid through the 81.00-81.05 support whose defense last week launched the new high. A second consecutive lower close signal momentum reversing down. Otherwise, filling the gap back to Friday’s 81.33 close could resume the rally.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s drop had neutralized the prior two days’ ineffectual optimism above 1.2800, while also neutralizing the open gap back to last Tuesday’s 1.2700 close. Either the drop would extend mercilessly, or a durable bottom may have formed. Monday’s gap up above Friday’s range probed last week’s highs further above 1.2800. Too much, too soon? A second consecutive higher close would confirm momentum had reversed up, but there is otherwise another downleg about to begin.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Not closing under 1714.50 to signal a new downleg underway left the pattern vulnerable to an updraft. That came Monday by gapping up to test 1727.00 resistance. It extended higher, but a second consecutive higher close is needed to signal anything more substantial in-play.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s open gapped up to and through last week’s highs, which had attacked 33.00. The session extended higher, but needs a second consecutive higher close to confirm the rally has resumed. I’m suspicious otherwise.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday’s breakout attempt was rejected by Monday’s gap down to 151-18 support. An intraday dip to 151-04 was retraced to test 151-18 into the close. Now a close under 151-04 is needed to confirm momentum has reversed down, or else a retest of last week’s highs would be likely.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) A delayed reaction to Middle East hostilities? The week opened in rally mode. Ending last week back at 87.25 (basis Jan, 86.70 basis Dec) prior highs simplified extending higher to test 89.60 (basis Jan, 89.00 basis Dec) resistance. A higher high up to 90.65 is likely so long as pullbacks now hold 88.50.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s wild intraday swings were still being absorbed Monday, but trending is now free to resume by closing above 3.80.

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