Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The impending weekend forced the Euro back to reality as was expected, rejecting the mid-week bounce that never gained traction. But it’s drop back into the range was not trending, and it could rally again, especially as Gold and Bonds remain in a range.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s second consecutive recovery from probing intraday under support required Friday to reward those buyers by rallying to fresh highs. Friday’s surge up to 81.50 was consolidated above prior highs, suggesting that it will extend higher Monday.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s failed higher high that was retraced back into Wednesday’s range signaled the false bounce had ended, which all but required Friday to resume the decline. The drop under 12700 retested Tuesday’s opening gap and closed back above its 1.2750 high. That requires the decline to extend down immediately Monday or else form a durable bottom.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Still testing 1714.50 at Thursday’s close prevented clearly signaling that a downleg was underway. Friday also ranged narrowly around it. Extending down without delay would be credible.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Holding a dip to 32.25 Thursday did not prevent a lower low Friday, but 32.25 did hold again as support. There is still no active signal.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) A fresh high up to 152-21 was retraced back down  under the two prior highs at 152-10, which were were still being tested at the close. Rejecting the breakout attempt would still require breaking lower Monday.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Despite retracing all of Wednesday’s Gaza-related surge, Thursday’s drop retraced only the surge and stopped short of breaking lower to resume the decline. That kept the door open for another bounce Friday, which gapped up to retest the prior surge’s highs, which held as resistance. Any higher could extend up to 89.00, but there remains potential otherwise to resume the decline.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s wide ranging back down to 3.70 made trending unlikely, and unlikely to gain traction if attempted. Friday did rally back up to relevant resistance 3.80, and any higher close would trigger a new upleg.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The approaching weekend seems to be settling scores along the way, with Gold finally breaking lower Thursday and Crude Oil retracing Wednesday’s bounce. Will more of the recent moves be brought back in-line Friday, like the Euro’s bounce?

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Gapping up Thursday rewarded Wednesday’s buyers for defending 81.05 support. But that didn’t prevent a lower low intraday down to 81.00 support. Recovering both through the close now requires resuming the rally without delay to avoid a deeper drop.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s open surged to a fresh high above 1.2800, that was retraced back under Wednesday’s 1.2787 high. Back under 1.2750 would signal momentum reversing down, and the bounce is otherwise vulnerable to extending higher.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Ranging around 1727.00 finally reacted down aggressively Thursday to 1704.50. Its reaction up to 1717.00 traded out the day ranging around 1714.50, whose break would confirm at least 1700.00 is in-play.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s attack on 33.00 resistance reacted down sharply Thursday to test 32.25 support, which held. There is no active signal.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday’s bounce back to Tuesday’s close had neutralized the gap’s attraction. Not immediately dropping again Thursday allowed Wednesday’s bounce to extend higher. It did, and it didn’t. Fresh intraday highs peaked upon touching the 152-15 prior high, which itself fulfilled the rally’s next higher target. But the rally should extend higher Friday if not reversing down by mid-morning.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Wednesday’s bounce in reaction to the Gaza strike seemed only obligatory. Continued, if not escalated, violence did not prevent retracing it Thursday back down to the bounce’s 84.70 origin. A fresh low should extend down to 81.85-82.50.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday morning’s drop back under 3.70 did recover, all the way up to 3.83. The afternoon’s drop back down to 3.70 did not. That’s a lot of swinging intraday so the next trending attempt beyond Thursday’s range should fail.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas lifted sharply higher Wednesday to confirm a reversal signaled over the prior two session. The second most timely scenario continues to be Crude Oil, but for an entirely new and dangerous reason.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Although Tuesday’s reversal from fresh highs failed to extend into negative territory, the reversal did extend lower Wednesday. Initially. The close was essentially flat, allowing the rally to resume Thursday.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Although Tuesday’s recovery from fresh lows failed to extend into positive territory, the recovery did extend higher. Wednesday’s open gapped up above the three prior sessions to test 1.2785. Back under 1.2715 would resume the decline, targeting 1.2400.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Ranging persisted Wednesday around 1727.00, instead of extending higher as a new upleg. Closing under 1717.00 and 1714.50 would confirm momentum had reversed down targeting at least 1700.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Fresh recovery highs attacked the 33.00 target to within a dime. There is no requirement to extend any higher, but back under 32.25 would signal momentum reversing down.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday’s test of the 152-16 target to within 1 tick did react down sharply Wednesday, attacking the 151-08 reversal signal to within 2 tick. All was retraced back unto positive territory, and Tuesday’s 152-00 close was still being tested at the close. Now closing under 151-18 would signal momentum reversing down, while fresh highs would target 152-30 and potentially 153-14.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Israel’s reaction to ongoing shelling from Gaza couldn’t help but incite Crude Oil to firm. The bounce seemed restrained compared to the substantiality of Israel’s response, peaking under Friday’s 86.70 high. Despite the continued delay in resuming the decline, a fresh low would still trigger its 81.85-82.50 target.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s rally extended sharply higher Wednesday to test 3.80, confirming new highs above 4.00 are in-play.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight While Veteran’s Day’s inhibition prevented trending Monday, releasing that pent-up pressure Tuesday seemed to push prices too far, too quickly. Energies are giving the clearest signals of trying to trend, but even they seem confused, with Crude Oil trying to trend downward and Natural Gas trying to trend upward.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s Veteran’s Day did delay Friday’s gap down from extending further. Sort of. The pent-up buying pressure resolved down sharply Monday night to new highs at 81.32. But it was retraced entirely. Still, sellers gained no traction since positive territory was maintained.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday night’s drop to new lows at 1.2665 was eventually retraced back into positive territory Tuesday. But the open’s gap down to 1.2697 will want to be filled, possibly very soon since Tuesday did not recover positive territory.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The weak rally did not extend higher. And a probe under 1727.00 support down to almost 1717.00 still failed to maintain its momentary recovery back above 1727.00. Closing under 1714.50 would confirm momentum had reversed down targeting 1700.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s fresh high up to 32.85 was retraced back under the 32.50 prior highs, and back into negative territory. Now that a fresh high has been probed, any delay in extending higher would essentially signal the recovery attempt had failed.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) It did not take very long after the Veteran’s Day holiday for the rally to resume and test its 152-16 target to within 1 tick. Its reaction down was recovered back above last week’s 152-00 prior high to prevent sellers from gaining traction. Retesting Tuesday’s high without delay could extend up to 152-30 and 153-14. Back under 151-08 would signal momentum reversing down.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Monday’s delay in rejecting Friday’s bounce to 86.75 was fulfilled anyway by gapping down Tuesday to test 84.50. The open’s gap was filled, but the drop’s resumption and its 82.00 target get a benefit of the doubt so long as 86.00 is not recovered.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday’s bounce had avoided confirming Friday’s drop under the 3.53 prior lows. In fact, Monday’s bounce recovered to attack the 3.61 level where Thursday’s close had threatened to rally. Tuesday’s open did rally, gapping up sharply to 3.65 extending higher to 3.74. Closing any higher Wednesday would confirm 3.80 and new highs above 4.00 are in-play.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Lower volume sessions like Monday’s Veteran’s Day with the bond market closed. Trending underway or attempted into last week’s close in currencies and metals could still extend Tuesday.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Friday’s gap up never extended further intraday, making it vulnerable to rejection Monday. But Monday’s narrow ranging did not reject Friday’s gap up, leaving the recovery’s momentum intact.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s gap down never extended further intraday, making it vulnerable to rejection Monday. But Monday’s narrow ranging did not reject Friday’s gap down, leaving the declne’s momentum intact.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Buyers got some benefit of the doubt last week for extending the bounce above 1727.00. There was no follow-through Monday, and closing back under 1727.00 would at least target 1700.00, if not also resume the decline.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Potential for a recovery to test 33.00 remains alive despite Monday’s dip that tested 32.25 as support. Closing any lower would target 31.05, and possibly resume the decline.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s narrow inside range was not surprising for Veteran’s Day action. Parameters remain intact.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s bounce was not rejected Monday, which does undermine whether Friday’s bounce was simply trying to elicit a slingshot effect to resume the decline. Almost any delay in resolving down Tuesday would suggest a bigger bounce underway.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Friday’s break to fresh lows was not confirmed by a second consecutive lower low Monday. That is not a buy signal and doesn’t preclude there being lower lows anyway. But it opens the door to a buy setup if Tuesday were to close higher, too.

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