Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight That rumor about the administration releasing Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) had a big immediate effect on Crude Oil Monday, a lot of which was recovered before the close. So, if the pattern is at all bullish, then why did Tuesday’s session nearly retest Monday’s lows?

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s gap up firmed throughout the day, peaking pessimistically short of fully filling the gap back to Thursday’s close. Any early aggressive strength Wednesday would be credible for trending sharply higher intraday. Otherwise, almost any delay in rallying Wednesday would be vulnerable to attacking this week’s lows.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s gap down remained under pressure throughout the day, but never really extended or recovered, leaving no new signal.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Monday night’s continued probing under 1760.00 blipped-down momentarily to test the 1754.00 support. Despite its substantial reaction up probing 1770.00, the balance of the session only ranged sideways. Any immediate rally effort would be credible for resuming the rally next targeting 1214.00. Any delay in resuming the rally would suggest a bigger drop down to 1740.00 underway.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s surge to fresh highs above 35.00 reacted back down under prior highs, but the session remained in positive territory to prevent sellers from gaining traction, and to keep alive potential up to 35.40.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Despite gapping up Wednesday, the balance of the session only ranged sideways, which still suggests that a fresh low is needed before a meaningful upleg can begin.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The reaction up from Monday’s sudden plunge on SPR rumors extended overnight to test 97.25. But Tuesday’s session only softened to within 50 cents of Monday’s 95.65 low. Closing under 94.80 would likely trigger a more substantial downleg. Closing above 97.00 would more likely attack 100.00 again.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday’s extension of Friday’s drop only extended more deeply Tuesday. No buy signal would be credible on Wednesday.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight An entire weekend for Thursday’s FOMC news and Friday’s reaction to ruminate, but Monday’s session seemed still to be in shock. Crude Oil’s stood out, its plunge showing why last week’s break to fresh highs was suspicious.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The Dollar Index did not print new lows Monday, contrary to the Euro printing a momentary new high. Strength in the Euro as defined below would be that much more credible for extending.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday morning’s momentary fresh high above 1.3180 was retraced back down toward Friday afternoon’s 1.3100 low. If not rejected immediately Tuesday — or even overnight — then the gap back down to Thursday’s ~1.2980 close will likely be filled next.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Monday morning continued to avoid resuming the rally, while still consolidating just above the 1760.00-1770.00 target area’s upper-end. An afternoon drop tested the target’s lower-end. Closing above 1770.50 would signal the rally was resuming to its 1814.00 target. Closing under 1754.00 would trigger a much deeper correction down.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The rally could not afford any further hesitation. The bottom finally dropped out Wednesday afternoon by plunging from 34.50 to 34.85. Closing above 34.50 would now resume the rally targeting 35.40. But a second consecutive lower close Tuesday would trigger a deeper correction, targeting at least 32.95-33.20.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday narrowly ranging session was more than an inside day. The gap back to Friday’s close was filled, and the balance of the session firmed. So, the optimism was credible, and potentially bullish. But unless it were to extend higher without delay Tuesday, that bullishness will only help to absorb and reject a fresh low so that a durable rally leg can form.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Last week’s surge above the 97.00 buy signal to was not credible. It was retraced entirely Monday — and then some — by a 3-1/2 dollar plunge down through 95.00 on rumors of a release in the Strategic Petroleum Reserves. The ongoing Double Top pattern remains intact.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday’s session extended Friday’s drop, but a recovery above 3.01 is still the minimum requirement to trigger a new upleg targeting 3.25. Another day consolidating the pullback would allow a lower buy signal to be calculated.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Thursday’s FOMC news extended its effect Friday. Substantial resistance among the Euro, rates and Crude Oil were probed. Gold’s follow-through was almost a rounding error compared to its recent run, which is especially interesting if this is a function of its predictive value.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Gapped down Friday and probed fresh lows, but closed at or above the open’s gap down. May have formed an Island bottom, which would be known by gapping up Monday back above Thursday’s 79.50 prior low or 80.00 prior high. Any such rally would be temporary.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s gap up retraced most of the post-open gains. Gapping down Monday under 1.2970 would form an Island of Friday’s session, but its follow-through would be only temporary.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s test of the 1760.00-1770.00 target area was still testing its upper-end at the close. The target area’s upper-end was still being tested at Friday’s close, too, after an interim test of 1780.00. Pullbacks have room down to 1760.00 without invalidating potential for extending up to 1814.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s surge consolidated narrowly Friday, leaving intact a rally that cannot afford any further correction on the way to its 35.40 target.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The drop extended down more than 2-1/2 points Friday, probing well under last month’s 146-00 lows. Closing above 146-20 would trigger a rally targeting 148-26 and potentially 150-04/150-18. There is otherwise no active signal.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s gap up to 99.50 increased the margin of danger for still ranging around 97.00.Overnight highs had already tested 100.40. But closing while testing 99.00 still undermines the rally from any credible or attractive buy signal. And now closing back under 99.30 would signal momentum reversing down.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Recovering 3.05 would have resumed the rally. It still would. But Thursday’s close at its resistance produced a gap down Friday to range around Thursday’s 2.96 lows. It was still being tested at the close, and not rejected, but now closing above 3.01 would resume the rally, next targeting 3.25.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight FOMC policy statements always have at least some effect. Thursday’s price action compensated for those sessions that had the least effect. Gold reached its target, while other targets elsewhere held.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The immediate reaction to Thursday’s FOMC statement was to spike up sharply and fill two outstanding gaps above. But the session ended sharply lower, next targeting 79.05.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday’s narrow ranging after having gapped up undermined the rally’s credibility. But it extended anyway after a dip filled the gap back to Tuesday’s close. The 1.2955-1.3020 area being tested offers substantial resistance back down to 1.2750.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s reaction down from only a shallow new high was not bearish enough to derail the rally. Thursday’s FOMC news triggered a surge that did fulfill the 1760.00-1770.00 target area by testing it up to 1775.00. There is potential for extending up to 1814.00 so long as 1750.00 holds as supporrt.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s test of the 32.95 pullback limit kept the rally’s momentum alive. Thursday’s FOMC news triggered a surge that attacked 35.00 to within 15 cents. The 35.40 target remains intact.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday morning’s narrow ranging in slightly positive territory up to 148-14 did not prevent a very negative reaction to the FOMC news down to 146-05. Back above 146-30 would target 150-04 or 150-18.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Wednesday’s second consecutive session of ranging around 97.00 resistance only further undermined the recovery’s credibility. It didn’t prevent probing fresh highs up to 98.58 Thursday morning, but those highs disappeared back under 97.00 in reaction to the FOMC news. That dip was recovered almost entirely up to 98.35. It’s still difficult to give the rally much credibility for extending higher.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s dip to 2.96 was recovered up to 3.05, suggesting the 3.08 target will at least be testeed.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Germany’s ESM ruling helped the Euro… to avoid a down day. Not that the alternative was bullish, either. But the effect among Precious Metals suggests that their recent trending is about to end.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Although Wednesday’s open gapped down to extend the trend, the session only ranged narrowly sideways. The pattern tends to appear when trending is nearing its end.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Although Wednesday’s open gapped up to extend the trend, the session only ranged narrowly sideways. The pattern tends to appear when trending is nearing its end.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s fresh high did not reach 1760.00-1770.00 before reversing down to close negative. So, despite otherwise tracking the topping pattern, there remains potential for probing a fresh high.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The 32.95 pullback limit was held through Wednesday’s close, although first it was probed sharply down to 32.50. The rally’s potential to 35.40 remains intact so long as 32.95 holds any test as support.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Despite Tuesday’s sideways ranging, which undermined the drop’s momentum, Wednesday gapped down to fresh lows. The overall direction is certainly within the context of a much bigger, bearish pattern. But the origin of Wednesday’s drop and the gap left outstanding to Tuesday’s close makes the pattern only more vulnerable to a corrective bounce.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s testing of 97.00 was not breakout quality. So, despite trying to extend higher Wednesday, the session weakened to close lower.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The recovery extended for a third consecutive session to come within 1 cent of its 3.08 target. Closing above it Thursday would extend the pattern’s target to 3.20.

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