Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Precious Metals continued to consolidate their recent gains — neither rejecting them, nor extending them. That’s the first half of a bearish setup that would trigger by rejecting a new intraday high through Wednesday’s close. Not rejecting a new intraday high Wednesday would get every benefit of the doubt for extending higher.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s gap down to fresh lows extended lower intraday, preventing the potential bottoming pattern from ever signaling. Now a durable rally leg must recover 80.35 before being confirmed.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s gap up to fresh high extended higher intraday, preventing the potential topping pattern from ever signaling. Now pullbacks have down to 1.2750 without the rally losing traction, and down to 1.2700 without signaling a durable downleg underway.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday further consolidated Friday’s 1744.00 target. Since two days of attacking the 1727.00 pullback limit have not resumed the rally, the pullback may need to test 1716.70 first. That’s the bullish scenario. The bearish scenario would first test 1760.00-1770.00 and then close back under 1744.00 to seal a top.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday further consolidated last week’s rally. A pullback to 32.95 may be needed before extending higher to the 35.40 target.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The decline tried extending without hesitation Tuesday, but the session only ranged choppily around Monday’s close. Extending down immediately Wednesday would still be credible for resuming the decline, or else a bigger correction would all but assured (if not already underway).

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s probing above 97.00 behaved more as noise than as a breakout. But 99.15 is next in-play so long as 96.15 were to hold as support.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s open didn’t skip a beat in extending Monday’s recovery.sharply higher to touch 3.00. Holding 2.94 as support would keep alive this leg’s 3.08 target.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight For a second consecutive session, many futures and commodities were volatile while indexes ranged relatively narrowly.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s relatively narrow range did not produce a second consecutive lower close, so Friday’s breakout was not confirmed. Avoiding a lower close Tuesday would confirm instead that last week’s shallow basing could launch only a temporary new extreme.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s relatively narrow range did not produce a second consecutive higher close, so Friday’s breakout was not confirmed. Avoiding a higher close Tuesday would confirm instead that last week’s shallow basing could launch only a temporary new extreme.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Monday’s weakness to 1729.00 shallow compared to Friday’s rally having fulfilled its 1744.00 target. A slightly lower low at 1727.00 may be deep enough to resume the rally leg, or else 1716.50 will be tested next.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Initial weakness Monday was recovered to probe a fresh high above 34.00. The session essentially ranged sideways around Friday afternoon’s range without ever extending the rally. A corrective dip to 32.95 is likelier than extending next up to the rally’s 35.40 target.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s open extended Friday afternoon’s drop by gapping down. But the morning’s selling was contained within Friday morning’s spike. Resuming the decline prior to another corrective bounce all but requires resuming the decline Tuesday without any hesitation.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Monday’s narrowly ranging inside day did not reverse momentum upward, which undermines the credibility of Friday’s recovery attempt.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Although Friday’s 2.66 low was unlikely to recover immediately, it pretty much did. Monday’s open firmed up to 2.74 and then the afternoon surged up to 2.84. Holding 2.76 as support would keep 3.08 targeted.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold met and held a major target at Friday’s high, without any recent refueling to its recent rally. Meanwhile, Crude Oil’s wild intraday range is trying to prevent its Double Top pattern from completing.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The extended narrow ranging around prior lows had not been rejected, making the pattern likely to attempt trending down, which Friday did. Now, the extended narrow ranging that launched Friday’s break makes it likelier to fail. Closing back above 80.35 would signal momentum reversing back up.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The extended narrow ranging around prior highs had not been rejected, making the pattern likely to attempt trending up, which Friday did. Now, the extended narrow ranging that launched Friday’s break makes it likelier to fail. Touching resistance just above at 1.2820 and reversing back under 1.2740 would be likely to trade down sharply.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) An overnight retracement easily held the pullback limit to resolve up sharply on Friday’s Employment Situation report, fulfilling the 1744.00 target up to 1745.40. So long as pullbacks hold 1716.50 as support, the rally can extend further to 1770.50 and 1814.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Despite already having met its 33.00 target Thursday, the rally extended Friday up to 33.77, putting into play 35.40 so long as 32.95 now holds as support.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Potential for extending down to 148-02 reached only a 1-point loss down to 148-10 before reacting back up sharply on the Employment report. Filling the gap back to Wednesday’s 150-27 close produced another downleg back to Wednesday’s 149-05 low. Now closing under 148-27 would target 146-26.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s early bounce tested both 96.15 and 96.48, before reacting down sharply to 94.08. All of which was in-line with the bearish Double Top that was forming. But the balance of the session recovered to fresh highs at 96.74, still testing 96.15 and 96.48.Closing Monday above 97.00 would be credible for invalidating the Double Top, which otherwise remains intact.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The reaction down since fulfilling the 2.89 target has quickly retraced back to the rally’s origin. Friday’s drop was so substantial that trading was halted temporarily. Its 2.66 low is unlikely to recover immediately, and there is currently no attractive setup.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight I noted Wednesday that currencies seemed rigid against the volatile stock market session’s drop. They were no less rigid while stocks surged Thursday to new highs. The Euro may try probing fresh highs, but that would be vulnerable to reversing down sharply.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s initial selling pressure stopped short of touching last week’s prior lows, and the balance of the session extended the past several sessions’ narrow ranging at the lows, Probing a fresh low and closing positive would signal a bottom.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday morning’s high barely pierced last week’s high, but essentially only ranged sideways through the day. A probe of fresh highs would be vulnerable to reversing down sharply.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s shallow consolidation of the 1700.00 target resolved up by surging Thursday up to almost 1717.00. A second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm 1744.00 is in-play. Closing under 1693.00 would indicate the rally had ended.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The rally’s 33.00 target was met overnight, and retested soon after Thursday’s open. Closing above 33.20 would likely extend the rally to 35.40, but closing back under 32.00 would signal the rally’s momentum had ended.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Closing under 150-18 would have targeted 149-22. Dropping under the signal overnight produced a gap down Thursday that touched 149-22. Lower lows extended down to 149-05, with potential for extending down to 148-02 so long as bounces were to hold 149-22 as resistance.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Wednesday’s recovery back above 95.15 from fresh lows testing 94.35 had signaled that sellers lost momentum. Not yet signaling that momentum had reversed up did not prevent an overnight rally from extending sharply higher to 97.70 — it just made that difficult to maintain. In fact, its reaction down failed to hold 96.15 support, potentially forming a very bearish Double Top..

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s opening dip to the 2.76 pullback limit reacted up sharply to 2.86. But only temporarily, before reversing back down to 2.76. There is no active signal.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Volatile stock market action was ignored by mostly narrow ranging among Currencies and Metals.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Another day, another narrow range around prior lows. Still no greater likelihood of extending lower.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Like the Dollar, Wednesday’s action in the Euro only ranged narrowly around its prior highs. Still no greater likelihood of extending higher.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s test of the 1700.00 target was consolidated Wednesday. The shallow ranging suggests that optimism is extreme, and a fresh high would be vulnerable to whipsawing down.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Flat-to-higher firming Wednesday further consolidated recent gains, still targeting 33.00 so long as 31.80 and 31.30 were to hold any test as support.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Despite having held its test of 151-22 resistance Tuesday (150-26 basis Sep), Wednesday’s shallow reaction down underscores there not being an attractive risk:reward setup. However, now closing under 150-18 would trigger a corrective dip targeting 149-22.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s impatient selling pressure extended lower Wednesday morning, but recovered positive territory into the noon hour. At least Tuesday afternoon’s lows held as support to suggest that sellers had lost momentum. Closing above at least 96.15 would start to signal momentum having reversed back up.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The recent bounce could have extended through its 2.89 target that was met Tuesday had the narrow consolidation resolved up immediately. But Wednesday’s open gapped down under 2.82 support. The rally can resume to 3.08 so long as 2.76 now holds as support.

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