Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The three-day weekend didn’t interfere with Friday’s trending attempts. But Tuesday’s extensions were not maintained. Crude Oil may be the only pre-weekend trend capable of resuming, because its ultimate reaction down Tuesday was a little too aggressive.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s weakness barely attacked Friday’s low, which was a reaction to Bernanke’s comments. This performance relative compared to the Euro suggest that a turning point is still forming.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s high attacked Friday’s Bernanke highs, again probing prior highs intraday but failing again to close above them. This is distributive action, and filling gaps outstanding below at 1.2500-1.2515 may accelerate a reaction down into a bigger drop.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s high fulfilled the 1700.00 target, and held it. Pullbacks have room all the way down to 1673.50 without reversing momentum down or invalidating potential for extending up to 1744.00. That’s a lot of room, especially with the Euro’s current challenges to extending higher.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s break above 31.00 that put into play the 33.00 target extended higher Tuesday to 32.44. There is room for noise down to 31.80, and room for a pullback down to 31.30 without reversing momentum down.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Fresh highs overnight held a test of 150-26 to allow a pullback or reversal to begin. But a close back under “lower prior highs” like 149-18 is needed before offering any compelling risk:reward ratio.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) An overnight probe above 97.00 resistance was rejected to avoid confirming a new rally leg underway. A session that contains a fresh high cannot also signal the trend reversing down. So, probing under the 96.15 pullback limit down to 94.97 expended a lot of selling pressure without sellers gaining traction for their effort. Back above 96.50 should trigger a new and durable upleg. Closing under 94.80-94.85 would signal at least a deeper pullback underway.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The 2.89 bounce target was tested almost immediately Tuesday. The balance of the session ranged narrowly, which allow the the bounce to extend higher so long as 2.78-2.82 now holds as support.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s redundant pullback Thursday offered Friday’s most attractive setup. That didn’t prevent a fresh low in reaction to Bernanke’s comments. But its reaction screamed higher. The pattern makes even more volatility likely Monday, despite the U.S. holiday.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Despite gapped down sharply and probing fresh lows dwn to 80.96 Friday, The session closed while still testing the 81.20-81.25 prior lows. A lower low will be extra-vulnerable to recovering.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The pullback had not completed down to 1.2425 before Friday’s Bernanke bounce probed fresh highs up to 1.2640. The past week’s 1.2575-1.250 prior highs were still being probed at the close, preventing buyers from gaining traction. The next higher high will be extra-vulnerable to failure.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s extra test of 1656.50 support did not recover enough to actually reverse momentum up. Friday’s fresh low down to 1647.10 on Bernanke reacted up sharply to fresh highs at 1691.80. Now pullbacks must hold any test of 1673.00 to maintain the rally next targeting 1700.00 and 1744.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s gap up was retraced only deep enough to fill the gap back to Thursday’s close, before recovering back through 31.00. Pullbacks must now hold any test of 31.00 to keep 33.00 in play.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday’s dip only briefly tested the 149-08 pullback limit before recovering to fresh highs at 150-12. This extra push higher makes 150-26 likely to be tested before the next significant pullback can begin.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday needed to prove quickly that its recent weakness had ended. Gapping up more than $2 to test 96.50 qualified. And despite a deep retracement back under 95.00 on Bernanke, fresh highs came within a dime of 97.00. The new upleg is in-play so long as 96.15 now holds tests as support.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Like Thursday’s close while testing the 2.72-2.74 buy signal, Friday’s close was still testing the 2.78-2.82 buy signal. The minimum objective remains 2.90. But its recovery could extend up to 3.08.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Corrections extended for an extra day Thursday, without yet signaling trend reversals. Perhaps the most attractive situation is Gold, which retested its pullback limit that had also held Wednesday. Meanwhile, Crude Oil needs to prove quickly that its recent weakness has ended, or else it may extend into and out of the weekend.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s bounce had stopped pessimistically short of filling the gap back up to Monday’s 81.70 close. Thursday’s surge up to 81.78 compensated for the delay. Only resistance at 81.90 remains to prevent a bigger rally targeting 82.50.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday’s dip had stopped optimistically short of filling the gap back down to Monday’s 1.2500 close. Thursday’s drop down to 1.2488 compensated for the delay. Only support at 1.2425 remains to prevent a bigger drop targeting 1.2350.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s test of the 1656.50 pullback limit did not recover high enough to reverse momentum up. Thursday quickly dipped to retest the pullback limit, where the balance of the session ranged narrowly. Still need to close above 1672.50 to put into play 1700.00 and 1744.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s shallow dip failed to recover above 31.00 before Thursday’s deeper dip tested 30.00-30.35 support. The pattern still must recover 31.00 to trigger higher highs targeting 33.00.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Recent ranging around 149-00 broke higher Thursday up to 149-27. Now back under 149-08 would signal the bounce had ended, and under 148-24 would signal momentum reversing down.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s probe of fresh lows down to 93.95 closed while testing Monday’s 94.41 low. Now just recovering 95.15 would start to gain traction for also recovering 96.15 and 97.00.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The 2.72-2.74 resistance was still being tested at Thursday’s close. Now 2.78-2.82 resistance must be recovered to put into play 2.90, and potentially also 3.08.

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Today’s Highlight Gold’s narrow ranging finally broke. And it may have been a false break, preparing to reverse back to and through the highs.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s gap down gained no traction, so it didn’t extend down any further Wednesday. And the gap back up to Monday’s close remains outstanding to attract price up and kick-start a new rally leg. Avoiding that will all but require extending sharply higher without delay Thursday.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s gap up gained no traction, so it didn’t extend up any further Wednesday. And the gap back down to Monday’s close remains outstanding to attract price up and kick-start a new decline. Avoiding that will all but require extending sharply lower without delay Thursday.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The 1656.50 pullback limit was finally tested Wednesday by a dip down to 1654.40. Now closing back above 1672.50 would signal the rally had resumed, next targeting 1700.00 and 1744.00. Closing under 1652.50 would target a deeper dip to 1640.50-1645.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Despite not yet recovering 31.00 to resume the rally, Wednesday’s dip stopped well short of 30.35. Recovering 31.00 would still be bullish for targeting 33.00.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday’s dip to 148-17 confirmed that Tuesday’s probe above 149-00 resistance to 149-19 had not gained traction. The pattern still offers no attractive parameter otherwise.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s rally to 96.50 resistance reacted down Wednesday to 94.75 on tamer Hurricane Isaac forecasts and surprisingly high IEA data. But the real surprise was how relatively shallow the pullback was compared to the otherwise bearish news. Back above 96.15-97.00 would trigger a new rally leg.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The potential for a third new relative lows close remains alive so long as bounces were to hold 2.72-2.74 as resistance. Closing any higher would target 2.90.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil got a bump from EAI dismissing the efficacy of releasing SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserves). But only so much of a bump because the decision has yet to be made. And also because a buy signal lies just above.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s narrow ranging had not enhanced Friday’s recovery attempt. Tuesday’s drop helped, by leaving outstanding a gap back to Monday’s 81.70 close that can attract price higher for another recovery attempt.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Sellers gained no traction on Monday’s shallow dip, leaving room for noise up to 1.2570 which contained Tuesday’s high. There is also room down to 1.2425 before signaling a bigger downleg underway.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Ranging since testing 1674.00-1677.00 persisted Tuesday. Price was a little weaker, but still has room down to 1656.50 before either completing a pullback to resume the rally up to 1700.00 and 1744.00, or else gaining traction to become a new downleg.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s fresh high may become any Island reversal, since Tuesday’s open gapped down back under prior highs. Closing under 30.00-30.35 would signal a bigger correction underway. Otherwise, two consecutive higher closes above 31.00 would resume the rally, next targeting the 33.00 area.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Ongoing testing of 149-00 resistance extended higher Tuesday to 149-19. Opening under 148-30 would indicate the bounce had failed. Closing under 148-18 would signal momentum reversing down, potential to probe fresh lows.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Monday’s fresh low was not confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Tuesday. Its recovery stopped just short of gaining traction above 97.00. Almost any higher Wednesday would be likely to trend sharply higher intraday.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Last week’s failed attempts to renew the decline was retried Monday, and then confirmed Tuesday. Now a third lower close is now all but required before a durable recovery can begin. That said, closing above 2.70 and 2.77 would signal momentum reversing up.

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