Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s reaction down Monday from attacking last week’s highs helps to confirm the rally is vulnerable to being blindsided by a deeper drop.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s narrow ranging offered no new information since Friday’s gap up tried signaling the recent pullback had ended.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday morning’s bounce did not extend any higher Monday. Not that sellers gained any traction as the session only ranged narrowly. There is room for noise between 1.2425-1.2570.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Ranging around Thursday’s resistance persisted through Monday. There remains risk of a deeper pullback to 1656.50 before extending the rally to 1700.00 and 1744.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Holding above the rally’s 30.00-30.35 target for two sessions allowed it to extend higher Monday up to 31.22. Fresh highs could test 31.30. But now any close back under 30.35 would signal momentum reversing down.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday’s test of 149-00 resistance was retraced back up to 149’02. The pattern still has no new levels or objectives.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Hurricane Isaac fears encouraged Sunday night’s open to gap up and attack last week’s highs up to 97.72. Reality forced a reversal down to 94.41. Back above 97.00 could resume the rally, next targeting 98.85. Closing under 93.00 would confirm the rally had ended, targeting 90.75 and potentially 88.75.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Absorbing each of last week’s brief dips matters not without unleashing that buying pressure back above 2.80-2.85. Monday’s open did not repeat any of last week’s recovery attempts, and the session drifted to fresh lows.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The weekend wasn’t greeted with any bravado. Attempts to extend the week’s trending were unsuccessful, such as in Bonds and in Energies. Attempts to reverse other intra-week trends did not succeed, such as with currencies.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Friday’s gap up to 81.75 peaked short of 81.90 whose recovery would signal the pullback had ended, and another upleg was underway.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s gap down confirmed the relevance of 1.2570, which was the corrective rally’s target met Thursday. A bounce filled the gap back to Thursday’s close, which held as resistance. The 1.2425 pullback limit was not touched.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s currency volatility had little influence after Thursday’s rally had already met significant resistance at 1677.50. The reaction down to 1665.00 still has room to test 1656.50 before suggesting it may damage potential for resuming the rally to 1700.00 and 1744.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s session only ranged narrowly supported just above the rally’s 30.00-30.35 target. A break under 29.80-29.85 would be the first sign of momentum reversing down.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The bounce had become likely to extend further for a test of 149-00 resistance, which was tested Friday up to 149-04. Resistance held, suggesting the bounce has ended.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s rejection of its fresh highs at 98.30 did not extend down to fresh lows Friday, avoiding a second consecutive lower close that would have signaled momentum reversing down. The rally could still resume, or at least the potential to 98.85 could be fulfilled.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Yet another reaction down Friday from trying to recover 2.80-2.85, falling back to 2.71 after testing 2.88 overnight. An intraday probe above 2.85 remains likely to extend sharply higher intraday.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil came close to its target, and then reacted down. Its rally may have ended, or may be ending. And that’s interesting, because Natural Gas is trying to bottom.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The drop’s 81.40 target was tested down to 81.22, and was still being tested at the close. A fresh low could test 81.15 as noise around 81.40. Closing back above 81.90 would signal a new upleg underway.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The bounce’s 1.2570 target was tested up to 1.2593, but held as resistance through the close. The rally may yet extend higher, so long as 1.2425 were to hold as support. Closing under 1.2415 would signal a new downleg underway.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s reaction down to 1536.00 from testing 1645.00 resistance had resolved up to resume the rally. Thursday’s gap up and surge to 1677.50 may encourage another correction, this time as a retracement back to 1656.50. The next higher objectives are 1700.00 and 1744.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The 30.35 target was tested up to 30.79, which was still being probed at the close, leaving room for a corrective dip down to 29.80-29.85.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday had tested the 147-00 and 147-25 bounce limits, then Thursday exceeded them up up to 148-19 to make 149-00‘s test likely, too. A dip has room down to 146-26 before signaling new downleg underway.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Fresh highs up to 98.30 overnight were retraced before Thursday’s open, and then reacted down to 95.75 intraday. This is bearish. The 98.85 target was nearly met, and the other attraction above back to Tuesday’s opening gap was filled after Wednesday’s dip back into the prior range. Also, RSIs diverged negatively on the retest of Tuesday’s high. A second consecutive lower close would confirm momentum reversing down.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Wednesday’s test of 2.85 resistance never exploited Tuesday’s recovery from its intraday dip. So, Thursday tried again. Its drop to fresh lows under 2.70 also recovered entirely intraday to end the day testing 2.80. Back above 2.85 would be likely to trend up sharply intraday and Monday.

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Today’s Highlight Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes didn’t change much. Trending underway extended, such as Gold and the Euro, while other markets held steady.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Probing under Tuesday’s lows Wednesday makes any rally attempt suspicious before now probing under 81.40. Wednesday’s low attacked 81.60.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday afternoon’s break higher to 1.2543 confirmed that 1.2570 is in-play, so long as 1.2455 now holds as support.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s warning of near-term resistance at 1643.60 didn’t prevent probing 1650.00 Wednesday. It was retraced entirely, back into negative territory, before FOMC Minutes triggered a surge to fresh highs at 1654.80. The rally next targeting 1672.00 remains intact so long as 1644.50-1646.00 were to hold as support.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The rally extended Wednesday to 29.79, nearing its 30.00-30.35 target, which now remains in-play so long as 29.25 holds pullbacks.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday’s recovery from breaking lower extended higher Wednesday by gapping gap up to test 147-00 and eventually touch 147-25 resistance. Any higher could no longer qualify as only a corrective bounce. Back under 146-24 would reverse momentum down.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Following Tuesday’s gap up, Wednesday’s open still had enough room to gap down to 96.40 without even touching “lower prior highs,” let alone probing any relevant support. An afternoon retest reacted up toward 97.54 session highs to maintain the rally’s momentum.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Wednesday’s session probed back into the 2.80-2.85 resistance area, but no higher, which would have been likely to extend sharply higher intraday.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s recovery fulfilled a significant objective Tuesday by closing above prior highs. That’s not equivalent to fulfilling a target. The objective helps to confirm that a durable rally is underway, and not a corrective bounce.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s failed attack on the 82.80 buy signal was further punished Tuesday by sliding sharply to 81.80. Any lower would all but require probing under 81.40 before the next credible recovery attempt.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s recovery from dipping under its critical 1.2300 support was rewarded overnight by recovering 1.2380 to suggest a bigger corrective bounce underway. In fact, 1.2492 was tested Tuesday morning, and 1.2570 could be tested so long as 1.2405 were to hold as support.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Recovering Monday’s early test of its 1613.00 pullback limit to close at fresh highs was extended sharply higher Tuesday to 1643.60. The first probe above prior highs coincided with testing a two-month old Pivotal High that must extend higher Wednesday to avoid several days of correction.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s close above 28.00-28.15 extended sharply higher Tuesday to 29.50. The 30.00-30.35 target remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 28.95.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The 146-25 bounce limit wasn’t even attacked by firming after Monday’s close. Tuesday open gapped down, expending a lot of selling pressure, without the bounce limit yet refueling sellers. An early retest of last week’s 145-04 low produced a bounce that closed back in positive territory, just 1-2 ticks short of signaling a bigger bounce targeting 147-00.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Despite gapping up to new highs Tuesday that attacked 96.00, the balance of the session slid. Despite the balance of the session sliding, Tuesday’s close was still positive. The intraday dip refueled buyers to maintain the 98.85 target.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s early probe into 2.80-2.85 resistance was rejected by a relatively steep drop back down to . It was also a brief drop, and was recovered back up into the 2.80-2.85 area. The close was under 2.80-2.85, but now any probe above 2.85 would be credible for extending sharply higher intraday.

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