Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Precious metals including Gold and Silver probed fresh relative highs Monday. Silver probed levels not seen in weeks, with a bullish aggression not seen since the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the market. That may be an exaggeration, but not relative to the range’s tight ongoing hold.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The week began by attacking 82.80, whose recovery would signal a new upleg underway. The session ended without recovering from a dip back into negative territory.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s opening dip under 1.2300 reacted back up into positive territory. Back above 1.2380 would suggest a bigger corrective bounce underway before ultimately retesting prior lows.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) An early retest of the 1613.00 pullback limit Monday morning launched a probe of fresh highs attacking 1625.00. Now pullbacks must hold 1619.00 to maintain the rally’s momentum.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s surge through 28.00-28.15 extended to fresh highs, signaling that 30.00-30.35 is in-play.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s narrow ranging around 146-00 nearly qualified as in inside day. It was the second consecutive session to trade exclusively within Thursday’s range. The 146-25 bounce limit could be extended up to 147-00, and still be likely to resolve down.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Narrow sideways ranging Monday only slightly pierced under the 95.15 pullback limit, maintaining the likelihood of resolving up.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday’s sideways range avoided probing lower lows, leaving open the potential that closing above 2.80-2.85 would trigger an upleg.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Brent Crude’s minimum target for the recovery was met Friday. That was in spite of bearish talk of releasing some of the Strategic Petroleum Reserves. Doesn’t seem as if Crude’s rally considers that to be a serious impediment. Might not consider the rally’s minimum target to be serious, either.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s drop back to 82.35 was recovered Friday back up to 82.80. Two consecutive closes above it would signal and confirm a new upleg underway, if only to briefly probe fresh highs.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s recovery back to the week’s 1.2380 highs was retraced Friday to again test 1.2300 as support. Two consecutive closes below it would signal and confirm a new downleg underway, if only to briefly probe fresh lows.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) In almost a reverse of the week’s low, Friday probed Thursday’s high and then reversed to close off of it. But Friday’s close was still positive, and it held the 1613.00 pullback limit to keep alive the rally’s momentum. Closing above 1620.00 would next target 1636.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s dip corrected Thursday’s surge back down to the 28.00 area. Closing above 28.15-28.25 would signal the next rally leg underway targeting 30.00-30.35.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday’s open gapped up into what became an Inside Day. It does not reflect strong-handed sponsorship, but could extend higher to test 146-25 before resuming the decline back to and through Thursday’s low.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Rumors that the SPR might be released to depress prices was all but ignored, as Friday firmed to fulfill the rally’s initial 96.15 target. Perhaps the market discounted it by only firming or ranging narrowly at recent highs. In other words, the rally didn’t take the bad news seriously. Its momentum remains intact, next targeting 98.85-98.95 so long as 95.15 now holds as support.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Friday’s narrowly-ranging Inside Day at the trend’s current lows suggests that Thursday’s third low close for the trend did fulfill selling pressure. Nevertheless, only closing above 2.80-2.85 would signal momentum reversing back up.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold extended higher Thursday from Wednesday’s bottoming pattern. And this leg was accompanied by Silver breaking above its own relevant resistance.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Initial strength Thursday should have been credible for extending higher. The open’s jump held 82.80 resistance before reversing back down toward the week’s lows at 82.35.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) A second consecutive close Thursday under 1.2300 would have confirmed a test of prior lows in-play. Thursday’s gap up prevented that. The week’s 1.2378 high was tested.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s reversal pattern extended higher Thursday to consolidate under 1620.00. A momentary probe above it was never retested, nor did it trigger a reversal down, instead forming a Flag continuation pattern that is likely to resolve up so long as 1613.00 were to hold as support.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s surge from 27.75 attacked last week’s highs up to 28.25. There is no bearish reason to have revisited the prior highs, so 30.00-30.35 should now be in-play.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The week’s drop extended down further Thursday to 145-04, next targeting 144-10 so long as 146-00 holds as resistance. Any bigger bounce should be only a temporary correction.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) More fresh highs were probed Thursday up to 95.75, targeting 98.95 so long as 94.70-95.20 now holds as support.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) A fresh low had printed Thursday when a bullish EIA report triggered a spike up back into positive territory. That did not prevent a new low close, fulfilling the minimum requirement of Monday and Tuesday’s pattern. Closing back above 2.80 would signal the downleg had ended.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s recent probes of fresh lows were seemingly rejected Wednesday by closing back in positive territory. Closing above Tuesday’s high would have been much more reliable, but any initial strength Thursday would be credible for extending higher.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s gap up held a test of 82.80 as resistance, to avoid signaling a much bigger rally leg underway to fresh highs. A second consecutive higher close Thursday would signal a rally underway, anyway.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday’s gap down confirmed that Monday’s gap up from 1.2300 did not reverse the trend back up. A second consecutive lower close Thursday would confirm the trend had reversed down, probably to retest recent lows.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) An overnight dive probed under Tuesday’s 1593.60 low and then recovered to probe above Tuesday afternoon’s 1606.30 high The positive close fulfills the bottoming pattern I described one day earlier. Closing above Tuesday’s high — instead of still testing it Wednesday afternoon — would have been more reliable to extend higher At least a negative close was avoided, which would have been bearish

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) If there is anything bullish about the pattern, it is that 27.75‘s test as resistance has not been rejected. But there is no active buy signal that can put into play the 30.00-30.35 target.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday’s “ineffectual optimism” made its eventual probe likely to visit 146-16. It was touched at Wednesday’s overnight low, and then exceeded intraday down to 146-01, where there is a sleeper low from late-May. Closing above 146-20 would signal bounce potential to 147-22. Closing under 145-16 would renew the decline with much lower targets.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Remarkably low recent volatility was finally shaken loose Wednesday. Continued volatility in currencies, Gold and stock indexes, and louder rumors of attacking Iran, all conspired to probe above the 94.72 prior high. It held as resistance, and there is now room down to 93.95 without the rally attempt losing traction.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s bounce delayed the requirement for an eventual third lower close under 2.72. The bounce could have extended higher before failing, but was retraced already Wednesday.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold got ahead of itself after the pattern of Monday’s drop indicated a bigger drop coming Wednesday. Tuesday’s drop was already sizable. Either the pattern is even more bearish, or about to bottom.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Further firming Tuesday still failed to gain traction for extending higher. The same parameter — immediate firming would be credible for extending up — will also apply to Wednesday.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Most of Tuesday’s action came overnight. Intraday action was remarkably sanguine despite Gold’s early plunge. Regardless, the action does not suggest that 1.2300 held its test Thursday and Friday, making fresh lows likely.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Monday’s dip back under the ~1620.00 prior highs rewarded skepticism toward Friday’s rally. Tuesday morning’s drop fulfilled lower targets at 1595.00-1597.50 down to 1593.50. So long as 1607.50-1610.50 holds as resistance, another downleg would target 1580.00. I would start getting bullish quickly if any probe under Tuesday’s 1593.50 low Wednesday were rejected to close positive.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s narrow ranging did not alter the pattern, which has no active signal.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s “inside day” within Friday range made Thursday’s 147-10 no less likely to be retested. Tuesday’s gap down extended quickly to fulfill that retest. Not actually probing under 147-10 reflected “ineffectual optimism” that suggests the actual low will test 146-26 or 146-16..

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Despite having held 92.65 support again Monday, Tuesday only firmed back up toward 94.00 instead of yet launching a new rally leg. Any higher should start trending up aggressively.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s rally back up to Friday’s 2.85 high avoided printing a third new low close of the drop under 2.72. It is still required, but may be preceded by first extending the bounce up to 2.95.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…