Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The week began with a couple of choppy starts — in Crude Oil and Gold, especially — that suggest the week does not intend to range narrowly.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Almost any strength Monday would have been likely to trend up, but the open gapped down. The balance of the session ranged flat-to-higher, so sellers gained no traction for their efforts. Immediate firming Tuesday would be credible for extending up.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s gap up suggests that Thursday and Friday’s ranging around 1.2300 did prevent a bigger downleg from gaining traction. But, that might have been only temporary, since the session only ranged sideways around the gap up. A dip back down to 1.2300 would be likely to extend down.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Monday’s dip back under the ~1620.00 prior highs had already inhibited a second consecutive higher close, not confirming that Friday’s rally had gained traction. The afternoon’s probe under 1610.00 confirmed the non-confirmation, as it were. Closing Tuesday under 1607.50-1610.50 would confirm a migger drop underway targeting 1595.00-1597.50.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s high was 28.15, instead of breaking above it, which would have triggered a rally. No other signal is active.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s “inside day” was like Friday’s gap up that never extended higher intraday. Each expended a lot of buying pressure only to range narrowly sideways intraday. A retest of Thursday morning’s 147-10 low remains likely.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Monday’s choppiness ranged 92.00-94.00. Barely holding 92.65 through the close barely kept alive potential for resuming the rally.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Friday’s drop extended to slightly lower lows Monday, a second consecutive lower low confirming Friday’s break. At least a third lower close is likely before any recovery can begin. So, bouncing immediately would be likely to fail.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s attempt to launch a rally Friday would be credible if next week were to open with the same intent. But if a new upleg isn’t underway at Monday’s open, then a new downleg should be underway by Tuesday’s close.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) A second consecutive session testing 82.80 resistance Friday morning reacted down sharply. The upper-end of Wednesday’s recovery session held its test as support down to 82.50. Almost any immediate firming Monday should extend higher to attack or to recover above Friday’s 92.95 high.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The challenge of holding 1.2300 support became greater at Friday’s open by gapping down to 1.2270 and extending down to 1.2245. The test seemed to hold by bounce steeply back up to 1.2322. But 1.2300 was still being tested at the close — in fact, throughout the afternoon. Immediately firming Monday could extend higher, but almost any weakness should resume the decline.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Another gap down Friday like Wednesday also recovered. This time the ~1620.00 prior highs were probed. Although the peak above 1627.50 reacted down, the ~1620.00 prior highs held as support through the close. A second consecutive higher close Monday would be credible for extending higher, and for avoiding a significant drop.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s gap down to 27.75-27.50 reacted up sharply and probed two-week old highs up to 28.30. The session still could not muster a positive close. Closing above 28.15 might be able to extend the bounce to its 30.00-30.35 target, but there is otherwise no signal.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday’s gap up to test 149-08 was equally productive as Thursday’s steep reaction up to 148-08 from fresh lows, but neither gained traction. But the bounce should not extend any higher Monday for optimal confirmation that Thursday morning’s 147-10 low will be retested down to the drop’s 147-08 target.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Despite the rally targeting 96.15/98.85 being free to resume, Friday’s open gapped under the 92.65 pullback limit, and ranged around 92.65 throughout the day. The close recovered 92.65, and the rally remains free to resume.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s failed spike up suffered further consequences Friday by gapping down to Monday’s low at 2.85 and trending lower to 2.76 into the weekend. There is no active signal.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Currencies extended their retracements of last week’s trending Thursday, to make-it or break-it levels. Any lower in the Euro, for example, would signal a much larger dip underway.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s gap up extended higher to test 82.80, whose recovery would likely be irreversible before retesting last week’s 83.60 high. Pullbacks must hold 82.65 to maintain the rally’s momentum.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Closing Thursday under 1.2300 may have seemed out of range, but Wednesday’s pattern suggested it would at least be tested. In fact, it was probed throughout the day. The decline’s momentum remains intact so long as 1.2320 now holds as resistance.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s firming stopped short of fresh highs, let alone touching 1627.50 whose recovery would trigger a new upleg.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s narrow ranging undermined Wednesday’s recovery from gapping down. Its recovery had stopped short of gaining traction anyway. But now a rally is less likely, or less likely to gain any traction.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Fresh lows Thursday came within 2 ticks of the 147-08 target before reacting up sharply back above 148-06, still closing negative on the day. The negative close suggests Thursday’s low will be retested, while the steep reaction up suggests that sellers are losing momentum.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Wednesday’s pullback persisted through Thursday, but more as a function of time and less as a deeper retracement. Having held 92.65, the rally is free to resume to its 96.15/98.85 targets.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) A small gap down under 3.00 Thursday was recovered by the morning’s EIA report, which triggered a spike up to 3.12. A late-afternoon plunge fell back under 3.00, and back under the 2.98 buy signal whose recovery would have targeted at least a retest the recent rally’s 3.26 target.

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Today’s Highlight Crude Oil dipped a little Wednesday. Not enough to reverse momentum down, but also not enough to complete a pullback. Perhaps a little further pause Thursday will allow Natural Gas and other energies to join more substantially if/when Crude Oil’s upleg were to resume.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s ranging in negative territory almost qualified as being “ineffectual pessimism.” Wednesday’s gap up confirmed. Closing Thursday above 82.80 should be irreversible before retesting last week’s 83.60 high

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s ranging in positive territory almost qualified as being “ineffectual optimism.” Wednesday’s gap down under both Monday and Tuesday’s lows confirmed. Closing Thursday under 1.2300 should be irrecoverable before retesting last week’s 1.2140 low.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s gap down quickly recovered to spend the day ranging narrowly in positive territory, under Tuesday’s high. The open’s “warning shot across the bow” must still close under 1602.00 and 1584.00 to signal and confirm momentum having reversed down. Closing above 1627.50 would still signal a more durable rally.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s gap down quickly recovered to spend the day ranging narrowly in positive territory, under Tuesday’s high. The recovery must resume almost immediately to avoid retesting Wednesday’s low, and then lower.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) An opening bounce soon failed Wednesday and resumed the decline down to 148-00, nearing the next 147-08 target.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s fresh high up to 94.42 extended only slightly higher Wednesday before reversing back down to come within a quarter of the 92.65 pullback limit, maintaining the rally’s momentum and its 96.15/98.85 targets.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Although Tuesday’s recovery had confirmed Monday’s lows were only noise, it did not recover the 3.05 buy signal. Wednesday’s dip allows the buy signal to be lowered to 2.98.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long bond broke to new lows Tuesday, further confirming a major top is forming.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s gap down probed slightly under Monday’s low, and later recovered to almost fill the opening gap. Ranging exclusively in negative territory almost qualifies as “ineffectual pessimism,” which would be no longer ineffectual if no rally has been launched by noon Wednesday.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s gap up probed slightly above Monday’s high, and later dipped to almost fill the opening gap. Ranging exclusively in positive territory almost qualifies as “ineffectual optimism, which would be no longer ineffectual if no downleg has been launched by noon Wednesday.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Not extending the decline Monday prevented confirming it. Back under 1602.00 would try to resume it, confirmed under 1584.00. There is otherwise room to test 1627.50 resistance before signaling a new upleg may be underway.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s probing above the 27.75 buy signal extended higher Tuesday to attack 28.25. The buy signal should now be confirmed and targeting 30.00-30.35. Following-through Wednesday should close above 28.300 for optimal confirmation.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s corrective bounce only attacked the original 150-13 sell signal as resistance. Tuesday’s open gapped down under Friday’s 149-08 prior low and extended down to 148-10. Any bounce here should be only temporary as the decline extends down to 147-08.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Monday’s extension above last week’s 89.50 buy signal extended even further Tuesday to probe fresh highs up to 94.42. The rally remains intact so long as pullbacks were to hold 92.65, next targeting 96.15 and 98.85.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday’s dip to a fresh low at 2.82 was recovered to close positive at 2.90. Recovering from a probe under Friday’s low only suggested the drop was noise. Tuesday’s further recovery back above Friday’s high to test 3.00 confirmed it. A close above 3.05 is still recovered to signal a new upleg underway.

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