Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Can Gold stretch the rubber band any tighter without breaking it? If not, then at this stage it should snap back up sharply.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Fresh highs overnight up to 81.75 were only attacked intraday to within a nickel  At least its retest is likely, if not also fulfilling potential up to 82.00, so long as pullbacks now were to hold 81.30 as support.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) After fulfilling the long-outstanding potential to 1.2725 Tuesday, Fresh lows were probed overnight down to 1.2760. But bounces throughout the day continually probed 1.2725 as resistance, which was still being tested at the close. Avoiding capitulation is not necessarily bullish until an aggressive rally becomes obvious, which would be triggered above 1.2833.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Sharply lower lows overnight soon fulfilled the drop’s next target at 1526.50. The morning’s bounce back up to 1552.00 was retraced back down to 1530.50. The overnight low should be retested, but closing back above 1537.00 would signal that a low was forming. Otherwise, the next lower target is 1501.00.

Silver Jun Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s gap down to 27.35-27.40 launched a bounce back up to Tuesday’s 27.90 higher prior lows. This narrowly missed filling the gap back to Tuesday’s 28.00 close before reversing down to new lows at 26.73. Closing Thursday back above 28.00 would target 28.65, but the trend otherwise remains down.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Potential to fresh highs was limited to only 146-31 overnight. So, the morning’s reaction down to 145-25 was unable to gain traction. And no wonder, since the session recovered to new highs at 147-02. This may finally be the trend-ending surge we have been expecting, which would seal a top by closing back under 146-06. Otherwise, the surge can still test 147-08/147-10.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The next lower objective at 91.75 was met to within a nickel overnight before Wednesday’s open. It was never tested intraday, and the close was under the morning’s low, suggesting a retest of 91.75 coming Thursday.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Two pullbacks had tested 2.40 and 2.45, not yet dipping deeper to retest the prior consolidation. Despite that shallow correction, Wednesday’s open gapped up already surged through the rally’s original 2.50 target, and extended up to 2.63. The rally’s momentum remains intact and next targeting 2.68 so long as pullbacks now hold 2.55 as support..

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The timing for either an up-crash or down-crash in Gold and the Euro is coming in right on schedule with each probing aggressively lower. Their markets are uniquely vulnerable to reacting up sharply, or else to plunging significantly further.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Only a shallow dip would have been allowable to maintain potential for extending up to 81.10 and 82.00. Tuesday’s open spiked up sharply and extended to 81.40, keeping 82.00 in-play so long as pullbacks now hold 81.10.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) An overnight bounce to 1.2871 held the 1.2875 bounce limit so the decline could extend to its 1.2725 target. Now the drop’s momentum remains intact so long as 1.2790 holds as resistance. Back above 1.2833 would suggest a recovery is underway.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Monday night’s low blipped-down to 1546.80. The regular session essentially ranged relatively narrowly around Monday’s 1556.50 lows before finally breaking lower under the overnight low. The drop targeting 1526.50 remains intact.

Silver Jun Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) More fresh lows Tuesday have now essentially fulfilled potential to 27.60. Bounces have room up to 29.00 without yet gaining traction for a recovery.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Continual probing of Monday’s highs suggest that a surge to 147-08/147-10 will try to end this leg of the rally. There otherwise remains room down to 145-20 before suggesting that sellers are gaining traction.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s high came within 2 cents of its 95.50 bounce limit before dipping back to session lows, and then sharply lower to new lows testing 93.00. Despite being at new lows, bounces still have room up to 95.50 before signaling that sellers may be losing traction.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Side-stepping the carnage and volatility among other markets does not make Natural Gas any more likely to rally without a deeper pullback first.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight While Gold and the Euro each plunge into tests of very important targets, each is forming a pattern that tends to resolve either in an up-crash, or a down-crash. I call it the (up)crash(down), and it forms in 10-11 consecutive sessions that contain only 1-2 counter-trend closes. It tends to resolve either by accelerating the current trend, or by reversing it.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Gapping open to 80.70 Monday fulfilled a lot of selling pressure. So, only shallow dips are allowed for optimal confirmation that the 81.10 and potentially 82.00 targets remain in-play.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s open gapped down to fulfill its next major target at 1.2850. There is potential down to 1.2725 on this leg so long as bounces were to hold 1.2875 as resistance.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The requirement to retest last Thursday night’s 1572.00 low down to 1568.00 was done Monday down to 1555.00. Despite plunging $28, the session’s 1561.40 was still being tested at the close. An Island Reversal would require gapping up above 1578.50. Otherwise, any bounce would be likely to hold 1584.50. The trend otherwise remains down and next targeting 1526.50.

Silver Jun Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s outperformance that I noted yesterday was essentially negated by Monday’s close at new lows. It can be reinstated by gapping up Tuesday above 29.00, but the trend otherwise remains down.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Falling stocks, Gold and Euro (take your pick) kept alive the flight-to-quality. And Friday’s test of its 143-05 target — not having been rejected through the close — was extended up to 146-15. Post-open action essentially ranged sideways, and the close essentially returned to the opening print, so the rally has extended grudgingly. Its objective is 146-28, so long as 145-20 were not broken through any close.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Too much delay in recovering from the 95.50 target had made new lows likely to resume the decline. Sunday night’s drop to fresh lows was maintained through Monday. Absent gapping up above 95.50 Tuesday, the trend remains down and next targeting 91.75.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The rally’s 2.50 target continued to hold as resistance, as Monday’s session dipped under 2.45. While a deeper pullback should be unavoidable, first spending so much time at the target suggests that any pullback would be only a correction that resolves up in new highs.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Thursday’s narrow ranging suggested a “calm before the storm.” It began pouring overnight, and Friday’s open was full of thunder and lightning. Gold was among the most volatile, retesting the decline’s original target, after probing new lows overnight.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Friday’s moening and afternoon highs tested and retested Wednesday’s 80.41 high, after having probed it slightly overnight. The trend remains up so long as 80.10 were to hold as support.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s narrow ranging had confirmed the decline remained intact. Friday’s gap down and then a retest of session lows both stopped short of touching Wednesday’s 1.2910 prior low, despite having probed it overnight. The decline’s momentum remains intact so long as 1.2980 is not recovered.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) There was no bigger bounce, after all, before trying to resume the decline. Thursday’s night’s new low at 1572.00 was recovered enough to limit Friday’s gap down to retesting the decline’s original 1584.00 target. That’s where regular trading closed, which suggests that sellers have lost traction. The 1572.00 should still be tested intraday — probably down to 1568.00 — and its recovery back above 1584.00 would then form a durable bottom.

Silver Jun Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Without first extending Wednesday and Thursday’s bounce, new lows Friday tested 28.40 before recovering up to 29.05. Now avoiding a close under 28.70 would help to form a bottom, and the attraction back up to 30.00 could be the catalyst for a larger recovery attempt.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The requirement to retest Wednesday’s 145-03 opening gap up was fulfilled overnight before Friday’s open. It was retested into the close following an intraday dip. There is no new signal, and no unfinished business above.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s gap down was recovered entirely, but not permanently, as the afternoon slid back toward the morning’s low. Regardless, a recovery from the drop’s 95.50 target may have been delayed too long not to resume the decline to 91.75.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Friday’s shallower bounce did hold the adjusted 2.45 pullback limit. But the rally’s 2.50 target held as resistance. A close above 2.50 is needed to signal the rally extending, instead of preparing for a larger corrective dip.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Thursday’s highlight was its lack of highlights. Even the long bond’s drop on Claims and recovery on Auction finished the session almost unchanged. Calm before the storms?

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Narrow, lifeless “ranging” throughout Thursday did serve at least one bullish purpose, by not immediately rejecting Wednesday’s gap up to new highs.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s session picked an interesting price to flatline at, which was the 1.2955 target area. It was already tested Wednesday, so it may not extend down immediately, but a bounce should fail.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) An overnight dip held the drop’s 1584.00 target and then rallied Thursday $6 above Wednesday’s high to 1602.00. Two sessions of testing support allows a bigger bounce — like back up to 1610.50 — before trying to resume the decline.

Silver Jun Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s high barely filled the gap back up to Tuesday’s 29.44 close, but the session’s narrow range still allows a retest of 30.00 before trying to resume the decline.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Gapping down on Jobless Claims and extending lower was consolidated back up to 143-30. A fresh low at 143-18 was saved by the afternoon’s auction results, triggering a recovery to within 2 ticks of Wednesday’s 144-14 close. That last bit of pessimism maintained a session of “ineffectual pessimism,” that maintains the potential for filling the gap back up to 145-03 open.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s range fluctuated narrowly around unchanged from Wednesday’s close. This delay in rejecting Wednesday’s redundant retest of 95.50 all but requires another fresh low.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The 2.40 pullback limit was tested to within 1-2 cents. The EIA report triggered a probe back above the rally’s 2.50 target by 1-2 cents.Now pullbacks must hold 2.44 for the rally to extend any higher.

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