Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Euro’s plunge to new lows and Gold’s plunge back to its lows each fulfilled big targets, made all the more bullish for testing them in unison. At this stage of their patterns, the alternative to lower lows is a big, bullish bounce.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The attraction back to last week’s 81.93 high helped to extend the recovery to its 82.00 target, probed Wednesday up to 82.35. A pullback has room down to 81.95 before signaling a bigger drop underway, or preventing the rally from extending to 82.70.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s rejection of Monday’s dubious late strength didn’t wait long to suffer the consequences, and to retest last week’s lows. Wednesday’s open gapped down sharply and eventually tested new lows at 1.2545. A bounce could test 1.2655 before suggesting the drop had ended, but any higher could quickly reverse up sharply.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s gap down to 1578.00 had signaled the bounce was over, putting into play 1552.50 and 1533.00. Both were fulfilled Wednesday morning. A recovery into and out of the close retested the 1561.00 opening print, suggesting that sellers gained no traction for their efforts. That much of the recovery was too late to signal momentum reversing up, so there is no active signal.

Silver Jun Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s gap down tested last week’s 27.10 low, and held. Back above 27.85-28.11 would signal a bottom had formed, and that momentum had reversed up.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday’s gap down to 146-28 wasn’t the product of strong hands, and it had narrowly avoided triggering a sell signal there. Wednesday’s open confirmed, by gapping up sharply and extending to fresh highs. Last week’s 148-22 overnight high was attacked but wasn’t touched, and its reaction down to 148-08 wasn’t deep enough to reverse momentum down, so there is no active signal.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Not immediately rallying Wednesday made the decline likely to resume. Closing lower confirmed the 86.00 target is in-play.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The morning and afternoon both ranged only narrowly around 2.72. That seems somewhat optimistic ahead of Thursday’s EIA report, so there is still potential to resolve up.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Tuesday’s price action among most futures was relatively subdued. Apart from some opening gaps, intraday volatility was minimal. Another calm before the storm?

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s testing of 81.30 support was rejected immediately by Tuesday’s gap up. A retest of last week’s 81.93 high is in-play so long as 81.30 holds as support.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s late surge offered dubious confirmation to Friday’s new relative high close. Tuesday’s gap down confirmed suspicions, and the morning extended lower to test 1.2725 support. Bounces should now hold 1.2740-1.2750 as resistance on the way back down to retesting last week’s 1.2645 low.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s gap down to 1578.00 support could have formed an Island that would eventually attract price higher. But a bounce already filled the gap back to Monday’s close, before reversing back down to session lows. There is no unfinished business above, and a second consecutive lower close Wednesday would signal a retest of underway of 1552.50 and potentially also 1533.00.

Silver Jun Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s gap down to 28.15 had not gained traction, making the gap back to Friday’s 28.75 close likely to be filled. Its test Tuesday was rejected that afternoon back down to 28.15. Back under 27.65-27.90 would signal a bigger decline underway.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Holding Monday’s test of 147-14 support suggested a fresh intraday high retesting 148-22 was likely. But Tuesday’s open gapped down to 146-28. Ranging narrowly around it all day did not give sellers traction, and now there is an attraction above back to the gap from Monday’s 148-00 close. But a second consecutive lower close would trigger a bigger decline targeting 144-20/145-04.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Monday’s intraday failure to break above Friday’s highs kept buyers from gaining traction. Tuesday’s retest of the decline’s 92.05 (91.75 basis June) target must launch an immediate recovery above 92.70-92.90, or else a lower close would put into play 86.00.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Having held the 2.62 pullback limit through Monday’s close, Tuesday’s recovery leaves no unfinished business below. But a close above 2.72 would resume the rally, next targeting 2.87 and 3.03.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Euro made fresh recovery highs Monday, without Gold coming along, after lagging behind Gold on Thursday. A useful object lesson in not relying on correlated markets to turn in unison, or to the same degree.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Despite already testing it at Friday’s weak close, Monday’s probes under 81.30 failed to gain traction, and 81.30 was still being tested at the close. Back above 81.55 would resume the rally next targeting 82.00.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s last-minute surge to 1.2788 wasn’t immediately rejected, but it was retraced somewhat. And then it was probed up to 1.2814. Monday’s second consecutive higher close suggests a bottom is forming, targeting 1.2920, so long as 1.2725 were to hold as support.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The third consecutive session of the upcrash setup normally peaks into that morning’s strength. But there was no strength Monday as the session ranged narrowly around unchanged. A fresh high would still target 1611.00, and back under 1578.00 would signal momentum reversing down.

Silver Jun Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s gap down retraced all of Friday’s gains back to Thursday’s close. But the balance of the session only ranged narrowly sideways instead of extending down. So, the gap back to Friday’s 29.70 close is likely to be filled.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Bonds naturally softened as stocks rallied Monday, losing their utility as a “flight-to-quality.” But weakness was relatively soft compared to the stock market rally, holding a pre-open test of the 147-14 sell signal. Its break would still be bearish, but a retest of 148-22 has become more likely first.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Not only was 91.75 recovered through Monday’s close, but Monday’s open was already well on its way to rejecting Friday’s close under it. Recovering Friday’s 92.70 high before the close would have been more convincing than afterward. But any initial follow-through Tuesday would get a benefit of the doubt for extending higher.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday’s open gapped down and the balance of the session weakened to 2.59 — effectively still testing 2.62 as support through the close. The gap back to Friday’s close will want to be filled, sooner rather than later, especially if Tuesday’s open were not immediately resuming Monday’s drop..

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas extended higher without any deeper correction. April 23’s UNG long from 14.75-14.95 is attacking its 20.00 target. That isn’t necessarily a top, but its test — especially if done on Monday — may be the last opportunity to trigger a healthy refueling pullback.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) A slightly higher high overnight was not retested Friday. But the intraday pullback still avoided testing 81.30, let alone breaking under it which would trigger a sizable downleg.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Another new trend low — this time under 1.2650 and this time only overnight — nonetheless returned back up to the decline’s 1.2725 objective. Then a late-afternoon surge tested 1.2788. A second consecutive higher close would suggest a bottom was in. Otherwise, the downtrend should soon resume.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s upcrash extended higher Friday instead of being rejected through the open, so it is now likely to extend higher into Monday morning, probably to 1611.00. Back under 1578.00 would signal the rally had ended already.

Silver Jun Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The rally extended higher Friday, closing above 28.65 but not quite yet touching 29.00, which remains in-play so long as 28.65 were to hold as support.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Fresh highs overnight up to 148-20 were retraced intraday down to 147-18, holding the 147-22 pullback limit. Buyers gained no new traction and closing under 147-14 would signal momentum reversing down.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The decline’s 91.75 target was finally tested intraday. But new lows were probed into the close down to 91.08. Unless 91.75 were recovered through Monday’s close, the next lower target at 86.00 is in-play.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Despite being suspicious for not yet having corrected any deeper on the way up, the rally extended to fresh highs Friday at 2.76. Now the rally can extend up to 2.88 so long as pullbacks were to hold 2.62 as support.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Having met a major target overnight, yesterday’s Gold close suggested its plunge could be within hours of ending. Stretching the rubber band any tighter would have broken it. Instead, the pattern snapped back up sharply, retracing all of the prior three days’ losses. One day does not a bottom make, so any slowdown in its recovery could be a problem.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Potential to 82.00 remained alive by pullbacks holding 81.30. But a probe above Wednesday’s 81.75 high was retraced, threatening the rally’s momentum. Now closing under 81.30 would signal momentum reversing down.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The long-outstanding potential to 1.2725 has not lost its influence despite having been tested already Wednesday. Fresh intraday lows are continually retraced to test 1.2725 as resistance. There is no unfinished business below — opening gaps have been filled already — but the ranging is neutralizing the drop’s recent oversold condition to allow another downleg to begin.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The 1526.50 target was never retested intraday after touching it before Wednesday’s open. And 1537.00‘s recovery didn’t wait for the close before extending sharply higher to nearly 1580.00 Thursday. The bounce’s peak should be a test of the prior downleg’s 1584.50 target, or else its recovery would target 1611.00.

Silver Jun Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s “ineffectual pessimism” that narrowly missed filling a gap above was helpful to attract price higher Thursday. Its gap up above 27.50 extended up to 28.30. The close was still testing 28.00, whose recovery would have put into play 28.65 and 29.00. Regardless, a test of 26.75-27.00 is needed before a durable rally can be signaled.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The 147-08/147-10 target was finally tested, probing it by 1 point. A pullback has room down to 147-22 and 147-14 to maintain this upleg’s momentum. A durable downleg is unlikely before at least retesting Thursday’s high from below. But closing under 146-28 would be vulnerable to a much more substantial decline.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The drop’s 91.75 target still requires being tested intraday. So Thursday’s bounce to 93.88 was reversed into negative territory. But only to within 35-cents of 91.75. Reacting from its test to close back above 94.00 would seal a bottom.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thurdsay’s dip back to the rally’s 2.50 target held, reacting back up, but closing slightly negative on the day. This latest upleg remains suspicious.

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