Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Currencies recovered Thursday from initially correcting Wednesday’s breakouts, closing at new trend extremes to confirm their momentum remains intact. Immediate follow-through isn’t required, but Thursday’s intraday extremes should not prove to be trend extremes.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Despite gapping down Thursday, the session recovered to close at new relative highs. Its second consecutive higher close confirmed the breakout. While only 83.45 is targeted, breaking it could signal a much steeper rally is underway into and out of the weekend.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Despite gapping up Thursday, the session reversed down to close at new relative lows. Unless rejected immediately Friday, the break is now confirmed to be targeting 1.2255.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Closing back under 1561.00 Thursday would have resumed the decline. Its support was probed, but only to launch a retest of Wednesday’s 1572.00 area highs. The intraday volatility has continued to avoid triggering any parameter through a close.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s dip held a retest of 27.50 and bounced back to unchanged levels around 28.00. But the balance of the session ranged sideways, avoiding a second consecutive higher close that would have confirmed momentum reversing up.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) A shallower pullback overnight to 148-18 recovered to fresh highs Thursday at 150-26. Potential up to 151-14 (152-00 basis Jun) remains alive so long as pullbacks hold 149-06.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The decline’s 86.00 target was met at Thursday’s 85.86 low. A steep reaction up to 87.64 was retraced back down toward 86.00. A retest of 86.00 is likely, but it is also likely to hold near-term.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s modest gap down nevertheless probed fresh pullback lows at 2.38. A reaction up to 2.50 ways retraced back to unchanged levels — and only back to unchanged levels, as sellers did not gain traction for their effort. Now any close above 2.50 would target 2.66 and 2.76.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Currencies extended their trends Wednesday, aggressively. Extending them further Thursday could lead to yet steeper moves into and out of the weekend.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s peak at the 82.70 target suggested either the rally was ending, or that its pace was about accelerate. In fact, Wednesday’s open gapped up to 82.70 and the session trended up to new highs at 83.10, next targeting 83.45 so long as Thursday’s close is not back under 82.70.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Potential for extending down to 1.2255 seems intact as Wednesday’s open gapped down and the balance of the session trended down throughout to 1.2380. An interim bounce back up to 1.2485 or to 1.2525 cannot yet be discounted.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) While avoiding a bullish close back above 1560.00, or a bearish close under 1547.00, Wednesday’s session plunged to 1532.00 and then recovered up to 1571.00. The solid buying at 1534.00-1537.00 might suggest a bottom is in, except that impatient buyers keep preventing any pent-up buying pressure. Closing back under 1559.00 would resume the decline, to at least retest the lows. There is otherwise no active buy signal.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Retesting and holding 27.50 support was capable of forming a bottom. Its test Wednesday did react back up. But now a second consecutive higher close Thursday is needed to signal momentum reversing up. There is otherwise no active buy signal.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The long wait for triggering a sell signal may have ended Wednesday, with the gap up and intraday trending to new highs testing 149-22. A second consecutive higher close Thursday would confirm a breakout targeting 152-00. Otherwise, closing Thursday back under 148-25 would suggest at least a deeper corrective dip underway.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Several days after putting into play the next lower target at 86.00, the interim bouncing finally ended. The drop resumed with a vengeance, gapping down $1.40 and extending down another $2 to test 87.35. A second consecutive lower close Thursday would confirm the break, although a bounce has room to 88.60.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Still not finding a bottom, so no active pattern or parameter — with EIA reporting Thursday.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Dollar Index peaked Tuesday at a significant target, while Gold and Silver fell to or toward their own relevant support. If these markets do not reverse their recent direction Wednesday, then their paces should accelerate sharply.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Sunday night’s dip to 81.90 recovered to close above the 82.25 pullback limit, allowing Tuesday’s surge to 82.71 to fulfill the 82.70 target. Fresh highs could still test 83.45 so long as 82.25 still holds as support.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The 1.2555 bounce limit was probed Sunday night, but held through Tuesday’s open to launch a probe of fresh lows down to 1.2462. Potential for extending down to 1.2255 depends upon not recovering 1.2555.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Monday night’s rally to 1583.50 was reversed sharply down to 1545.70. Now closing back above 1560.00 would help to launch another rally leg targeting 1611.00. Otherwise, closing under 1547.00 would signal the ranging had ended, likely to begin trending down.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Having been robbed last week of near-term predictability, the pattern tested fresh highs at 28.75 Sunday night, and dove to 27.71 Tuesday morning. There is no active buy signal, and probably wouldn’t be calculable without first retesting and holding 27.50 support.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Relative calm Sunday night, Monday night and Tuesday didn’t attract bond sellers. Perhaps it was due to the gap back to last Wednesday’s 148-08 close that needed filling first. Its reaction back to 147-24 support isn’t relevant, except that it was tested instead of the rally extending. A close under 147-14 is still needed to reverse momentum down.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Despite bouncing Tuesday to 92.21, a reversal back down to 90.25 closed again back under 91.10-91.50 to maintain the likelihood for resuming the decline, next targeting 86.00.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s selling go carried away, testing 2.47 instead of bouncing off of 2.52 to end the correction. There is no active parameter.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Euro attracted its share of selling pressure ahead of the two-day illiquidity, and ahead of growing expectations for Greece’s exit. But there was no runaway selling as the market stared each other down into the weekend.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) 82.25 held a test as support overnight and through Friday’s open to maintain potential for extending the rally to its 82.70 target. The balance of the session only ranged narrowly around Thursday’s 82.50 high, so 82.25 must still hold as support.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Overnight strength essentially held 1.2550 as resistance, keeping alive the drop’s momentum. A fresh low under 1.2500 was retraced back to unchanged where most of the session ranged narrowly. But the drop’s momentum remains intact so long as 1.2550 is not recovered.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday afternoon’s pullback did not extend down any lower than 1550.70. But that wasn’t enough to resume the decline, allowing a reaction up to 1570.00-1573.00. A signal should be generated sometime Monday.

Silver Jun Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s inside day did not extend above 27.85-28.11, which would have reversed momentum up. The lack of sponsorship on a Friday has robbed the pattern of any near-term predictability.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday’s narrow ranging did not affect any previous forming patterns, so there remains no active signal.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s inside day did not affect any existing patterns, so the 86.00 target remains in-play.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s narrow range — especially against the background of its weekly EIA report — had made the rally likelier to correct down before extending up. Friday’s open did break immediately under 2.70 (2.62 basis Jun) on the way to 2.61. Another low at 2.52 should end the correction so the rally can resume uninhibited.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight A lot of choppy intraday volatility among various futures, one day after so many major targets were met. If this is a “pause that refreshes” the prevailing trends, then look for them to accelerate their paces.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The rally’s 82.00 target that was met Wednesday served as support Thursday morning to launch an extension of the rally to fresh highs at 82.53. Potential to 82.70 remains alive so long as 82.25 holds as support.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Fresh lows overnight tested 1.2515 before bouncing back up to 1.2545. There is still room up to 1.2655 before signaling the drop has ended.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The $30 rally Wednesday’s off of the decline’s 1533.00 target left the pattern without a predictable next step. So it isn’t surprising that extending the rally Thursday morning back to the original 1578.00 sell signal was reversed back down to 1551.00. Closing above 1561.00 would have been bullish, but there is still no predictable path.

Silver Jun Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Overnight gains repeatedly tested 27.85 resistance before breaking higher ahead of Thursday’s open, which quickly surged to 28.50. A bigger rally would be signaled by closing above 28.50, and so long as 28.00 were to hold as support.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Despite peaking Wednesday 4 ticks short of retesting last week’s 148-22 overnight high, Thursday’s open gapped down and the entire session ranged narrowly around 147-14 support. There is still no active signal.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Wednesday’s close confirmed that 86.00 is in-play. That didn’t prevent Thurdsay’s corrective bounce back up to 91.50. Its reaction down held 90.30 as support, whose break would signal the decline had resumed.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s range was  largely contained within 2.65-2.72. The EIA report didn’t shake things up, and it should have been a catalyst for expanding volatility. This always makes me suspicious, so any further delay to extending the rally would suggest a corrective dip coming.

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