Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas is getting a lot of attention as its relentless slide gets a shiny new $1 handle. New lows are not a buy signal, even if a target were being tested, which is not.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Bouncing only slightly Tuesday allowed further delaying the recovery. So, Wednesday dipped under Monday’s 79.80 low. Its reaction up still left outstanding the gap back to Tuesday’s 80.10 close. The rally is still likely to resume so long as 79.80 holds as support.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s dip was too shallow to resume the decline. Wednesday’s bounce held 1.3145 resistance and closed back under prior highs. Back under 1.3075 should resume the decline.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s test of the 1661.00 bounce target held through Wednesday. But there was no meaningful reaction down, suggesting that at least a probe of fresh highs is coming. Rejecting it to close back under 1657.00 would signal momentum reversing down.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s dip held a test of 31.45 to avoid signaling momentum reversing down. Now having backed off from 31.75, closing back above it would target 32.30 and higher.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Rallying stocks lured money from Tuesday’s flight-to-safety destination. Wednesday’s pullback used all but 2 ticks of its 140-12 pullback limit, whose break through the close would have targeted 138-00. Meanwhile, a bounce to 141-16 has become likely first.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Still range bound between 98.85-104.70, with recoveries above 102.25 being slightly likelier to test the range’s upper-end first, but no compelling pattern otherwise.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Dipping under $2 makes it more difficult to recover 2.13 and trigger a bigger rally. And now there is that much more room to absorb buying pressure before even threatening a better close.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The stock market’s plunge revealed an interesting divergence in the Euro, and wildness in Gold.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) While Tuesday’s bounce suggests that the pullback has ended, not decisively recovering back above Monday’s 80.25 high does require a second consecutive higher close to confirm.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s drop bottomed upon filling the gap back to Monday’s opening print. Closing under 1.3050 Wednesday would confirm the downleg had resumed.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Intraday weakness nearly filled the gap back down to Thursday’s 1631.50 close before reversing back up through 1640.50 to fulfill the next higher bounce target at 1657.00-1661.00. It was still being tested into the close. Closing back under 1657.00 Wednesday would prevent extending to 1678.50 and 1687.50.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s reaction down from 31.75 to 13.11 was recovered entirely, but no higher than 31.75, still having potential to 32.30 before signaling any bigger rally may be underway.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Plunging stocks encouraged a flight-to-safety that added a point. Closing above 141-20 Wednesday would put into play 143-00. Otherwise, a pullback has room down to 140-12 before signaling a bigger drop targeting 138-00.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Monday’s recovery back above 102.25 barely extended any higher Tuesday before falling to fresh lows. Last Wednesday’s 100.08 low was still being tested at the close, not clearly recovered, so the corrective bounce targeting 104.70 may be delayed until first touching 98.85.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Sunday night’s new low had yet to be tested intraday. It was probed by new lows into Tuesday’s close, further avoiding any recovery pattern.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold jumped on fundamentals from India. But a lot of buying pressure was expended while fulfilling its bounce target. Other metals did not participate in the rally.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s drop back to 79.85 held Wednesday’s lows as support. The rally would resume above 80.05, preferably without first dipping further down to 79.60-79.70.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday ultimately bounced, almost filling the gap back to Wednesday’s 1.3145 close. Back under 1.3115 would suggest the downleg had resumed.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The 1640.50 bounce target was probed by $8 Sunday night. Its reaction held 1637.00 before recovering back to 1650.00. Then 1637.00 held another test. Almost any further break under 1637.00 would resume the decline. Otherwise, the bounce could extend next up to 1657.00-1661.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The 32.05 bounce limit was tested Sunday night. A drop from to 31.31 managed to close back above 31.45 to avoid signaling the decline had resumed. Closing above 31.75 would target 32.30, but there is no other bullish pattern.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) A dip pierced 137-28 by 2 only ticks before Friday’s Employment Situation report. Its reaction spiked up 2 points, and eventually 3, touching 140-26 intraday Monday. This probe into 140-22/140-29 resistance held through the close. A pullback has room down to 137-16/137-26 before signaling that momentum is reversing back down.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The bounce did not extend higher than , let alone to 104.70, which was put into play just for having recovered 102.25. Fresh lows Monday tested 100.81, but then recovered to close back above 102.25. Now the gap back up to Friday’s 103.25 close should attract price up to 104.70.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) A new low Sunday night under 2.08 down to 2.06 wasn’t repeated intraday Monday. Neither was it rejected, still requiring a close above 2.13 to target at least 2.31. But now an intraday test of 2.06 would help to assure that no unfinished business below remained outstanding.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Bonds ended the holiday-shortened week not with a whimper, but with a bang. They surged overnight in a flight-to-safety as stocks plunged. Has the bearish pattern been undone, or can Friday’s Employment Situation report fulfill this optimism?

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s open repeated Wednesday’s gap up. And like Tuesday, the follow-through was largely contained, and the gap up was maintained. The rally remains intact so long as 80.10 holds as support.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s gap down repeated Wednesday’s gap down, and also ranged sideways through the close. 1.3020 remains in-play so long as bounces hold 1.3100 as resistance.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s close had narrowly avoided closing back above 1622.00 which would have robbed sellers of their traction to signal a corrective bounce. Thursday’s open gapped up above 1622.00 to suggest the same thing. So long as 1622.00 holds as support, a bounce targeting 1640.50 is in-play.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s bounce back up to 31.75 left outstanding a gap back to Wednesday’s 31.00 close. The bounce may yet extend up to 32.05-32.30, too. But a closing under 31.45 would signal the decline had resumed, next targeting 28.70.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) An overnight surge extended higher into Thursday’s open to 139-00. Its reaction down held support at the original 137-28 sell signal. And a bounce into the close ended the day testing 138-10 resistance. Closing back under 137-28 would once again signal momentum reversing down. There is still no accumulative pattern, but closing above 138-26 and 139-05 would all but marginalize sellers. Otherwise, it seems like a lot of optimism ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s reaction up from Wednesday’s fresh low thoroughly tested 102.85 resistance. Just recovering 102.25 suggests the bounce will also test 104.70.  Unless 104.70 were recovered, the decline should then resume, next targeting 98.85.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Thursday’s opening weakness accelerated back to last week’s 2.08 low in reaction to the EIA report. The low held. Closing back above 2.13 would signal the latest dip was a correction, and that a new rally leg was underway targeting at least 2.31.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold continued to tumble Wednesday, extending its reaction to Tuesday’s FOMC Minutes.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s gap up held 80.10, whose test two weeks ago detoured to new lows. There is no bearish reason to revisit it. Its break is expected so long as pullbacks hold 79.70 as support.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s slide to new relative lows extended down overnight for Monday to gap open at 1.3150 support. Not following-through lower intraday does allow potential for a corrective bounce to 1.3185–1.3250 before resuming the drop targeting 1.3020.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s test of 1612.00-1622.00 expended a lot of energy without refueling sellers, since the overnight drop never bounced to 1657.00-1661.00. Now a corrective bounce would target 1640.50 before resuming the decline next targeting 1592.50 and potentially 1576.50.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The recent 31.09 low was retested Wednesday. The session’s gap down under 31.75 requires the drop to extend lower without delay toward its 28.70 target, or else bounce back up to 32.28.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The 137-10 bounce limit was tested as stocks fell, all the way up to 137-21. But 137-10 was still being tested as support ahead of the close, and not clearly rejected. Not resuming the downleg immediately Thursday could extend the corrective bounce up to 138-10.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s pullback to 103.70 support gapped open Wednesday under 102.85 support and extended to fresh lows testing 101.10. Back above 102.25 would trigger a corrective bounce targeting 104.70. Otherwise, the next lower objective in-play is 98.85.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Wednesday’s eventual dip to 2.13 followed a couple of intraday attacks on 2.20 that further chipped away at its resistance. A positive reaction to Thursday’s EIA report could trigger a surge through 2.20 targeting 2.31.

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