Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Tuesday’s release of FOMC Minutes captured the attention of markets across the board. That is to say, anticipation for its release kept a lid on volatility. Then the news hit, without mention of QE3, taking bonds and Gold down hard.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Narrow ranging Tuesday once again held a test of the gap back to Friday’s 78.99open. The FOMC news triggered a surge to 79.65. A second consecutive close above 79.70 would seal a bottom and put into play a rally targeting 80.70.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday ranged narrowly around 1.3333 until FOMC news sent price sharply lower to 1.3218. That’s under all of last week’s lows. A second consecutive lower close under 1.3220 would confirm a new downleg underway targeting 1.3020.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s close under 1678.50 robbed the corrective bounce of its momentum. The effect was quickly realized, as FOMC news triggered a plunge down to 1640.20. Resistance at 1657.00-1661.00 is likely to be retested since it was largely ignored as support on the way down. Regardless, recovering 1657.00-1661.00 is the minimum requirement to resume the rally.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Despite recovering Tuesday’s gap down to probe above Monday’s high up to 33.30, the FOMC reaction triggered a plunge to fresh session lows testing 32.50. That is also natural support at “lower prior highs,” making a bounce likely back to 32.90-33.10.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Gapping up to test Monday’s 138-22 high was pointless when there was no accumulative pattern. The plunge to 136-17 on FOMC Minutes proved why. There was no bullish reason to retest this prior low. Extending any lower Wednesday — or at least holding 137-10 as resistance — would confirm a new downleg underway targeting 136-26 and 134-10.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s dip held 103.65 support. The dip was relatively shallow, which was its only consistency with Monday’s impressive recovery from the opening dip. Regardless, a valid rally should resume without delay.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Tuesday’s opening surge held its test of 2.20 resistance through the day. The pattern is potentially accumulative, but has yet to form a trigger.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s intraday recovery from testing Friday’s low was not in itself remarkable. What made the reaction stunning was its $3 bounce back to Wednesday’s close. That was suspected for being a false break, so rejecting it would be very bullish for higher Crude Oil prices. Yay.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Friday’s gap down never extended lower intraday. Monday’s initial firming stopped pessimistically short of filling the gap back to Thursday’s 79.35 close. But the morning’s strength did make a subsequent dip relevant, neutralizing the attraction below by filling the gap back to Friday’s 78.99 open. A lower close would be less credible for extending down.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s “ineffectual optimism” inhibited extending higher Monday. It even encouraged a deeper pullback to 1.3285. But it did not prevent recovering the morning’s dip back up to and through 1.3333. A lower close would be more capable of launching a new downleg.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The corrective bounce targeting a test of the 1687.00-1688.50 gap was tested up to 1685.40 Monday. Its test remains in-play so long as pullbacks hold any test of 1678.50 as support.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s opening surge probed last week’s highs above 33.00. Unless rejected by closing back under 32.20-32.55, the bounce could extend next up to 34.00 and 34.50.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday’s close under the 137-28 sell signal was rejected immediately by Monday’s gap up above it. Extending up to 138-22 proved unsustainable when the entire follow-through was retraced back down to the 137-28 open. Almost any initial weakness Tuesday would qualify as a sell signal. There is otherwise no buy signal.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Breaking back to 102.90 support Friday did extend down initially Monday. Gapping down was required to launch a new downleg. But Monday’s opening dip was only slightly weaker.  And it was recovered from 102.06 up to fresh highs testing 105.50. No further dip is required before rallying, but a new downleg would not be triggered without closing under 103.60.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Monday’s opening weakness was shallow. And the morning’s basing launched a recovery back to the two prior sessions’ 2.15 “higher prior lows.” That’s not a buy signal, but recovering from another dip Tuesday to fresh highs above 2.20 would be very bullish for near-term follow-through.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long bond had been eking higher for a couple of session, but not really extending or reacting down. Friday’s slightly higher high was no exception. Then the weekend’s illiquidity started getting exponentially closer, helping to trigger a 1-point dive. Has its corrective bounce ended?

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s “ineffectual optimism” paid quite a price Friday by gapping down to new lows at 78.87. The entire session developed in negative territory, under prior lows. Unless 79.25 were recovered Monday, the drop could extend to 78.50 before bottoming.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s reaction to Thursday’s “ineffectual pessimism” was a gap up to probe prior highs up to 1.3383. The session essentially ranged around the 1.3350 prior high, developing exclusively in positive territory, almost qualifying as “ineffectual optimism.” But a bearish resolution depends upon quickly breaking back under 1.3294 at Monday’s open, or else the rally would next target 1.3425.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s closing test of 1657.50 extended overnight above its 1661.00 confirmation so much that Friday’s opening gap up quickly tested 1672.00. A pullback to 1661.00 was recovered to retest 1672.00. The rally could extend to 1688.50 so long as pullbacks now hold 1666.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The likely bounce to 32.50 was resolved immediately at Friday’s gap up that also tested 32.62. An intraday dip recovered to retest 32.50. Potential to 32.70 remains alive so long as pullbacks now hold 32.30 as support.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday’s open firmed to 139-05, which was consolidated through the noon hour back to 138-26. Then a steep reaction down triggered the 137-28 sell signal. So long as 138-08 is not recovered, the break is targeting at least 136-12, whose break would target 135-26 and 134-28 and lower.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s bounce into 104.35 resistance reacted down sharply to 102.90 support. That was barely positive territory, but almost any immediate strength Monday would be credible for extending higher. Otherwise, any immediate weakness probably needs to be a gap down in order to launch a new downleg.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Thursday’s plunge extended to new lows testing 2.10 Friday. This is a market that tends to duplicate Friday’s price action on Monday mornings, making fresh lows likely.

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Today’s Highlight Crude Oil plunged Thursday as it extended Wednesday’s break lower.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s gap up extended higher enough to only barely probe Wednesday’s high. The balance of the session ranged sideways in positive territory. The “ineffectual optimism” suggests that the week’s 78.93 low will be retested next if Friday’s open doesn’t rally immediately.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s gap down to Wednesday’s low spent the balance of the session ranging around Wednesday’s low. The setup is borderline “ineffectual optimism” that suggests the week’s 1.3386 high will be retested next if Friday’s open doesn’t rally immediately.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s low held the 61.8% retracement of the Island correction rally. Thursday’s lower low was recovered back above Wednesday’s low. A bigger bounce would be triggered back above 1657.00 and confirmed above 1661.00, targeting 1688.50.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s fresh low held at test of the 31.75 sell signal, making a bounce to 32.50 likely, potentially to 32.70.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The destination as a flight-to-safety during pronounced stock market weakness makes it difficult to decline. But Thursay’s 139-01 highs really only ranged around Wednesdays’ 138-27 upper-end. Regardless, a close under 137-28 is still needed to signal a downleg underway.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) New lows tested 102.25 Thursday. Unless this is a false break to be recovered almost immediately back above 103.75-104.35, then its objective is to test 101.00 and potentially 98.50.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Tuesday and Wednesday’s bottoming attempt was missing one final element to marginalize sellers. It never came as Thursday’s session plummeted to new lows. Even the quickest reaction up would still require some consolidation first, so there is no buy signal.

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Today’s Highlight Gold steals the spotlight again, having tumbled more than $40 since fulfilling its bounce target Tuesday. Its corrective bounce target.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) 79.55 was attacked early Wednesday, but not triggered by the close. It remains the buy signal, if recovered through the close.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) An early dip to attack 1.3285 was followed by a series of higher highs and higher lows. This was interesting when considering that Gold extended to lower lows. At least the bounce held 1.3333 as resistance to avoid resuming the rally. Closing under 1.3285 would trigger a new downleg.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s open immediately tested 1670.00, further extending the reaction to Tuesday’s test of the 1691.00 corrective bounce limit. A close under 1676.00 was needed to signal momentum actually reversing down. Its test as resistance produced new session lows at 1654.00. That is a 61.8% retracement of the bounce from last Thursday’s Island, so now bounces must hold 1660.00-1663.50 to maintain the decline.

Silver Apr Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The decline’s resumption required closing back under 32.25. Wednesday’s open gapped down to it, and extended sharply lower to 31.77. Closing under 31.75 would confirm the retest of last week’s 31.07 low was underway, targeting 30.90 and 29.60.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday’s gap down from testing 138-10 stopped several ticks short of triggering the 137-20 sell signal. A recovery into the noon hour probed fresh highs at 138-27. The balance of the afternoon ranged sideways around 138-10, so now a close under 137-28 would signal momentum reversing down.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Extended narrow ranging under the 107.70 buy signal gapped down to 105.80 and extended more than $1 lower intraday. This does not lower the buy signal; rather it makes the drop likelier to extend lower.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Tuesday’s fresh low was extended Wednesday by gapping down slightly. But the immediate drop did not extend, and an afternoon bounce filled the gap back to Tuesday’s close. This action is still forming a pattern with bottoming potential, but it is still premature to determine that the bottom is done forming.

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