Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Wednesday was largely a day of consolidation recent moves. Bonds bounced, currencies and crude oil fluctuated narrowly… Only Gold had sponsorship, with a steep $15 surge that nearly fulfilled the target it established one day earlier.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s gap up from Tuesday’s fresh low barely filled the gap back to Friday’s close. The balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways — all in positive territory. It was almost “ineffectual optimism,” which would have been bearish from a contrarian perspective. There is potential for another fresh low before recovering.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Ranging narrowly throughout Wednesday, instead of rejecting Tuesday’s rally to resistance, suggests that at least one more fresh high will print.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Narrow ranging through much of Wednesday’s session was suddenly interrupted by a $15 surge to 1774.00, which later extended to 1783.40. A new relative high at 1778.00-1780.00 was required, and it is now being tested. Closing above 1783.40 Thursday would put into play new highs above 1800.00. Closing under 1764.00 would trigger a very fast and steep near-term decline.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s open gapped down to test 33.90, but the balance of the session recovered back to 34.40 to fill the gap back to Tuesday’s close. Tuesday’s highs held as resistance, so its breakout was not confirmed by a second consecutive higher close. There is no active signal.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The last test of 141-00 had already produced a sizable bounce up to 143-27. There was no bullish reason to revisit it Tuesday. A close under 141-00 was nevertheless still required to confirm the drop was still targeting 140-00. But Tuesday’s retest reacted up sharply Wednesday, testing 142-05/142-12 resistance. Back under 141-26 would signal the decline had resumed. The bounce should otherwise avoid closing above 142-12.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s 106.48 high held as resistance Wednesday morning. A shallow reaction down was recovered to briefly probe a fresh high up to 106.75. But in all, Wednesday’s session ranged narrowly. There wasn’t much saber-rattling to compare the price action against, but it does confirm the rally has been related to conflict, and not necessarily to economic growth.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Wednesday’s session did not immediately rally out of Tuesday’s pullback. A mid-morning 7-8 cent spike down needed to be recovered. It was recovered, testing Tuesday’s 2.64 highs. Already rallying prior to Thursday would have been preferable for a valid breakout, but closing above 2.73 after the EIA report would still be credible for extending higher.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Greece debt crisis has passed! (…into its next stage.) The Euro extended last week’s rally, taking Gold along for the ride. Shall this, too, pass?

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The immediate reaction to the Greek debt accord was a gap under prior Friday’s lows. But no follow-through gained traction, and back above 79.45 would signal another rally leg underway to at least retest last week’s highs.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s buyers had gained no traction. Tuesday’s buyers gained no traction either, despite having extended sharply higher in the interim. The gap back to 1.3290 may be filled, and any higher would make fresh highs obligatory (e.g. 1.3333). A pullback otherwise has room down to 1.3265 before considering whether sellers were gaining traction.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Despite being free to resume the decline after Friday’s failed test of 1740.00 resistance, Tuesday’s gap up above 1740.00 extended higher intraday to 1759.50. A new relative high at 1778.00-1780.00 is all but required, with no requirement that its resistance hold, or that it break higher to new highs.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s close was finally under the original sell signal’s 33.40 confirmation, but it was too little too late. Or, that’s what required its invalidation to be so substantial. In either case, Tuesday’s close gapped up above 33.80 prior highs and extended to fresh highs above 34.35. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm a new rally leg underway. Almost any lower close would form a top, subject to its own second consecutive lower close Thursday.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The overnight stock index rally needed no “flight-to-safety,” and the bond gapped down to fresh lows Sunday night that finally tested 141-18 support. That support finally broke lower mid-morning Tuesday to test 141-00. A bounce into the close held a test of 141-18 resistance, to maintain the 140-00 target already in-play.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) More saber-rattling and other territorial challenges helped the rally to extend several dollars through 103.00 to 106.07 essentially confirmed that the 111.00 target is in-play. A second consecutive close above 103.00 Wednesday would allow a pullback to refuel buyers without reversing momentum down.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Friday’s surge through 2.61 was seemingly rejected by Tuesday’s gap down back under its intraday low. But 2.61 was tested throughout the day, holding as support to qualify as a pullback — especially if the rally were to resume Wednesday. Delaying the rally’s resumption for a deeper pullback is unnecessary at this stage if the rally is valid.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil probed fresh highs Friday ahead of a long weekend. It satisfied my $103 target, and ended the day still testing it, suggesting that next week’s open will either surge through it, or react down sharply from it.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s reversal into negative territory extended lower at Friday’s open. But its gap down was quickly retraced, and the session mostly ranged narrowly around unchanged. The rally is free to resume at any time.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s recovery into positive territory extended higher at Friday’s open. But its gap up quickly peaked at 1.3200 resistance and was quickly retraced, spending the balance of the session ranging narrowly around unchanged. The decline is free to resume at any time.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Follow-through from Thursday’s intraday recovery to 1729.00 extended only to 1737.50, despite having room up to 1740.00. Regardless, the open was quickly rejected by a dive back down to 1718.60. Holding 1720.00 support through the close prevented signaling that momentum had reversed down, which is possible at any time so long as 1740.00 is not recovered.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s 33.05 low tested Thursday’s 33.08 opening gap. Since this was after an interim bounce that touched the prior range, it neutralizes the attraction back down to Friday’s open. But the decline is still vulnerable to extending down so long as bounces hold 33.45 as resistance. Closing above 33.60 would trigger a retest of recent highs.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday’s gap down under 142-05 only touched 141-22, 4 ticks above support. The balance of the day ranged sideways under 142-05, so the break targeting 140-00 remains intact so long as 142-05 is not recovered.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Overnight firming had already come within pennies of the 103.00 target. Intraday action probed above it several times, mostly returning back under it momentarily. A second consecutive higher close above it would signal that 111.00 is in-play.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Quickly recovering 2.61 Friday would have been credible for extending higher intraday. Friday’s gap up to 2.66 retraced almost a nickel before extending higher to 2.73. The rally targeting 3.03 remains intact so long as pullbacks hold 2.61.

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Today’s Highlight Yesterday I noted that the recent Euro weakness was itself a little weak, so probably leading to a near-term low. In fact, fresh lows overnight gapped down at Thursday’s open, and then reversed up sharply into positive territory.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s gap up to a new high at 80.24 will need to be retested eventually. The intraday reversal to 79.42 could test 79.30 before suggesting the dip is anything more than a correction.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The 1.2975 overnight low was already being recovered at Thursday’s gap down. The balance of the session rallied back to and through Wednesday’s 1.3060 close to 1.3147. The gap back to Thursday’s open needs to be filled eventually. Closing back under 1.3089 would signal another downleg underway, but there is meanwhile room for the bounce to extend up to 1.3200.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s 1717.30 gap down was above Tuesday’s 1715.50 prior lows, so its gap does not require being retested despite having extended lower to 1706.70. The recovery up to 1731.60 did finally fill the gap back to Wednesday’s close, leaving no attraction above. But a fresh high up to the 1740.00 area is likely before resuming the decline.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Despite not having closed under 33.40 to confirm the 33.60 sell signal, Thursday’s open fell to fresh lows at 32.64. And because there had been no confirming close under 33.40, Thursday’s drop was not maintained. The gap back to Wednesday’s ~33.40 close was filled, neutralizing its attraction above. The gap back to Thursday’s open will need to be filled.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Rising stocks and falling Dollar equated to falling bonds. The entire last upleg was retraced back to its 142-05/142-12 origin. There is no unfinished business above, and closing under 142-05 would put into play 141-18 and 140-00.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) A mid-day surge Thursday broke above 102.00 to a fresh high at 102.69. The 103.00 target is nearing, and remains in-play so long as 101.50 holds as support. The gradual approach to the target suggests that it will be exceeded, which would put into play 111.00.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Wednesday’s close at the range’s 2.42 lower-end was not a new low close, so Thursday’s gap up was limited enough not to require filling the gap back to Wednesday’s close. The reaction to the EIA report surged through 2.51 resistance to test 2.56 through the close. Probing above 2.61 would be credible for extending higher intraday to trigger a rally leg.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Wednesday’s trading in the Euro was again a big focus as the sell-off from last week’s highs extended further down. But its weakness has been less pronounced than some other currencies, like the Yen. Not all of the Dollar’s recent strength is the product of a weaker Euro.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s probe of fresh highs ended the day ranging narrowly around the week’s prior highs. Exhibiting the same characteristic at recent lows — albeit upside-down — indicated that sellers weren’t gaining traction for their effort. Buyers will need to push forcibly higher without delay to maintain the rally’s momentum.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday’s follow-through to the pullback narrowed the distance back to prior lows. But prior lows still escaped being touched. Bouncing immediately Thursday would reflect impatient buyers, making a new downleg likely to follow a brief correction. But recovering to close positive from a new intraday dip would suggest a bigger bounce beginning.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Gapping up above 1730.00 and extending higher to 1739.20 essentially filled the gap outstanding from last Thursday’s close. But it created a new gap down to Tuesday’s 1718.60 close. That had also failed to hold 1720.00-1722.00 support, so Wednesday’s rally is vulnerable to failure unless confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Thursday.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Gapping up Wednesday to 33.75 and probing a fresh high to nearly 34.00 did not prevent dropping back to 33.10 and filling the gap back to Tuesday’s ~33.40 close. But 33.40 was still being tested at the pit close (it extended down later), so the last week’s sell signal triggered under 33.60 has yet to be confirmed.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Bonds barely reacted down while S&Ps rallied overnight into Wednesday’s open. Stocks reversing down did help to push bonds to a fresh high at 143-28 resistance. The reaction down held 143-04 to avoid trapping longs. But any lower close would signal momentum reversing down.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Retracing only back to Monday’s close on Tuesday kept the entire session bullish. Wednesday’s gap up ranged narrowly just under 102.00, presumably on the way to triggering the 103.00 buy signal that would target 111.00. Closing back under 100.50 would signal momentum reversing down.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Wednesday’s session-long slide back to last week’s lows ended the day testing 2.42, with no buy signal in sight.

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