Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s sell-off Monday required an immediate and substantial recovery to maintain the rally’s potential to new highs. Tuesday’s strong gain obliged.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The gap back down to Friday’s 78.37 close was filled Tuesday, and it held. The open’s gap down also held as support through the close. Closing any lower could trigger a new downleg. There is otherwise only a vulnerability to reversing up.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s gap up dipped negative briefly, but recovered back to the morning’s highs. While closing above 1.3425 does signal the rally’s resumption, next targeting 1.3575, closing above 1.3485 Wednesday’s would be necessary to confirm. Otherwise, closing back under 1.3390 would trigger at least a deeper corrective pullback targeting 1.3200.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The rally’s immediate requirement to recover 1778.00-1780.00 and to extend higher was fulfilled Tuesday as the session extended up to 1792.70. Pullbacks must now hold 1784.00 as support to confirm tests of 1811.50 and 1825.50 are in-play.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) A rally was required to begin Tuesday morning to avoid another sell-off. In fact, the open gapped up 50 cents to new a high at 36.10 and extended sharply higher intraday to 37.22. The 36.70-37.35 area offered very little support on the way down, so it should present a more difficult resistance being tested from below.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday’s probe 11 ticks above Monday’s high to 144-14 was retraced to close negative, still testing 143-28. Now almost any dip under Tuesday’s 143-21 low would be credible for extending down to fill the gap back to Friday’s 143-00 close.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The pullback extended deeper to 106.30 without first testing 111.00. That is still too shallow for an eventual test of the 111.00 target to avoid collapsing — recovering to close back above 106.50 after testing 105.50 intraday would be more bullish.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG))Tuesday’s open gapped down and extended down, leaving the recent probes of fresh highs behind. Now monitoring for a new accumulation pattern.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Friday’s tests of significant resistance in the Euro and Crude Oil proved influential Monday. But their shallow reactions down suggest one more thrust higher for each is coming.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s gap up back above two-week old lows at 78.50 undermined Friday’s new low close. The intraday dip barely avoided filling the gap back down to Friday’s 78.37 close, which may yet be filled. Meanwhile, recovering 78.80-78.85 would trigger a bigger bounce targeting 79.25.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s test of 1.3485 resistance reacted down Monday back to 1.3367. Closing under 1.3344 would trigger at least a corrective pullback targeting 1.3200. Otherwise, 1.3425 must be recovered to resume the rally, next targeting 1.3575.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s close while testing 1778.00 narrowly avoided invalidating Thursday’s signal that had put into play new highs. Sunday night’s drop under 1763.00 was recovered intraday up to 1781.00, but that was retraced back down to 1774.00 and lower. New highs all but depend upon a sharp rally beginning without further delay.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) A fresh low overnight at 35.05 was recovered intraday to test last week’s highs above 35.60. The burden of proof was on sellers, and they did not deliver. A rally must begin by Tuesday morning to avoid another sell-off attempt at new lows.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Falling stocks and rising Dollar Sunday night encouraged bonds to trend up and attack recent highs at 144-26. Stocks turned up and the Dollar firmed, but bonds kept ticking higher. The rally should at least touch 144-08, especially so long as pullbacks are contained to 143-20. Back under 143-10 would signal momentum already reversing down.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) A softer open Monday never extended down, but the balance of the session ranged under 109.35. Back under 108.00 would signal the rally had ended. It should otherwise still test 111.00.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Breaking under 2.51 Monday waited until the noon hour’s end before trending down that afternoon to 2.44. Back above 2.51 would be bullish, but there is otherwise no bullish pattern i-play.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Euro’s surge extended the week’s rally, as did Crude Oil’s fresh highs. More of the same is hardly news. Much more relevant is that these markets’ fresh highs tested significant targets/resistance intraday.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s fresh low required another low Thursday. The downleg wasn’t required to extend any lower Friday, but it did. The open gapped down to the two-week old low at 78.40-78.50 and extended down intraday to test 78.25. Any lower would target 77.45. A bounce meanwhile has room up to 78.55 without yet forming a bottom.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s open gapped up from Thursday’s close above the 1.3333 target, and quickly probed the 1.3425 target. A test of 1.3485 resistance held. Its reaction down has room to 1.3415-1.3435 without signaling that momentum has reversed down, maintaining potential to 1.3575.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s close above 1778.00-1780.00 was not followed Friday by a confirming close above 1783.50, undermining this leg’s potential to new highs at 1811.50-1825.50. The close was still testing 1778.00, so sellers did not regain control.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s breakout attempt was not confirmed Wednesday by a second consecutive higher close. So, Thursday’s consecutive breakout attempt was not likely to be confirmed Friday, either. In fact, price action ranged narrowly, optimistically, at the highs. This is not a sell signal, but it does suggest the rally’s sponsorship is waning.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday’s recovery above 142-05/142-12 was not rejected Friday. But most of the session’s price action mostly ranged narrowly back to Thursday’s high, and then eked higher to 143-04 resistance. There is still no active parameter.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) I raised the pullback limit intraday in case fresh highs touched 109.35. It was exceeded to almost 110.00, making the new pullback limit 108.00. Fulfilling the rally’s 111.00 target first would raise the pullback limit to 109.35, while also making the pattern vulnerable to a collapse if the rally does not extend sharply higher without delay.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Despite retracing enough of Thursday’s spike down to close back at 2.61, a buy signal still required closing above 2.64. But Friday’s session dropped to fresh lows testing 2.51. Despite the fresh low, the lowest buy signal remains a close above 2.64.

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Some of the overnight action requires updating.

[pay]Euro — Out of the woods, only to enter another forest… A confirmed break above 1.3333 would have put into play 1.3425. But 1.3425 was already touched overnight. And it is being probed this morning up to 1.3477. The next higher objective on a confirmed close above 1.3425 would be 1.3485 and 1.3575. But let’s not yet discount the significant resistance at 1.3333 and 1.3425. Closing today or Monday under 1.3425 would be likely also to close the same session under 1.3333.

Crude Oil — Flying a little too close to the sun… A break above the 103.00 target had been expected. But excessive optimism prevented any hesitation before its recovery triggered a new buy signal targeting 111.00. The signal has been very productive, too, extending up to 109.00 without little delay. I had noted after yesterday’s close how much room a pullback would have without reversing momentum down. Fresh highs today have raised the pullback limit up to 107.35. And that would be raised up to 107.85 if 109.35 were touched. None of which would undermine the potential for fulfilling the 111.00 target (where there is potential for a massive price collapse).

Gold — This is no time to rest on its laurels… Tuesday’s price action under 1760.00 had put into play 1778.00-1780.00, which was tested almost immediately after Wednesday’s close. Closing above it Thursday put into play new highs targeting  1811.50/1825.50. I just want to clarify that closing today above 1790.00 would further confirm. But closing under 1778.00 could reverse momentum down.

S&Ps — The uncommon denominator… While not technically part of the commodity coverage, I do want to address the perception that the Euro has “decoupled” from S&Ps. No two “coupled” markets need trade in unison without interruption. I always suggest the two-day rule for filtering out divergences and outperformance. While the Euro has accelerated the pace of its recent upleg, it is testing resistance (1.3333 and 1.3425) while S&Ps attack a narrower resistance (1369.00-1371.00). Regardless of their different trajectories upon approaching each target, reacting down in unison would confirm the two markets have not decoupled.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s intraday follow-through Thursday to Wednesday’s late surge now all but ensures probing new highs above 1800.00. And that suggests the Euro will extend its recent rally, too.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s gap up had almost qualified as “ineffectual optimism,” but still made one more lower low likely. Thursday’s gap down fulfilled the setup. Closing back above 79.00 would signal that the pullback had ended, and above 79.35 would signal momentum reversing up. Meanwhile, more fresh lows could be probed down to 78.65.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) So, the longstanding potential to 1.3333 was fulfilled, after all. It was attacked close enough to suffice two weeks ago. The drop into last week’s low was expected to bounce. But the extension this week was not required, nor was it triggered. It probed fresh highs nonetheless. Closing back under 1.3315 would signal the bounce had ended, and possibly reverse momentum down. Otherwise, a second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm a test of 1.3425 is in-play.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s closing surge had extended higher after the close and overnight. Closing above 1783.40 Thursday puts into play new highs above 1800.00 at 1811.50 and 1825.50.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s inside day resolved up Thursday by trending sharply higher to test 35.55. That was pretty aggressive price action considering Tuesday’s breakout was not confirmed by a higher close Wednesday. Now Thursday’s breakout is unlikely to be confirmed, but should touch a fresh high at 35.80 before closing negative.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Holding 142-05/142-12 resistance Wednesday did react down Thursday by gapping to within ticks of 141-18. But the balance of the session recovered to fresh highs attacking 143-00. There is no pattern indicating a bigger bounce, and no sell signal until closing back under 142-05/142-12.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The rally resumed and extended further toward its 111.00 target. Thursday’s high tested 108.00, which now allows room for a pullback down to 106.75-107.00 without the rally losing traction.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Thursday’s reaction to EIA spiked back down to 2.58 support. The balance of the session ranged around 2.61. Closing above 2.64 would signal that another round of sellers had been absorbed, and also be likely finally to trigger a more satisfying rally leg. There is otherwise no sell signal, and no other buy signal.

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