Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold tumbled significantly Tuesday. It wasn’t as deep as last Wednesday’s plunge. And if it doesn’t produce a rally within hours, another tumble may not be far behind.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s narrow ranging only further delayed the break higher from Friday’s opening gap up. Tuesday’s gap up compensated for the delay. Testing the 80.20 area is likely, and somewhat likely to be probed.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s narrow ranging only further delayed the break lower from Friday’s opening gap down. Trending through 1.3055 would target 1.3000, where very little support remains since its last attack last month produced a significant interim bounce.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Another opportunity to rally was ignored by not closing above 1708.80. The consequences this time were more substantial than avoiding the 1727.70 buy signal previously. Intraday lows fell to 1663.00 I am monitoring action at 1661.50 (which should be better tested down here) for a setup. Closing under 1661.50 could signal a new bear market underway.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Not immediately resuming the corrective bounce Tuesday made the decline likelier to extend down. In fact, fresh lows tested 32.50, and could still recover, if a recovery were in-play at Wednesday’s open.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) 140-29 support was safe from breaking lower while stocks tumbled to new lows. Tuesday’s 142-10 high retested the recent breakout point that led to last Thursday’s interim low. A pullback has room down to 141-12, but any lower would trigger a new downleg.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Although the pullback from last week’s highs did not extend down Monday, there was no recovery attempt to gain traction. Not before the pullback did extend down to retest last week’s lows under 104.85. Closing above 107.25 would put into play 111.00.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Monday’s highlight was its broad lowlight — a lack of volatility and fireworks to start the week. The first break attempted Tuesday from extended narrow ranging could be a false break, and reversed more substantially in the opposite direction.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Despite bouncing a little Sunday night, Monday’s session essentially ranged narrowly around Friday’s close. Sunday night’s fresh high was not rejected so much as its break higher was delayed.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Despite dipping a little Sunday night, Monday’s session essentially ranged narrowly around Friday’s close. Sunday night’s fresh low was not rejected so much as its break lower was delayed.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) While awaiting a corrective bounce, the 1705.00-1710.00 support was probed again Monday. Sellers were absorbed, and now a close above 1709.00 would trigger a test of 1728.00, whose recovery would have potential for extending further to 1765.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s drop extended further Monday to fresh lows testing 33.75. The corrective bounce targeting 36.00 must be resumed with almost no delay Tuesday to avoid resuming the decline.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) [~1-15 discount to Mar] Friday’s gap up did not extend any higher Monday, which instead remained within Friday’s range. Monday’s low was also supported by the upper-end of the 140-22 / 140-29 range. Breaking back under the range’s lower-end Tuesday would be likely to trend down intraday. There is otherwise no buy signal active.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The reaction down from last week’s attack on 111.00 did not extend down any further Monday. That suggests the selling was isolated to being a correction, which makes a fresh high likely.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s post-close surge Thursday was retraced overnight. The longstanding 111.00 target was met to within only 50 cents before falling back Friday to retest Wednesday’s 106.50 buy signal. Was it too much, too soon, or has the geopolitical threat passed?

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) While Friday’s gap up to 79.55 was entirely in-line with the week’s bullish pattern, it might have expended more energy than it created. As with Friday, immediate strength at Monday’s open would be credible for extending the rally further toward this leg’s target in the 81.00 area. Otherwise, pullbacks should hold 79.05 as support to avoid momentum reversing down.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s close under 1.3333 was bearish confirmation. Friday’s steep gap down to 1.3200 confirmed as much. But not trending down into the weekend makes it difficult to down out of the weekend, too. Immediate weakness at Monday’s open would next target 1.3155. Otherwise, the week would more likely begin with a corrective bounce before extending to this leg’s next target in the 1.3000 area.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s gap down quickly bottomed for the day, although it did not recover. The session was an “inside day” biased downward, which tends to resolve upward. But a close above 1727.70 is needed to trigger a corrective bounce with potential to 1765.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s gap down interrupted the corrective bounce targeting 36.10. Holding 34.50 as support suggests the bounce will resume, now attracted higher also by the gap back to Thursday’s 35.55 close.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday’s gap down to fresh lows was rejected by Friday’s gap up above Thursday’s range. The high tested the 143-00 area that was the target of Wednesday’s break lower. The gap left outstanding to Thursday’s 141-30 close still needs to be filled, and the downleg should extend to fresh lows.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s post-close surge to 110.55 was retraced Friday to 105.80. That’s back within the prior 105.50-106.50 range whose test Wednesday produced the upleg. Was the rally to 111.00 cut short? A close under 105.90 would suggest that momentum had reversed down. Closing back above 107.50 would give the rally one more chance.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Thursday’s drop back to prior lows didn’t extend down Friday. Neither was it recovered. Rather, the session’s narrow range suggests a probe of fresh lows will start out the week. Recovering to close positive from probing fresh lows intraday would launch a rally.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s wide $38 range Thursday almost paled in comparison to the size of Wednesday’s plunge. But it still qualifies as a highlight for stabilizing, and potentially allowing a significant corrective bounce.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s opening probe into negative territory quickly settled into a narrowing range around Wednesday’s close. While that’s not quite the confirmation prescribed for confirming a recovery underway, at least buyers weren’t rejected. Any immediately strength Friday would be credible for extending higher into the weekend, and then conditionally also out of the weekend.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Gapping down, probing under prior lows, and spending the entire session Thursday in negative territory was pretty pessimistic. But it was “ineffectual pessimism” for avoiding a close under the morning’s low. A probe under the morning’s low was avoided altogether, and therefore so was a recovery from fresh afternoon lows, which would have been bullish. Closing under 1.3333 is bearish, so initial weakness Friday would be credible for extending down into and out of the weekend. Initial strength at Friday’s open would more likely bounce intraday.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s close at 1705.00-1710.00 was the lowest allowed for a corrective bounce to remain possible. Despite probing sharply lower overnight to 1688.00, Thursday’s open had already recovered and extended higher to test 1726.00. Closing back under 1708.50 would renew the decline. Meanwhile a corrective bounce has potential up to 1765.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Closing above 34.50 Wednesday maintained potential to test 36.00 before resuming the decline. Thursday’s session mostly firmed back to 35.60 resistance, keeping alive the potential to test 36.00.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Although the effect of Bernanke’s testimony Wednesday already produced a devastating plunge to test 143-00, the long bond fell sharply again Thursday to 141-17. The drop’s momentum remains intact and next targeting 140-00 so long as bounces hold 142-00.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Wednesday’s bullish recovery from under 105.50 to back above 106.50 extended higher Thursday for a second consecutive session to confirm momentum reversing up. A pullback from 108.90 must close above 107.90 to maintain potential to the 111.00-111.75 target.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Thursday’s gap down was not helped by the EIA report, as price tumbled further to 2.46 and a test of January’s lows.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold giveth, and Gold taketh away… Breakouts go unconfirmed all the time, but rarely so definitively as Gold. Rather than confirm Wednesday’s breakout with a second consecutive higher close Thursday, Gold plunged, leaving no doubt that new highs aren’t coming anytime soon.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s new low did what Tuesday’s low did not. Its reaction up probed above Monday’s 78.70 high. A second consecutive higher close would confirm momentum has reversed up. Pullbacks meanwhile should hold 78.45 as support.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s recovery was not confirmed before Wednesday’s plunge. A surge overnight did probe Friday’s 1.3485 higher after Tuesday had filled the gap back to Friday’s close. But its reaction down fell under both Monday Tuesday’s lows. A second consecutive lower close under 1.3333 would confirm a new downleg underway.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Big miss. Tuesday’s gap up above 1780.00 and session-long rally to fresh highs at 1792.70 fulfilled the requirement noted at Monday’s close for resuming the rally’s potential. But failing to hold 1784.00 Wednesday — and Bernanke backing away from QE3 — plunged the market to 1704.50. Absent a second consecutive lower close Thursday, the next week or so could bounce back to 1765.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s test of the 36.70-37.35 area was likely to present difficult resistance. No kidding. Its reaction down Wednesday probed under 34.00. Closing above 34.50 maintains potential to test 36.00 before resuming the decline.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Almost any dip under Tuesday’s 143-21 low was credible for extending down to fill the gap back to Friday’s 143-00 close. Wednesday’s reaction down actually fell to 142-16 before bouncing to 143-15. But the balance of the session ranged much more narrowly around 143-00. If the drop does not resume without delay Thursday, then it should first test 143-12 or 143-18.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Wednesday’s probe under 105.50 did recover to close back above 106.50. This setup is expected to test the 111.00 target with less risk of price collapsing there. First things, first. Thursday’s pullbacks must hold 106.45 to maintain the recovery, and also close above Wednesday’s high.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Wednesday’s rally back up to 2.62 peaked a nickel short of signaling that buyers were gaining traction. That’s still possible Thursday, but anything less is not a buy signal.

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