Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Although Monday’s gap down was recovered entirely, the session avoided a second consecutive higher close that would have confirmed Friday’s breakout. Now a close above 78.90 is needed to trigger a new breakout targeting fresh highs above 80.00.

Gold Feb (GCG) Closing back under 1745.50 would have triggered a bigger dip targeting 1720.00. It was attacked to within nearly $1 after Monday’s close. A fine-tuned target would be nearer to 1718.00, which must launch a sudden recovery back above 1731.00 to avoid a bigger meltdown. Otherwise, simply closing back above 1735.50 would already signal momentum reversing up.

Silver Mar (SIH) Sideways ranging Monday helped to absorb Friday’s reaction down from having gapped up. Gapping up Tuesday above 33.00 would target 33.65 resistance. Closing above it — which is not at all assured — would target 34.50, and avoid a bigger dip.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Closing Friday above 141’18 had put into play a test of 142’22. Gapping down Sunday night back under 141’18 — and repeatedly holding tests of its resistance — allowed Monday’s open to gap down to 140’18. It was recovered entirely, re-opening the door to test 142’22, but no longer requiring it. There is also equal opportunity to retest 140’18 below.

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) Monday’s opening gap up to the 102.50 area prior high found natural resistance there that lasted throughout the day. Its reaction down filled the gap back to Friday’s close, which held as support through the close. Although the prior high’s retest was likely, and is likely ultimately to hold as resistance, Monday’s quick reaction down was a little impatient.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) The consecutive sessions of expending buying pressure without gaining traction for the effort were proved by Monday’s open gapping down to a new relative low and extending back to prior lows. There can be no immediate buy signal following this sequence.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Despite gapping down at Friday’s open, the balance of the session rallied strongly to prove Thursday’s inside day was not a delay of the break lower. Now a close above 78.75 would prove the break lower was only a delay in the rally higher.

Gold Feb (GCG) The pattern was already toppy when Friday’s open gapped up. Gapped up and tested the next higher resistance at 1763.00. Unlikely to extend higher, the balance of the session drifted lower to nearly fill the gap back to Thursday’s 1743.80 close. This buffer of optimism prevents the retracement from being bullish. Closing back under 1745.50 would trigger a bigger dip with potential down to 1720.00.

Silver Mar (SIH) Double Topping Thursday morning at 32.35-32.50 drew the line in the sand for extending the rally up to 35.50, or for not. Friday’s gap up momentarily exceeded Thursday morning’s highs up to 32.74, a little too quickly and while leaving outstanding a gap back down to Thursday’s close. The balance of the session suffered the consequences, by reversing down sharply under Thursday’s lows to 32.36. A pullback still has room down to 32.30 before sellers would gain traction.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Holding 140’02 (140’16 basis Dec) as support Thursday avoided sealing a top. That left the door open for backing-and-filling up to 141’18 or 142’22 before resuming the decline. Friday’s reaction to the employment Situation report did test 141’18 without reacting down enough to avoid also visiting 142’22..

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) Overnight strength up to 101.79 helped to confirm that Tuesday’s steep intraday slide did complete the correction. At least a retest of the 103.00 area remains likely.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) Thursday’s gap up back to prior highs did not gain traction, as proved by Friday’s dip back into the range. A close above 3.71 would be bullish, but nothing under it this soon would be.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Thursday’s session ranged relatively narrowly as it absorbed Wednesday’s intervention. Closing above 78.50 was narrowly avoided, and so was the assurance that sellers were being absorbed. Closing above 78.65 would still signal momentum reversing up.

Gold Feb (GCG) Narrow ranging around the 1750.00 objective (1744.50 basis Dec) met Wednesday prevented signaling the next higher objective in-play at 1763.00. Not for lack of trying, since a fresh high touched 1758.00, but the close held 1750.00 resistance for a second consecutive session to suggest that this week’s buyers have been absorbed.

Silver Mar (SIH) Thursday’s gap up to a fresh high at 33.35 was retraced quickly, but soon probed by a fresh high up to 33.50. That was also retraced fully, and more so, into negative territory at 32.53. Just holding above 32.30 prevents sellers from gaining traction, and keeps alive potential to recover 33.35 and extend the rally another couple of dollars.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Despite having potential to bounce before resuming the decline under 141’25, Thursday’s gap down avoided refueling sellers. So, the fresh low testing 140’16 must also extend down without delay to continue avoiding a temporary corrective bounce.

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) Wednesday’s retesot of 101.89 had opened the door to a corrective dip, which Thursday exploited down to 99.03. Its intraday recovery to close well back above 100.00 and back abover “lower prior highs” suggests the rally will now resume to fresh highs testing the 103.00 area.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) Thursday’s gap up back to prior highs was undermined by originating from Wednesday’s “inside day.” Prior highs held as resistance through the day. Wednesday’s inside day, meanwhile, held as support. The pattern is more “ineffectual  optimism” than accumulation, so no trending is yet indicated.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap Not available this Wednesday, Nov 30.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) The spike down from 79.15 on intervention immediately filled an outstanding gap below back down to 78.44. Lower lows were recovered so the gap held as support through the close. Launching Wednesday’s drop from an Tuesday’s “inside day” makes it unlikely to gain traction, and still fits the corrective dip scenario — albeit exaggerated by the intervention.

Gold Dec (GCZ) The potential to 1744.50 was fulfilled by Wednesday’s intervention. Closing any higher would put into play a test of 1757.00, which can be invalidated at this point either by closing back under 1744.50 Thursday, or at any time back under 1727.00.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Wednesday’s strength in reaction to the intervention was relatively muted compared to strength elsewhere. This undermines whether a bigger rally is getting underway, at least not before first retesting 31.40 support.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) While waiting for the drop to resume, the drop resumed. A gap down back to 141’25 probed it down to 141’07, but held its support through the day. A brief corrective bounce should then resolve down to resume the decline. Again.

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) The retest of Sunday night’s 101.89 high was fulfilled before Wednesday’s open on the intervention news. It held as resistance through the close, but wasn’t rejected. Any early strength Thursday would be credible for extending higher to also fulfill the retest of the recent high in the 103.00 area.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) Tuesday’s 61.8% retracement of Monday’s drop held natural resistance. Wednesday’s lack of follow-through confirms that buyers gained no traction for the effort.
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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Monday bounced back to 79.30-79.35 resistance — instead of either recovering it to signal the gap down was absorbed, or not yet touching it to leave its attraction above outstanding. Rather than immediately extend higher, Tuesday’s open gapped down again. The session’s “inside day” suggests the consolidation is ongoing, and not that sellers have gained traction.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Monday’s close while testing 1712.00 resistance neither extended higher nor reacted down Tuesday. A lot of buying pressure was expended just to tread water. Price did firm into late-afternoon, but a recovery cannot afford to hesitate or else 1712.00 will not let go later.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Tuesday’s gap down held 31.65-31.70 as support to range sideways throughout the day. Its intraday high peaked modestly short of filling the modestly higher gap back to Monday’s close, pessimism that is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Monday’s complete recovery from 141.25 to 144’03 expended all the buying pressure created by gapping down, without gaining any traction for the effort. Tuesday’s reaction down to 142’15 was largely recovered back up to 143’29. But buyers still gained no traction for their effort.

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) Firmer prices early Tuesday rewarded Monday’s buyers for having maintained strength after filling the gap back down to Friday’s close. Storming the British embassy in Iran caused further firming to 100.25, although notably short of touching Sunday night’s 100.89 high. Constructive pessimism, perhaps? That would be bullish from a contrarian perspective.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) Monday’s session-long slide from 3.7o down to 3.55 would have fallen off a cliff to new lows had it extended any deeper Tuesday. But the open gapped up and extended higher to retrace 61.8% of the drop back to 3.65. That’s an “inside day,” which already is not very predictive, let alone when its action doesn’t trend in one direction or the other.

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