Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap  (sorry, not available Monday November 28).

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Having met the last upleg’s 79.70 objective, the pattern became vulnerable to at least correcting down. Monday’s open gapped down considerably to 79.10 and extended intraday to 78.95. Closing back above  79.30-79.35 resistance would have signaled the pullback had ended — it was still being tested at the close. If recovered, then at least last week’s 79.75-79.85 highs would be retested. Pullbacks meanwhile must hold 79.20 support.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Monday’s $30 gap up flat-lined throughout the day, and finished the day testing 1712.00 support. If not actually recovered, then another downdraft to 1686.00 is likely. But almost any aggressive strength early Tuesday would help to confirm that 1712.00 was recovered, and that 1744.00 is in-play.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Monday’s gap up from retesting the 31.00 area stopped pessimistically short of filling nearby gaps back up to 32.45 or 32.85, suggesting their attractions above will help to resume the rally Tuesday or Wednesday to fresh highs.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Monday’s 2-point gap down to 142’00 bounced sharply off of 141’25 support, whose break two weeks ago would have triggered a new downleg. Its support this time launched a rally that retraced the entire gap down, filling the gap back to Friday’s close, and probably expending all the buying pressure that could have extended the recovery Tuesday had it been left outstanding overnight.

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) Despite surging at one point overnight up to 100.89, Monday’s regular session traded back under 98.00. That’s not necessarily bearish since the gap back to Friday’s 97.55 close was filled, and held as support through the close. It can be tested once more intraday without sellers gaining traction. Meanwhile, closing above 100.00 would target a retest of the recent ~103.00 highs.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) Monday’s session-long slide from 3.70 down to 3.55 retraced all gains since last Monday afternoon’s surge. Closing back above 3.60 Monday would signal the drop had been absorbed, putting fresh highs into play targeting 3.75. A second consecutive close under 3.60 would all but ensure probing new lows under 3.45.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Friday fulfilled the leg’s 79.40 minimum objective. It wasn’t rejected, but the session ended while still in the process of testing it. Currencies is a market that tends to duplicate Friday’s action Monday morning, so an immediate reversal down is unlikely. But a negative close following fresh highs would be credible for launching a downleg.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Friday’s gap down back to Wednesday’s 1677.00 low was still being attacked into the close, after filling the gap back up to Wednesday’s 1697.00 close. Back under 1677.00 would resume the decline, next targeting 1645.00.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Friday’s gap down to 31.00 ultimately held through the close, as it needed to for maintaining its bottoming potential. But any rally must begin by first closing back above 31.40.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) The corrective rally’s highest calculable objective at 145’14 was met Wednesday. At least its resistance is confirmed by Friday’s gap down to 144’20 that then slid intraday to 143’24. But that does not yet reverse momentum down, or prevent retesting the 145’14 area to form a bigger top first. Closing under 143’12 Monday would be bearish.

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) Friday’s sideways ranging was itself neither bullish nor bearish. But the burden of proof was on sellers to resume the decline, which they did not do, which is more bullish than bearish. Closing above 98.30 would be credible for launching a rally to at least retest the 102.50-103.00.

Natural Gas Dec (NGZ) Gapping up Friday only to range narrowly was similar in principle to Monday and Wednesday’s singular intraday surges. A very late surge to fresh highs Friday finally broke that mold to officially close above 3.48. This market tends to duplicate Friday’s action on Monday mornings, so the 3.60 may be met quickly.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Tuesday’s relatively narrow ranging and almost inside day resolved up sharply overnight, gapping up Wednesday above 78.50-78.70 prior highs to 79.00 and extending higher to 79.40. This leg should visit 79.70, but a second consecutive higher close would target 80.90.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Wednesday’s pullback room down to 1686.30 was probed down to 1677.00 before recovering to retest 1700.00 resistance. Closing above 1708.00 and 1715.00 would signal and confirm a bigger rally leg underway targeting 1745.00. There is otherwise no active pattern, and pullbacks still have room down to 1686.30.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Wednesday’s pullback room down to 31.40 was probed down to 31.22 before recovering back above 32.00 Closing above 32.30 would signal a bigger bounce underway initially targeting 33.95. Otherwise, 31.40 must still hold pullbacks to avoid a larger downleg.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Tuesday’s close above 143’04 extended sharply higher Wednesday to 145’14 in a flight-to-quality fueled by a falling Euro. There is no higher calculable resistance in the context of a bounce. Closing above 145’14 would target fresh highs up to 148’00. But there is plenty of room for a pullback without sellers yet gaining traction.

Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) Wednesday’s gap down under Tuesday’s low jeopardized its breakout. It certainly wasn’t confirmed by a second consecutive higher close. But a gap was left outstanding back to Tuesday’s 98.12 close to help attract price higher. There is otherwise no active signal.

Natural Gas Dec (NGZ) Gapping down only slightly Wednesday did not extend lower on the EIA report. Or after. The noon hour did spike up to fresh highs at 3.48 to almost confirm Monday’s mid-day spike up. An higher would target 3.60, so long as pullbacks meanwhile were to hold 3.41 as support.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Tuesday was essentially an inside day, not much different from the past week’s sideways ranging, and not very predictive.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Bounce potential to 1700.00 was fulfilled Tuesday by gapping up and extending higher to 1706.40. A pullback has room down to 1686.30 before resuming the decline.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Monday’s drop fulfilled the requirement to fill the gap back to Thursday’s 31.40 gap and its likely test of Thursday’s ~31.00 low. Tuesday’s gap up to 31.48 extended sharply higher intraday to 33.04, behaving appropriately for the expected rotation out of Gold. A pullback has room down to 31.40 before extending the recovery.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Tuesday’s outside day probed either end of Monday’s relatively narrow 143’11-143’30 range. Ending the day while probing above 144’00 was not bearish, but neither does it qualify as a buy signal.

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) Gapping up Tuesday undermined whether the three-day drop preceding it was only a correction of the rally. Then an intraday dip eventually filled the gap up, neutralizing its attraction below, so long as its 96.95 low were to hold. Closing above 99.30 would confirm a new rally leg underway.

Natural Gas Dec (NGZ) Tuesday’s narrow sideways range did not reject Monday’s single mid-day surge. But the burden of proof is on buyers to extend it, and not on sellers to reverse it. This week’s EIA report comes one day early on Wednesday, and may resolve the situation.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Monday’s open gapped up to test Thursday’s 78.57 prior high, which held as resistance through the close despite having probed briefly higher. Now any delay in extending above 78.57 at an accelerated pace would be bearish.

Gold Dec (GCZ) The next lower pullback objective at 1700.00 was tested before Monday’s open, then broken later on the way down to 1667.00. Now 1659.00-1660.00‘s test is likely until recovering 1700.00.

Silver Dec (SIZ) The requirement to fill the gap back to Thursday’s 31.40 close was fulfilled Sunday night. Its likelihood also to retest the 31.00 low was fulfilled overnight. And again intraday down to 30.65 after an interim bounce held 31.40. To confirm the selling was absorbed, the session closed with a rally above 31.60 — which also helps to confirm the expected outperformance vs. Gold.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Friday’s drop probed under 142’16 whose break through the close would have triggered a downleg. Monday’s reaction gapped up to last week’s 143’21 high and ranged around it through the day without closing above it, so buyers gained no traction. Closing back under 142’16 would again signal momentum reversing down.

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) Extending the correction down further Monday was in-line with completing a correction, instead of rallying prematurely into a Double Top. A bounce has room up to 97.70 and 98.30 before signaling a new rally leg is underway.

Natural Gas Dec (NGZ) Remaining under pressure through Monday morning fulfilled the expected follow-through from Friday’s weakness, although that pressure did not produce a new low. A steep surge into the noon hour was the session’s only strength, but it would be bullish if followed by closing Tuesday above 3.44.

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