Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Tuesday’s confirmation to Monday’s breakout was lacking, as discussed during each day’s Market Wrap. That didn’t prevent probing higher highs, but it always left the pattern vulnerable to a correction that could only be delayed. Friday’s open finally fulfilled it by gapping down sharply, back to the three prior days’ lows. The balance of the session trended up gently, which may have been premature to resume the rally.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Friday’s gap up gained no traction as the session ranged sideways in positive territory, except for filling the gap back to Thursday’s close. This was not accumulation, and fresh lows would likely test 1700.00.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Enough of Thursday’s outsized break lower was rejected by the open gapping up back above 31.75. A recovery didn’t gain traction despite extending up to 32.60, but a dip that fills the gap back down to Thursday’s 31.40 close could hold — or could be recovered after retesting Thursday’s 31.00 low.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Having probed 143’04 Thursday, Friday was free to launch a new downleg. Its open gapped down back under 143’04, but the session only ranged narrowly around 142’16. Now closing under 141’24 would signal a new downleg underway.

Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) Wednesday’s test of 102.89 was the rally’s highest calculable objective if it were going to resolve normally, at least correcting down. Thursday’s sharp break lower confirmed this by falling down to 98.34, and now Friday’s 96.64 lower low has, too. The pattern is vulnerable to one more dip simply as a correction, so long as 98.25 and 98.40 hold as resistance. Recovering them first would make the next downleg likely to be very damaging.

Natural Gas Dec (NGZ) Thursday’s “ineffectual optimism” resolved appropriately, if not more aggressively than needed. Friday’s open slid back through Wednesday’s prior low to end the week probing fresh lows. This market tends to duplicate Friday’s action on Monday mornings, which would undermine any immediate rally effort. But new lows that reverse up Monday afternoon to close above Wednesday’s 3.35 close would be bullish.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Thursday’s gap up tested Wednesday’s highs and avoided negative territory under Wednesday’s lows. The afternoon surged above Wednesday’s highs and held the new highs through the close. The lack of a corrective pullback is still a concern, but each session should continue to be immune so long as the open isn’t already in decline.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Wednesday’s “ineffectual pessimism” was never triggered by any strength Thursday. Instead, an overnight reversal extended through Wednesday’s lows to gap down under 1755.00, extending down intraday to 1711.00. No buy signal will generate without first recovering 1755.00 on a closing basis.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Although Wednesday’s close was still testing its 34.00 support, Thursday’s open gapped down under Wednesday’s low, under 33.30 and trended down to 31.00. Immediately recovering 33.30 would allow a reversal to gain traction for new highs — which still seem prematurely avoided. The trend otherwise is down.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Thursday’s probe above 143’04 was made likely by Wednesday’s inside day. Wednesday’s inside day also made likely a sudden and substantial reversal down once the probe had ended. The nearest sell signal at this early stage is a close back under 142’16.

Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) Thursday’s steep drop confirmed that Wednesday’s 102.89 high and the 103.37 overnight high had fulfilled the highest calculable objective of 102.35 without gaining traction, which would have extended the recent rally exponentially higher. Dropping to almost 98.25 almost breaks the rally’s back, so long as bounces now hold 99.85.

Natural Gas Dec (NGZ) Perhaps rotation out of Crude helped to fuel Nat Gas gapping up Thursday. But not to a significant degree, holding under prior sessions lows. A spike up on the EIA report was retraced entirely back to post-open lows. Gapping up, probing prior highs and spending the entire session in positive territory is all optimistic. But failing to gain traction is “ineffectual optimism” making fresh lows likely. That would be the first opportunity to end this new downleg.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Wednesday’s open gapped up above prior highs. This was in spite of Tuesday’s test of prior highs having held. And this was in spite of Tuesday’s gap up not maintaining any of its post-open gains. None of which was bearish, but all of which suggested a corrective dip would be healthy. Extending higher first, aggressively, was not. All intraday gains were retraced back down to Tuesday’s close. Having filled its gap, there is no unfinished business below. And having gapped open at or under prior highs instead of above them, there is no unfinished business above.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Pullbacks had room down to 1755.00 while maintaining potential to re-probe 1800.00. Wednesday’s open gapped  down and extended down sharply to briefly test 1755.00, but all post-open losses were recovered. Gapping down to 1774.50, testing a pullback limit and spending the entire session in negative territory is pessimism. A lot of it. Retracing back to 1774.50 makes that pessimism “ineffectual.” Almost any initial strength Thursday would be credible for launching the leg that does probe 1800.00. Closing under Wednesday’s low would remove any attraction back up to 1800.00.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Wednesday’s gap down tested 34.00 support and spent the entire session in negative territory. But its pessimism was “ineffectual pessimism” for not closing under 34.00 support (or for still testing it at the close). Any initial weakness Thursday would be credible for extending higher, presumably to probe above 35.50. Closing under Wednesday’s 33.57 low would remove any attraction back up to 35.50.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Wednesday’s inside day suggests that filling the outstanding gap at 142’16 Tuesday does not preclude probing 143’04. But a probe above 143’04 would still be unusually vulnerable to reacting down sharply almost immediately, or else probably not at all.

Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) The recovery from Tuesday’s “ineffectual pessimism” extended sharply higher Thursday, through the rally’s 100.00-101.00 target area to 120.89. Just testing 102.40 fulfills the highest calculable target for this leg prior to reversing down or simply correcting. Any higher would suggest a much more substantial rally underway.

Natural Gas Dec (NGZ) Wednesday’s session-long decline extended down to new lows, which Tuesday’s pattern all but required. There is no bottoming pattern forming.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Monday’s recovery needed a second consecutive higher close Tuesday to confirm the prior pullback had ended, and that the rally had resumed. Tuesday’s open gapped up and the session trended higher to probe above last week’s highs up to 78.31. So long as 77.80-77.90 holds a support, 78.90-79.05 would be targeted next.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Tuesday’s session fluctuated from positive territory to negative and back again. Neither buyers nor sellers gained traction. So, Monday’s hesitation to probe above 1800.00 was not validated. Its probe is not required, but it is not unlikely — only likely to be probed as noise while retesting prior highs to form a Double Top.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Despite initially firming, Tuesday’s gap up was retraced to fill the gap back down to Monday’s close. The gap held as support, and the balance of the session firmed again. The entire session developed in positive territory, without probing a prior high — and, therefore, being rejected from above a prior high. A break above 35.50 remains likely.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Despite gapping up and initially firming, Tuesday’s session closed negative. Meanwhile, intraday highs filled the gap back up to 142’16 that could serve by proxy in place of actually probing the 143’04 prior highs. Closing under 140’16 would signal a new downleg underway, targeting 137’00 and lower.

Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) Monday’s “ineffectual pessimism” was recovered by Tuesday’s probe of new highs, nearing the 100.00-101.00 objective. But now pullbacks have much less room to dip without sellers gaining traction. Closing under 98.80 would suggest the rally had ended already.

Natural Gas Dec (NGZ) Departing from the pattern of the prior two sessions, Tuesday’s intraday trending to new lows did not gap down. This makes Tuesday’s new lows that much likelier to extend down further, at least eventually. So, a counter-trend bounce that begins Wednesday would be doomed to failure.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Sunday night’s gap down soon reversed up sharply, closing above 77.35 to resume the rally. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday would confirm.

Gold Dec (GCZ) The recovery stopped short of probing 1800.00, let alone touching it, but not by much. If 1800.00 were probed again before launching a new downleg, then it would be done by noise. There is otherwise room back down to 1755.00.

Silver Dec (SIZ) The 61.8% retracement range remains intact to prevent sellers from gaining traction. Closing under Monday’s low Tuesday would start to suggest a temporary downleg may appear before probing fresh highs above 35.50, which otherwise remain in-play.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Sunday night’s probing under 140’16 was recovered as stocks began reversing down overnight. A probe above 143’04 remains likely, although the gap back to 142’16 may end the bounce upon being filled.

Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) Friday’s new recovery highs were retraced entirely Monday by gapping down and spending the entire session in negative territory. But it was “ineffectual pessimism” since it did not gain traction, ending the day while still testing Friday’s lows as support.

Natural Gas Dec (NGZ) Friday’s action was duplicated on Mondays, as this market tends to do. Similar to Friday, Monday’s open gapped down and trended further to new lows.

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