Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Thursday’s inside day had made Friday likely to dip for refueling buyers. That proved to be an understatement as the dip extended under its 77.35 objective to nearly touch 76.85. It’s just an extension of the same pattern, and still a correction, so long as 77.35 is recovered next and so long as an aggressive rally emerges upon 77.35‘s recovery.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Thursday’s extra-deep pullback to 1736.60 held a test of “lower prior highs” and filled an outstanding gap. That allowed the weakness to neutralize attractions below, without sellers gaining traction — 1800.00 was likely to be probed again. Overnight strength extended higher throughout Friday to test 1791.00. The retest of 1800.00 remains in-play so long as pullbacks now hold 1781.50.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Friday’s rally recovered back up to Wednesday’s highs, starting to outperform Gold. Silver meanwhile has formed an Ascending Triangle targeting 37.30 so long as 34.10 now holds as support.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) While retesting 143’04 did react down Thursday, the reaction’s sponsorship proved incapable of launching a new downleg, and held upon filling Tuesday’s outstanding gap below. But it also chipped away at support that laid the groundwork for later sellers. Those later sellers tend to arrive from the same point that launched the first effort — if not from higher, if at all — so, Friday’s probes under Thursday’s low were probably premature. A close under 140’16 would break sharply downward if valid.

Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) Friday’s fresh highs now all but ensure visiting 100.50-101.00. Frankly, the second extension of this otherwise corrective bounce is suggesting the market sensing something substantial still to come. If a test of 100.50-101.00 isn’t rejected forcibly, then the alternative pattern would likely surge sharply higher — as if something substantial had arrived.

Natural Gas Dec (NGZ) Gapping down to new lows Friday fulfilled the setup created through Thursday — greeting Friday at the range’s lows. Gapping up Monday above 3.63 would form an Island Reversal targeting 3.76-3.79, but would still require a retest of Friday’s 3.57 low. The trend otherwise remains down.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Inside day on Thursday, instead of a second consecutive higher close that would have confirmed Wednesday’s breakout. Extending higher without delay would now be suspicious, so a pullback Friday is likelier.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Exaggerated its pullback Thursday, but that doesn’t alter whether it is only a pullback. Intraday lows filled an outstanding gap and tested lower prior highs, recovering all through the close. Another probe above 1800.00 remains likely before topping.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Thursday’s substantial pullback included a retest of overnight lows that had already reacted up sharply. There is no unfinished business below, and now only excessive pessimism at its recent peak that reversed down prior to actually probing the prior high.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) The gap back to Tuesday’s close was filled and held Thursday. But its reaction up gained no traction, while support was chipped away. Unless sellers were productive immediately Friday, then a retest of 143’04 is likelier to come next. Regardless, there is no more predictability within this range until the next trending effort were to begin. (Cash markets closed Friday for Veteran’s Day holiday.)

Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) Fresh highs Thursday met the next extended Fibonacci target of the same consolidation pattern (that was resisted by 94.00). Each prior target has produced a reaction down into the range. A pullback still has room down to 93.75 before closing lower to confirm a new downleg is underway.

Natural Gas Dec (NGZ) Greeting the week’s last session from at or under the range’s lows must produce a steeply productive short-squeeze to avoid trending down into next week.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Ongoing testing of 76.80-77.00, coupled with Tuesday’s “ineffectual pessimism,” was finally rewarded by surging sharply higher Wednesday. The next objective is 78.95-79.20 so long as a higher close Thursday were to confirm Wednesday’s breakout.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Despite fulfilling the rally’s next objective by probing above 1800.00 Tuesday, immediate weakness was unlikely to gain traction for a new downleg. Some sort of retest of the week’s highs above 1805.00 is likely.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Wednesday’s reaction down was excessive, especially following Tuesday’s excessive pessimism that prevented even probing the prior high after only touching it. A more substantial probe above 35.50 remains likely.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Stock market weakness proved both that Tuesday’s last round of selling was impatient, and also that 143’04 overnight highs would be retested. Now the gap back to Tuesday’s 140’25 close remains open, and filling it would attract price down.

Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) Initial weakness Wednesday down to 94.50 support fell more than $2. EIA triggered a surge to fresh highs at 97.84, but it was retraced entirely back into negative territory. A close under 93.75 is still needed to trigger a new downleg.

Natural Gas Dec (NGZ) Wednesday’s open gapped down, and the session didn’t even begin to exploit Tuesday’s recovery from the lows. So long as sellers don’t gain traction for their efforts, there is still potential to launch a new rally leg.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) “Ineffectual pessimism”? The open gapped down and the entire session ranged in negative territory, but prior lows held tests as support. And the critical 76.80-77.00 area still did not break lower. Fresh strength above 77.40 would be credible for extending higher, but would also require a relatively tight trailing stop. Meanwhile, there is potential for a 1-2 day probe lower.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Monday’s rally extended into Tuesday, finally probing 1800.00. This second consecutive higher close would normally confirm a breakout, except for the two-day sequence preceding it that did not confirm Thursday’s breakout. An immediate reversal down is unlikely to gain traction without first absorbing a bounce off of 1778.00. If so, watch Silver for it outperforming from rotation into it, to help predict broader topping.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Tuesday’s fresh highs filled the high’s gap while also retesting the rally’s 35.50 target. This reserved optimism makes more fresh highs likelier first, than to reverse down yet sustainably. Watch for Gold to underperform simultaneously from rotation out of it, to help predict broader topping.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Gapping down nearly 1 point Tuesday, then bouncing to fill the gap back to Monday’s close, would have cleared the way for a deeper downleg to follow Wednesday. But Tuesday afternoon already fell back to fresh session lows, suggesting that impatient selling had cleared the way for one more bounce. Closing negative Wednesday and under 140’16 would make 143’04‘s test unlikely anytime soon.

Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) The probing above 94.00 extended higher again Tuesday, testing 96.67 resistance. Closing under 93.75 would signal momentum reversing down.

Natural Gas Dec (NGZ) Monday’s opening gap down was retested after a bounce back above prior highs. Tuesday afternoon recovered back to fresh session highs. This could be the basis for a rally, attracted higher first to fill the gap back to Friday’s 3.78. Closing above 3.85 would signal momentum reversing up.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Inside day, no new info.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Friday’s “ineffectual pessimism” was likely to resolve up. The gap up and intraday trending to attack 1800.00 makes its probe likely. This has been the next higher objective, so weakness there could trigger a more sizable decline.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Further strength Monday stopped short of filling the gap back to its 35.50 target test, which should be probed intraday by fresh highs.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Monday’s firming keeps alive potential for retesting last week’s 143’04 overnight highs.

Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) Testing of 94.00 resistance is probing fresh highs with potential up to 96.65 before reversing down. Any higher would gain traction to become a new upleg. Closing back under 93.75 would signal the trend had reversed down already.

Natural Gas Dec (NGZ) Monday’s gap down to new relative lows confirms the prior two sessions’ complex pattern. But the gap down makes a recovery difficulty if not also unlikely.

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