Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Is the weight over? Thursday’s extra dip(s)  still held 76.80-77.00 support. And that kept alive potential to begin another upleg. Friday’s session traded exclusively in positive territory, attacking Thursday’s highs, but has yet to fulfill the definition of being another upleg.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Almost out of breath. Almost. As suspected, Friday did not confirm Thursday’s premature breakout with a second consecutive higher close. The entire session ranged sideways in negative territory. Still, sellers did not gain traction, making Monday likely to probe fresh highs above 1768.00.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Catch-up. A relatively narrow sideways range Friday continued to tread water while Gold attracted most attention. Gapping down and trading negative all day formed “ineffectual pessimism” likely to resolve up, probably to probe the prior week’s test of the rally’s 35.50 target.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Not yet. Weakness into and out of Friday’s Employment Situation report did not extend down through the close, making a retest of Wednesday night’s 143’04 highs likely.

Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) Sitting this one out. The test of the range’s 94.00 upper-end was not rejected Friday. Closing under 92.45 would still trigger a downleg. Meanwhile, more fresh highs are likely.

Natural Gas Dec (NGZ) Under the radar. Friday’s session returned Thursday’s recovery, but once again avoided closing at fresh lows to trigger a new downleg. New lows under 3.72 that recover to close above 3.75 or in positive territory above 3.78 would be bullish. No other pattern is being tracked.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) At least it’s still support. Wednesday’s bounce off of 76.80-77.00 extended higher initially overnight up to 77.68. But headlines erased it all by Thursday’s open. An intraday bounce up to 77.58 was reversed down entirely, again. The critical 76.80-77.00 area was still being tested into the close, which is not predictive, and keeps alive potential for extending the rally substantially.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Excessive optimsim. Despite recovering 1724.00 so quickly Wednesday while also filling a gap above and neutralizing its attraction, an overnight rally recovered to new relative highs. The balance of the session drifted higher to 1768.00. A second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm the breakout. Otherwise, it is vulnerable to reversing down.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Marcia, Marcia, Marcia. Thursday’s open gapped up grudgingly above Wednesday’s high to 34.90, but was reversed down to fill the gap back to Wednesday’s ~34.00 close as Gold got all the attention. The balance of Thursday’s session ranged back up to 34.60 resistance, whose recovery Tuesday would have triggered a new rally leg. Now, it is too late.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Back to business. And business is down. Wednesday night’s rally to new recovery highs disappeared before the open. So did any hint of optimism, as Thursday’s open gapped down and probed fresh lows. If the recovery was only a detour in the bigger drop triggered last week, then it is now positioned to react very poorly to Friday’s Employment Situation report.

Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) The weighting game. Avoiding a close under 90.75 made the topping pattern likely to probe highs above 94.00. Thursday’s gap up to 94.00 was retraced just enough to fill the gap back down to Wednesday’s 92.55 close. Fresh highs still ended the day testing 94.00. Closing under 92.55 would start to seal a top.

Natural Gas Dec (NGZ) Nothing goes straight down. Thursday’s open gapped up and extended higher to test resistance levels. But the market was up to its old behaviors of exhibiting extreme sentiment ahead of EIA that reliably proved contrary. The reaction down did not gain new traction, so perhaps the return of this old behavior can also mean that buyers are returning.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Getting out of quicksand. Wednesday’s open gapped down to probe into 76.80-77.00 support, then bounced to almost fill the gap back to Tuesday’s 77.47 close. Having avoided closing back under 76.80-77.00 for two consecutive sessions, the rally is substantially likely to extend higher.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Too fast for its own good. Retesting 1724.00 too quickly was likely to hold resistance and react down. Wednesday’s open tested 1724.00, extended higher to fill the gap back to Friday’s 1744.30 close, then reversed back down to test 1724.00 as support.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Strength in (limited) weakness. Wednesday’s open gapped up to Tuesday’s 33.66 high, which Tuesday afternoon noticeably avoided retesting. Higher highs intraday nearly filled the gap back to Friday’s 34.45 close. Closing back under 34.20 then signaled that the bounce gained no traction.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Weak, but so what. Tuesday’s lack of intraday gain was vulnerable to a pullback. Wednesday’s open gapped down and probed fresh lows down to 140’24. But it is too soon to signal momentum reversing back down, and the gap back to Tuesday’s close was filled.

Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) Reloading sellers. Closing back above 90.75 Tuesday signaled that the topping pattern was ongoing. Wednesday’s bounce to 93.79 stopped short of probing fresh highs above 94.20, which might be necessary before the top is sealed.

Natural Gas Dec (NGZ) Don’t bother. Didn’t. No surprise by Wednesday extending Tuesday’s drop, after Monday had failed to confirm Friday’s buying. Still monitoring.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Tipping point. Monday’s gap up was followed by another Tuesday. It extended only slightly higher before dipping to fresh session lows. The 76.80-77.00 resistance was recovered, so not closing back under it Wednesday would confirm a bottom is in. Closing under it would put into play a retest of last week’s lows.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Quick on the draw. Rather than holding 1724.00 as support for a second consecutive session, another plunge tested 1681.00. The balance of the morning rallied to 1714.00, and the afternoon improved up to 1718.00. Retesting 1724.00 too soon, e.g. Wednesday, would be likely to react down sharply. Delaying its retest would help its recovery this week or next to extend to fresh highs above 1800.00.

Silver Dec (SIZ) A bigger beat. Monday’s pullback to 34.20 gave way to sharply lower lows at 32.10. The morning’s bounce to 33.65 was never recovered during the afternoon dip to 32.50. Immediately recovering above 33.65 would suggest Tuesday’s drop was an anomaly. Otherwise, fresh lows are likely.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Correction on steroids. The 139’00 level did not hold for a second consecutive day, to say the least. It was recovered up to 142’23. That was not much improvement from the open’s gap up, making a dip down to 140’06 likely, regardless of its resolution.

Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) No news is eventually good news. There wasn’t necessarily a new catalyst to trigger a drop, other than continued Dollar strength. So Tuesday’s drop under 90.75 was recovered through the close to avoid a new downleg. The pattern is still considered to be topping, but not yet topped.

Natural Gas Dec (NGZ) Missed opportunity. Although Monday’s session did not extend Friday’s rally, its inside day did recover from gapping down. A fresh high above 3.95 would have gotten a benefit of the doubt for extending higher, but its test overnight held and sent price down sharply Tuesday. There is no compelling pattern active.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Easy come… and hard come, too. Sunday night’s rally on Yen intervention developed into a gap up at Wednesday’s lows. Wednesday’s lows had preceded Thursday’s gap down and session-long slide. Its recovery could marginalize the interim selling. Holding its test would simply refuel sellers. Its test wasn’t rejected through Monday’s close, and the gap back to Wednesday’s close was flirted with pessimistically. Immediate follow-through Tuesday would be credible for launching a significant rally, but almost any delay could be very bearish near-term.

Gold Dec (GCZ) The “deer in headlights” pattern. Lower lows Monday followed Friday’s “ineffectual pessimism” to offer one more opportunity for reversing the trend down. Its session-long test of 1724.00 held as support, while forming another session of “ineffectual pessimism”. Holding for a second session would make a probe above 1800.00 likely.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Holding its ground. Monday’s gap down finally tested a 61.8% retracement limit at 34.20. Holding it for a second consecutive session would prevent the drop from gaining traction. Closing above 34.60 would reinstate the rally, its next objective being 36.70-37.30.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) It’s a stretch. Despite Friday’s highs having held tests of the 136’20 and 137’00 corrective bounce limits, Sunday night’s rally on Yen intervention enabled Monday to gap up above Friday’s highs. This made the gap likely to be filled back up to Wednesday’s 138’26 close, and probably also a test of the original 139’00 sell signal. All of which happened through Monday’s close. But it did not allow for the post-close probe higher to 139’27, which can only be dismissed by reversing down through Tuesday’s close (if not already overnight).

Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) Waiting for… something. Monday’s session ignored wild, wide-ranging days among almost all other markets. This further suggests that its rally has peaked, and its reversal down is waiting only for some catalyst.

Natural Gas Dec (NGZ) Keeping hope alive. Friday’s rally needed the confirmation of extending higher Monday, too. The open’s gap down suggested not, but a recovery into the close erased the session’s loss. Fresh highs above 3.95 would get a benefit of the doubt for extending higher.

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