Daily Spot

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Jun (GCM) Signs of a top, room for a bounce. Monday’s post-close plunge down to 1534.80 didn’t extend down overnight. In fact, its retest Tuesday morning produced a bounce that almost touched the 1551.40 overnight highs. But Tuesday’s post-close action fell to fresh lows at 1527.10.

Wednesday’s open can make it obvious this is a significant low by rallying sharply without delay – probably without touching the overnight low. Otherwise, the only other bottoming setup would recover to close above 1527.10 after probing 1525.00 support intraday.

A corrective bounce would have potential to 1557.00-1560.00. Closing above 1566.00-1569.00 would no longer be corrective, and at least target new highs. Not bottoming Wednesday would put into play 1508.00.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Trying to exploit weak, weak sellers. Tuesday’s gap up above 73.25-73.30 served by proxy as if Monday’s Pivot Reversal had recovered more than just positive territory. That didn’t prevent an intraday dip back under Friday’s close to test Thursday’s 73.00 low. But the close still recovered 73.25-73.30. Now a fresh high above 73.50 – preferably without delay at Wednesday’s open – would signal a new upleg underway. Delaying a rally would be vulnerable to new trend lows under 72.90.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Strong start avoided a weak finish. Extending the rally any further above 122’28 depended upon accelerating its pace aggressively. Tuesday’s gap up was an appropriate method. But its gap up extended only slight higher to test 123’04. A dip back into Monday’s range was recovered to retest the open, without extending higher. The setup is “ineffectual optimism,” and not extending higher aggressively at Wednesday’s open would otherwise reverse down sharply.

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) The biggest reaction down, yet. Tuesday’s open gapped down to test 112.40, whose break would signal that the bounce had ended. The ranging persisted until a late-afternoon plunge down to 110.30. More important was closing under 111.65, which signals a new downleg underway, so long as 112.45 isn’t recovered on a closing basis.

Natural Gas Jun (NGM) The pause that should have refreshed by now. Tuesday’s narrow range repeated Monday’s behavior. It was bullish Monday to have avoided participating in other negative reactions. Now it is bordering on overkill. One more session without resuming the rally to 4.80 would be bearish.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Sellers may have lost more than steam. Friday’s session didn’t extend the trend below its gap down, so neither did Monday’s, since Mondays tend to mimic Friday’s behavior. In fact, the session formed a Pivot Reversal by gapping up, reversing down to a new trend low, and then recovering to close back in positive territory. Closing above the morning’s high would have been more reliable. Still, sellers have lost a lot of traction, and recovering 73.25-73.35 would be very bullish.

Gold Jun (GCM) Losing its glitter. Sunday night’s gap up and new high at 1577.40 was reversed $37 on the overnight news. But the plunge was still recovered to retest the gap’s 1527.20 opening print. Post-close action plunged to attack 1540.00. Closing under 1557.00 would have been bearish, but it was still being tested at the pit close. So far, that weakness is only overnight. A second consecutive lower close would confirm a downleg underway targeting 1508.00.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Eking higher is no longer an option. Fresh highs Monday extended to maintain a close above 122’18. Closing above 122’28 would target 124’00 and 125’06. But the upleg’s character above 122’28 should become very aggressive and steep if valid. Closing under 121’30-122’02 would invalidate the uptrend, but not if the same session had gapped down.

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Another fresh, distributive high. Sunday night’s drop to 110.82 reacted up sharply to probe new highs at 114.83. The close settled back down to test the two prior highs around 113.50. Closing under 112.40 would signal momentum reversing down for a new downleg.

Natural Gas Jun (NGM) Didn’t play while the cats were away. Not much reaction to Sunday night’s news. But not much retracement, either. That keeps the 4.80 target intact, so long as 4.62 holds as support.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Another day, another new low. Only a gap up Friday would have reversed momentum up. It wasn’t even attempted. Consequently, no new longs were trapped to fuel sellers. But Friday’s gap down was retested after a bounce back up into Thursday’s range, so there is no unfinished business below. Closing above Friday’s high, preferably after probing Friday’s low first, would form a bottom. The trend otherwise remains down.

Gold Jun (GCM) Bubble quality blow-off. The $30-40 rally extended substantially Friday to attack 1570.00, obviously having no connection with the dollar whose hesitation to extend down wasn’t shared. Maintaining the momentum of this leg of the rally off of Tuesday’s relatively shallow pullback cannot tolerate any dissent. The base was not solid, and its low left unfinished business below. When the trend ends it will end violently.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Inching into a rally? Friday ended positive, still testing the open’s 122’12 gap up. It was not so much a rejection of the highs, nor was it a buy signal. But it doesn’t reject any buy signal and it doesn’t trigger a sell signal. Absent obvious and immediate selling at Monday’s open, the bounce may yet firm up to 122’18. Closing under 121’12 would signal momentum reversing down, confirmed under 120’25.

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Hesitant sellers, and you know what that means. Thursday’s dip to 111.65 chipped away at its support without triggering a sell signal. The range’s 113.00 upper-end was probed Friday. It’s still not a breakout, as each higher close is still within a prior intraday high. Rather, the pattern is distributive. Big money is selling into the hype. Timing a reversal may require trapping buyers with a failed surge. And meanwhile the retest could extend up to 115.30 and perhaps 118.50.

Natural Gas Jun (NGM) Earning its benefit of the doubt. The rally extended through 4.62 to 4.70, putting into play 4.80 so long as 4.62 holds as support. No reversal down would be signaled without first closing under 4.55.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Retesting the rally’s target. Wednesday’s drop had failed to confirm Tuesday’s breakout. It also reacted down from Tuesday’s test of the 122’02 target. But the gap back up to Wednesday’s open needed to be filled, and Thursday’s rally filled it. In fact, fresh highs were probed up to 122’10.

Now Thursday’s open has created a gap back down to Wednesday’s 121’12 close. It should be filled, especially since Thursday’s intraday fresh highs did not produce a new high close. Any initial weakness would be credible for extending down to test 120’25 support, whose break on a closing basis would trigger a new downleg.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) FWIW, Ben doesn’t favor this action. Forming all of a bottoming pattern, without actually triggering it at Wednesday’s close, confirmed the decline’s momentum remained intact. Thursday’s open gapped down to a new low and probed lower lows. But the close recovered back to the open’s 74.42 gap. Thursday’s range would form an Island if Friday’s open were to gap above Thursday afternoon’s 73.70-73.85 lows. Otherwise, the trend’s momentum remains intact.

Gold Jun (GCM) Back to business. Thursday’s s gap up extended to test 1539.00, and extended Wednesday’s strong reaction to Bernanke’s speech. After abbreviating its pullback Tuesday, the resumed rally’s steepness suggests that its first stumble will be steep, too.

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Still probing highs, and still failing them. Potential to further probe the rally’s original 113.00 target was fulfilled Thursday, up to 114.00. Regardless, momentum would not be signaled reversing down until closing under 111.65. A reaction down from 114.00 did touch 111.65, chipping away at its support, but not yet closing under it.

Natural Gas Jun (NGM) The wait is rewarded, and then some. The extended narrow consolidation did break sharply higher to immediately fulfill the next target at 4.55. Exceeding the target up to 4.60 offers some potential for a bigger rally leg to be unfolding, so long as pullbacks now hold 4.52 as support, and especially if Friday’s close is higher for a second consecutive session to confirm Thursday’s breakout. But closing any lower – or not confirming Thursday’s breakout attempt – would be vulnerable to another downleg next week.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Not a good day in the spotlight. Wednesday’s session did not improve above 122’02, which was still being tested as resistance at Tuesday’s close. Trading flat-to-lower was the opposite of closing higher, which would have confirmed the breakout. However, the gap back up to Tuesday’s 122’04 close should be retested, whether to launch a more durable downleg, or to resume the rally.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Another bottoming window is rejected. Still testing prior lows at Tuesday’s close did not equate to having recovered from probing new lows. Closing above Tuesday’s high still would have been bullish. But intraday tests of Tuesday’s high were rejected by a steep drop to new lows for the trend, which remains down.

Gold Jun (GCM) Excessive buying on excessive optimism. The bounce from Tuesday’s drop extended up to probe Sunday night’s 1519.00 area highs. The regular close exceeded it, and post-close action has tested 1530.00. Since Tuesday’s drop stopped short of touching the 4-day low, Wednesday’s higher high is vulnerable to being only a retest of Monday’s (Sunday night’s) high.

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) No unfinished business above. Despite Wednesday’s weaker open down to 110.71, a substantial intraday turnaround probed Monday’s 113.22 opening gap up to 113.40. This was just short of touching prior intraday highs, which may be enough pessimism to avoid a downleg. Regardless, closing under 112.30 would signal the bounce’s momentum had ended. But a close under 111.65 is needed to signal momentum reversing down.

Natural Gas Jun (NGM) Narrow, extended ranging is not accumulation. Tuesday’s consolidation was unnecessary following Monday’s consolidation. So, Wednesday’s consolidation did not help the rally potential at all. Especially since Tuesday’s close had snapped back from touching the range’s low, and Wednesday’s open tried initially to extend higher. The 4.55 target is still possible, but now its test is likely to hold as resistance.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).