Daily Spot

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) To the lowest bidder. Auction results seemed to upset an otherwise optimistic day, which had initially probed the highest levels in more than a week. Th close still recovered back to 121’14, whose recovery on a closing basis would still target 123’06 and 124’00. Regardless of Thursday’s shortfall, the levitation act is impressive for not yet resuming the drop to 118.00

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Back to square-one. All that ineffectual optimism above 81.10 made the corrective dip likelier to test 80.00 than just 80.50. Now prior lows are being attacked (while the Euro is relatively further below its prior highs). This area did not require being revisited in order to form a more durable bottom; it has been tested thoroughly already. A fresh low would trigger a new downleg underway. Recovering above 80.00 would be bullish for new highs, but the potential for a long-term recovery has all but disappeared.

Gold Feb (GCG) Third day’s a harm. Wednesday’s retest of 1378.00 hadn’t gained any traction for its efforts. A substantial rally at Thursday’s open seemed to compensate for the delay. It didn’t. A surge to 1393.00 fell back under 1380.00, and went flat into the pit close around 1385.00-1386.00. Tumbling afterwards to test 1370.00 suggests another test of 1365.00 ahead. And 1365.00 might hold again if tested by a gap that hasn’t yet gained traction intraday. But I’ll need to see that test and see that test hold before considering a long-entry.

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Pushing didn’t come to shoving. Thursday’s retest of Wednesday’s high ended back under 91.70 to signal that buyers had lost traction. Combined with having fully retraced back to natural resistance at the shock drop’s origin, a close under 91.00 should signal Friday that momentum has reversed down.

Natural Gas Feb (NGG) Waiting. No close above 4.55 Thursday – not even its test. But 4.40 was tested again as support. It’s a natural pullback limit from holding resistance. But limiting the pullback is not as important as launching a surge through 4.55 without further delay to avoid sellers gaining traction.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Fill ‘er up. Tuesday’s close above the 91.00 target kept in-play 91.70. It was tested overnight, and retested intraday. It was exceeded, back up to 92.50, where the shock drop originated last Monday. The drop’s origin held as resistance, but 91.70 held as support when tested before the close. Closing back under 91.00 would signal momentum reversing down. Otherwise, a close above 93.00 could turn the recent dips to 87.50 into a base for launching a new upleg.

Natural Gas Feb (NGG) This is no time to rest. A fresh high overnight tested the 4.55 signal. It was retested intraday Wednesday. Twice. And then a third time into the close. Neither held on a closing basis. A shallower bounce into the close attacked 4.55 again, stopping short of touching it. Potential remains alive for extending higher, especially so long as 4.45 holds as support. But multiple tests of resistance must prove to have chipped away at it, or else be repelled by it.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Back things come to pullbacks that wait. The relentless delay finally broke under 80.10 and 80.90 Wednesday to start the pullback. It broke under its minimum 80.50 target and now is likely to also test 80.00.

Gold Feb (GCG) Holding support is not a rally. Another intraday recovery from a dip to 1378.00 did fail to close back above Tuesday’s highs. One day’s delay is acceptable, a third would not be. Wednesday was the second, and Thursday should either extend higher or else reveal a problem to the recovery.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Good news, bulls! (Bad news, too.) Wednesday’s gap down under Tuesday’s low did not extend. But its reaction filled the gap back to Tuesday’s close without closing above it. This neutralized the attraction above that might rescue falling prices or otherwise slow their pace in an extended decline.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Feb (GCG) It’s a good start, if it holds up. An overnight rally produced a gap open Tuesday well above the 1378.00 buy signal, and much nearer to the 1387.50-1390.00 first corrective bounce target. A pullback all the way down to 1372.40 filled the open’s gap back to Monday’s 1374.10 close, and still recovered to close back above the 1381.70 open.

These elements are bullish. Seemingly excessive optimism was restrained, a bearish gap was quickly filled and held intraday, and buyers did not lose traction. Tuesday’s extra dip to fill its opening gap, coupled with its close back above 1378.00, suggests the 1403.00-1404.00 corrective bounce target is likelier to be met.

There is some risk that Tuesday afternoon’s recovery expended much needed buying pressure that might have been more bullish to leave pent-up overnight. Just need to avoid closing back under 1378.00.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Exhale, already. Yet another strong open, yet again retraced to end the day testing 81.10 support. Corrective dip down to 80.50 may be avoided by breaking higher from this narrow extended consolidation. But that would not produce a durable rally.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Time’s up. 121’14 held yet another test as resistance, and reacted down much harder than its prior two tests. A bounce from 120’09 recovered to end the day testing 121’00, Monday and Friday afternoon’s lows. Back under 120’14 would signal momentum reversing down. Closing back above 121’14 would signal a bigger bounce underway targeting 123’06 and 124’00.

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) A bigger bounce, but a bounce. Tuesday’s gap up above 89.35-89.40 put into play the 91.00 corrective bounce target. Its test wasn’t rejected, thanks to a last-minute surge. Being only a last-minute surge, early weakness Wednesday would be credible for reversing it. Otherwise, potential to extend the bounce up to 91.70.

Natural Gas Feb (NGG) Yes, more of that, please. 4.40‘s thorough testing needed to launch a new upleg without much more delay, if any. Tuesday morning’s dip recovered into positive territory into the afternoon, extending higher to test 4.48. It’s a good start, but it’s just a start and needs to extend higher without delay.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) If at third… try, try again. Monday’s open gapped up to probe fresh highs yet again. Friday’s gap up to fresh highs was unlikely to gain traction, and did not. Monday’s was no likelier. And its close fell back into negative territory.

The retracement tested the range’s 81.10 upper-end as support. Back under 80.90 would trigger a corrective dip targeting 80.50. Delaying a corrective dip too much longer would make the dip become a new downleg when it inevitably does happen, and no longer likelier to recover.

Gold Feb (GCG) Not exploiting one setup often invites the other. Yet another intraday test of 1365.00 Monday whose break would resume the decline. Still no probe above above 1378.00 whose recovery would trigger a corrective bounce targeting 1387.50-1390.00, and probably 1403.00-1404.00.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) That’s not a glass ceiling. Probed 121’14 Monday after peaking 1 tick short of it Friday. Its recovery would negate last week’s chipping away at support, instead of resuming the decline formed by its pattern targeting 118.00.

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Another lower low’s rejection fails to gain traction. Monday’s gap up held repeated tests of 89.35-89.40 like Friday, instead of recovering it to trigger a rally targeting 91.70 (also like Friday).

Natural Gas Feb (NGG) Holding support is only half the battle. Monday’s ranging around 4.40 extended instead of bouncing. The window for resuming the rally remains open, but not too long past Tuesday’s open.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Pushing on a string. The week’s rally was already tired, so Friday’s gap up to new highs was reversed into negative territory. A bounce filled the open’s gap up and neutralized its attraction, and the bounce also prevented leaving pent-up buying pressure through the weekend. Back under 81.10 would target 80.50 or 80.00.

Gold Feb (GCG) Semi-recovers after dropping like a rock. Friday morning’s drop to new lows at 1352.70 was retraced to test 1378.00 resistance. Its recovery would signal a corrective bounce underway targeting 1387.50-1390.00. The correction would probably also target 1403.00-1404.00 thanks to Friday morning’s extra drop, and the afternoon’s drop having bounced from within 20 cents of the 1365.00 sell signal.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Was the intra-week’s drop for real? Came within 1 tick Friday of touching 121’14 whose recovery would have triggered a new upleg. Otherwise, the bounce from Wednesday’s dip under 119’18 has ended a corrective bounce, and back under 120’14 would resume the decline next targeting 118’00.

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Slippery slope. Held tests of 89.35-89.40 resistance to avoid triggering another corrective bounce, and slid instead to new lows at 87.25. The close was trying to recover back above prior lows up to 88.10. Sellers didn’t clearly gain traction, but they weren’t trapped either. Closing under 87.60 would target 84.25.

Natural Gas Feb (NGG) Slow-playing a recovery can be dangerous. Held 4.40 as support Friday, the gap back to last Friday’s close that had been filled already Thursday, but has yet to bounce off of it. At least it recovered from probing a lower low. Still need a close above 4.55 to signal buyers regaining control.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).