Daily Spot

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Wednesday’s 2-point intraday rally had expended a lot of energy after filling the gap back down to 119’18. Thursday did not extend higher, but at least its intraday lows held 120’12-120’14 critical support. Rallying sharply through 121’16 would be appropriate Friday to resume the corrective bounce targeting 123’06 and 124’00. Closing under 120’12 would be bearish.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) The 79.85 pullback target was tested at the open. It was retested into the close, after an interim bounce probed Wednesday’s range. Filling the gap back to Thursday’s open this way neutralizes its attraction below. It is not a buy signal, but it allows an immediate rally to be credible for extending into a durable recovery.

Gold Feb (GCG) Ended the day testing 1407.00 as support. Friday needs to prove that the test held, optimally by closing above Thursday’s 1415.00 high. The next higher objective of the corrective rally would be a test of 1427.40.

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Waiting for a fresh high to sell is no longer feasible. Thursday’s gap down under Monday’s 90.51 prior low extended down to 89.00 intraday. Lower lows should test 88.65-88.95, and could still recover to retest this week’s ~91.50 highs. But closing under 88.65 would signal the bigger downleg was already underway.

Natural Gas Feb (NGG) Gapped up optimistically ahead of Thursday’s EIA report, suffering its usual consequence of reversing into negative territory. Sellers didn’t gain traction, and a late surge closed 1-2 cents above the open’s 4.33 gap up. Leaving the buying pressure to become pent-up overnight would have been more assured of rallying Friday. Extending higher without delay would still be bullish.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Having delayed for so long the retest of the three-week old gap open, higher highs are likely. The narrow consolidation probing fresh highs does not reflect pessimism that might otherwise launch a more durable upleg. So, a fresh high that fails would be credible for launching a downleg.

Wednesday’s gap down spent the entire session in negative territory without extending (circled). This is “ineffectual pessimism” that all but ensures resolving up, at least temporarily. A lower low Thursday would be suspicious, and likely recovered.

Natural Gas Feb (NGG) [Rolling coverage forward from Jan to Feb, which trades at a 5-cent premium.] Nothing new Wednesday, except that there was nothing new Wednesday. And that all but requires Thursday to resume the rally. EIA is a likely catalyst, but the big reason is to extend above last Monday’s prior high (circled green).

Closing almost any higher Thursday would essentially confirm the three-week old Head & Shoulders (highlighted red) was no longer influential. Wednesday’s ranging around last Monday’s high confirms the area’s relevance. But its first trending attempt would be vulnerable to reversing.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Unnecessarily neutralizing so much pent-up buying pressure Tuesday, without gaining traction, made a retest of its lows likely. The immediate drop Wednesday closed the day while still probing Tuesday’s low. The 79.85 pullback target remains in-play.

Gold Feb (GCG) Tuesday’s narrow ranging around its 1407.00 target and the sizable gap up getting there were optimistic. Higher highs Wednesday – the highest levels in three weeks – are excessively optimistic since there was no interim pullback to refuel buyers. The rally’s purpose is to retest 1427.40, and not to form a new upleg.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Wednesday did exactly what it needed to do, and what could have been Tuesday, by rallying sharply after filling the gap back down to 119’18. The ~2-point intraday rally recovered all the way back to Tuesday’s high. It’s still a corrective rally, and it’s still at risk of failing – more so now since buyers just expended a lot of energy on Wednesday’s ~2-point rally.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Gold Feb (GCG) Monday and Tuesday’s struggle at 1381.00 was rewarded by gapping up to test the next objective at 1407.00. Price hovered at session highs through the day. Higher highs would target 1427.40. Pullbacks meanwhile have room down to 1388.00-1392.00 without sellers gaining traction.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Tuesday’s gap down to 80.12 confirmed that lst week’s probes of 80.90-81.10 were distribution, and Monday’s test of 80.60 signaled that its previous recovery had failed. A drop back to 79.85 is possible. Tuesday’s recovery from the gap down failed to turn positive, so buyers expended a lot of energy while failing to gain traction.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Monday afternoon’s rally effort would have extended higher Tuesday if it were valid. By the same token, Monday’s lows should not have been retested again after launching Monday afternoon’s rally effort. Tuesday’s drop filled the gap back to 119’18. It must be rejected immediately Wednesday to avoid gaining traction.

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Still waiting for a fresh high and its rejection before entertaining a short-entry.

Natural Gas Jan (NGF) Tuesday’s close above 4.21-24 was just as important as the character of price action. It did follow Monday afternoon’s surge with another, which would be appropriate for a rally this stage of the pattern. There’s still no time for much delay or pullback before extending higher.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Mon gapped down and quickly bottomed upon testing 80.60 as support. Its recovery last week had signaled prior highs would be probed, too. Its retest this week – without launching another upleg – suggests the probe failed.

At least the balance of Monday’s session only ranged sideways, exclusively in negative territory. The “ineffectual pessimism” does make an immediately recovery credible for extending higher if attempted. Emphasis on the characteristic “immediately.” Delaying a recovery would increase the attraction back down to 79.85.

Last week’s probe of prior highs never recovered the 81.10 confirmation that a new rally leg was underway. Each session probed the prior session’s high without closing above it. Overcoming that distribution would be powerful. And it would have to be overcome the same day as trying to recover 80.90 to avoid being distributive.

Gold Feb (GCG) Like Thursday’s close, Monday’s session also ended while in the process of trying to recover 1381.00. Sunday night’s gap down had also fallen to Thursday’s lows. The overnight recovery to 1387.00 stopped pessimistically short of filling gap back to last Wednesday’s close. Exploiting these potentially bullish elements without delay would  launch a more productive rally next targeting 1407.00.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Support held another test Monday and surged into the close. Most interesting was the lack of any correlated markets trading so inversely or in tandem. An earnest attempt to rally back to 123’06 or 124’00 should follow-through above 121’18-121’20 without delay before retesting support.

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Monday’s gap down was retraced but not rejected. A fresh low Tuesday under 90.50 would target 89.90. A close under 89.35 would seal the top and reverse momentum down. Otherwise, the delay in retesting the three-week old prior high still makes higher highs likely first, up to 92.50 or 93.50.

Natural Gas Jan (NGF) Recovered a test under 4.02 back above 4.06, to close back above 4.11 whose recovery Wednesday had reinstated potential for a larger rally. Follow-through Tuesday to close above 4.21-4.24 would signal that larger rally underway. Closing under 4.02 would trigger a downleg. The February contract’s premium is 5 cents.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Volume wasted away Thursday ahead of its early close, so the day offered no new information. That’s not new. Sunday night’s open will probably offer more information than from last two sessions.

A corrective bounce pattern is in-play targting at least 123’06 and potentially 124’00. Meanwhile, closes should hold 120’02, especially if there were a dip down to 119’18. Any dip should be brief to avoid sellers gaining traction under 119’12.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) A third consecutive day of testing and probing the prior session’s high, while failing to clsoe above it. Thursday also closed in negative territory, after being the first of three days not to recover from probing negative territory. Buyers haven’t gained new traction, which means only way to advance ball upfield is to gap up. Not gapping up makes the session vulnerable to reversing back down under 80.60 which would target 79.85.

Gold Feb (GCG) Thursday’s gap down under 1381.00 extended all the way back to prior lows at 1372.00-1374.00. The close still managed to recover back above 1381.00. Barely. Sellers did not gain traction despite gapping down and probing fresh lows for the week. It’s not a buy signal, but it should be followed by strong buying to prevent sellers from trying again and potentially gaining traction.

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Finally filled the gap back to the two-week old 91.10 open. Still vulnerable to extending higher – if not likely – to 92.45 or 93.15, so long as 90.90 holds any test as support. A deeper pullback could test 89.40 before signaling a new downleg underway.

Natural Gas Jan (NGF) Friday’s flat range doesn’t confirm a recovery underway as would closing above 4.21. Neither does it prevent sellers from regaining control. Support at 4.06 held another test as support, and 4.21 wasn’t probed intraday before failing to close above it. Perhaps biggest reason the recovery potenital gets a benefit of the doubt is because the door was open to sellers regaining tractoin and they didn’t.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).