Daily Spot

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.

[pay]Gold Dec (GCZ) Gold’s bubble keeps inflating. Buyers are not gaining traction in the uptrend, as evidenced by repeated incidences of “ineffectual optimism” along the way.

Most recent was Friday and Monday’s ranging around Thursday’s high without closing above it – after Friday’s open gapped up there and probed higher. There, but for the grace of sellers, went a rally. And it extended sharply higher Wednesday, gapping up $13 and extending another $13 intraday to test 1342.00.

The next higher objective where sellers might finally make a stand is 1349.20, and potentially 1383.50. Their first salvo would be a steep drop that reveals little depth among buyers, sort of an “emperor has no clothes” moment. A recovery and brief distribution back at the highs would interrupt the exodus.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) The second consecutive night of probing a fresh high that disappeared by the open, never to be retested intraday, without any renewed selling effort to punish the overnight buyers. That, and only slighter weakness in the face of broad-based buying among stocks, suggests the highs will be retested before resuming the drop. Next targeting 134’27 and potentially 135’20.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Monday’s push-back from 82.10-82.15 resistance already ended with Tuesday’s gap up to fresh highs that extended higher. Signs of excessive optimism. The 83.20-83.25 target remains in-play, with greater potential to hold the rally.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Inside day.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Monday’s ineffectual optimism resolved in new lows, but new lows did not recover. The gap down trended down through the morning and stayed down through the close. The open gapped to Friday’s prior low close – not through it – so a recovery Wednesday might not leave unfinished business below.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.

[pay]Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Monday’s opening gap up remained in positive territory throughout the day  (boxed red). But the market did not trend higher. A recovery would not have been credible, anyway, not until Friday’s low is probed.

While the “inefficient optimism” left outstanding the test of Friday’s low, i.e. a new low intraday, there is also the gap back to Friday’s close to be filled (circled green).

The setup is still in-play in which a probe under Friday’s 78.30 low that closes above its 78.63 high would be able to explode higher Wednesday – and presumably with better results than last Thursday.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Monday’s narrowly ranging inside day, still hovering at last Thursday’s high, further confirms Friday’s “ineffectual optimism.”

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Not much going on Monday, after fulfilling its potential overnight to 134’10 without following-through. The ineffectual optimism gapped up, ranged sideways, and probed the morning’s high without closing above it or above any relevant prior highs. It’s not a sell signal but not the stuff of a durable breakout rally.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Hit its 82.10-82.15 resistance, which pushed back. Nothing technically to undermine its ongoing potential to 83.20-83.25.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Monday extended down despite a lot of opportunities for buyers to gain traction. In this sense, the pattern resembles capitulation – gapping down, ranging exclusively negative intraday. It is not ineffectual optimism, but a gap up above 3.80 would form an Island.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.

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Gold Dec (GCZ) Friday’s open gapped up to 1316.50, just under Thursday’s 1317.50 high. The close was still in the process of testing Thursday’s high, despite new highs probing it intraday. No meaningful net movement from open to close, despite gapping up and probing new highs. This is “ineffectual optimism,” and following Thursday’s key reversal, is another signal of the uptrend having lost sponsorship.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Friday’s inside day retested 132’28 support, but closed negative. Unless sellers are clearly retaking control by Tuesday’s open, a bounce to 134’10 and 135’20 will likely be in-play.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) The 81.35 target was met early. Its reaction down was recovered to close higher. Extending a trend on Friday is unlikely to reverse on Monday. The next resistance at 82.12 should be only a formality on the way to 83.25. A gap down under 79.95 would form an Island that detours down first.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Friday’s inside day trended down, further undermining credibility of the drop’s sponsorship. Immediately recovering 3.95-4.00 to trigger a rally would be suspicious before first probing and rejecting fresh lows on Monday.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Thursday’s failure to close above Wednesday’s high meant the recovery had not yet gained traction. The consequence was dramatic, gapping down sharply to new lows and trending down intraday. Since Thursday’s close was not a new low, Friday’s drop is a breakout, and Friday breakouts are seldom confirmed on Monday. Recovering from fresh lows would reinstate the potential for rallying sharply through the week.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.

[pay]30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Thursday morning’s open bounced back into Wednesday’s range to 134’07. The 9:45’s PMI revealed the frailty of this week’s rally by triggering a 1-3/4 point plunge to 132’09.

After consolidating around 132’28, the drop recovered to unchanged. So, what to make of the intraday dive – completed correction, warning shot across the bow? The low held 132’10 whose break would have signaled momentum reversing down. Now that it has held a test, a close under its 131’25 confirmation is all the more important.

The low’s “V” bottom tends to be retested, regardless of the eventual resolution. Thursday’s afternoon-long narrow range at unchanged suggests an intraday blip-up would serve as a rubber band to snap back down. But a close above 134’04 would signal a new upleg underway instead.

Gold Dec (GCZ) The inverse reaction to the Dollar was on full-view Thursday when each fluctuated widely. A close under 1300.50 was avoided, and so was a signal that momentum has yet reversed down.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) The patience was rewarded in allowing more time for rallying off of 75.65 and through 77.00. Wednesday’s close back above 77.00 gapped up and extended to 80.00 at Thursday’s close. Now 81.35 is targeted so long as Friday’s open doesn’t gap down back under Wednesday’s 78.00 high.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) A close above 4.00 Thursday in reaction EIA data would have been able to extend up sharply. The reaction instead spiked down to new lows. But the reaction was retraced enough to end the day testing Monday’s low, so sellers did not gain traction despite expending much energy. A close above 3.95-4.00 would still be likely to trend up sharply.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) The pattern’s timing reacted almost perfectly by both probing and rejecting a new trend low, then closing above Wednesday’s low. A close above Wednesday’s high would have been optimal, but accelerating the recovery into the weekend would suffice. A close above 79.94 at any time would signal a new upleg underway targeting 82.00.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Buyers had one more day to launch a rally off of 75.65 and above 77.00. It wasn’t immediately, not until EIA reported Wednesday, but 77.00 was recovered to put new relative highs into play.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) After having bounced first to test 4.00, too soon for buyers to gain traction, Tuesday’s session ended in decline. The pullback fell to 3.92 Wednesday, testing the gap back to Monday’s open. Thanks to having touched “higher prior lows” at 4.00 first, the dip was not arbitrary, and there is now no unfinished business below. A rally would be credible for extending sharply higher.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Despite extending up sharply Tuesday to new highs, ranged narrowly sideways Wednesday. Potential for 2-3 day Pivot Reversal pattern now all but requires closing Thursday under 1286.50. But just closing under 1300.50 would indicate buyers had not gained traction.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Wednesday’s inside day hovered at the range’s highs, no change to the pattern.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) New lows for the fourth consecutive session Wednesday. But it was not recovered back above Tuesday’s lows, which would have repeated the Friday/Monday pattern. Probing of new lows has not ended, but the timing remains unchanged – a recovery attempted on Thursday would be very likely to gain traction.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).