Daily Spot

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.

[pay]Gold Dec (GCZ) Many bearish elements have been piling up, but hovering for so long just under a round number was going to probe it. Tuesday’s open gapped down to the range’s lower-end, but the balance of the session rallied sharply to and through 1300.00. Room for noise up to 1313.00 around Tuesday’s high need not be touched.

A “pivot reversal” would form from closing under Tuesday’s low. Gapping down in an uptrend following fresh highs, then recovering to new highs, only to close back under the gap down’s low. The setup normally forms intraday, but can develop over 2-3 days.

A close under 1286.50 would signal that momentum had reversed down, and under 1282.00 would confirm. Tuesday’s rally does create extra room to absorb selling, and closing above 1286.50 after probing 1282.00 intraday would be bullish. Otherwise, the beginning of the end is in sight.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Monday’s “inside day” trended up, so its first trending attempt was likely to be false. The trending attempt probed prior highs. Pullbacks have room down to 133’10 before sellers gain traction to 132’10, where a lower close would signal momentum reversing down, confirmed under 131’25. Noise around Tuesday’s 134’10 high could touch 134’27.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Attacked 77.00 but didn’t break through. Still holding 75.65 support, but the delay is not bullish. Closing under 75.55 would signal the Head & Shoulders was reasserting itself.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Rallied back to 4.00 which is likely to hold as resistance. Gapping above it could have formed Island, but now fresh lows are likely.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Tuesday further confirmed the developing pattern by not rallying after Monday failed to confirm Friday’s breakout. The pattern now targets new lows around 78.82, and then a close above Tuesday’s ~79.05 low similar to the Friday/Monday pattern. A substantial rally should then be underway by Wednesday afternoon or Thursday morning.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.

[pay]Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) The Complex Triangle pattern’s break lower was never retraced above a buy signal. But a brief consolidation resolved down sharply Friday, gapping down and extending to new lows.

Friday breakouts don’t often gain traction. In fact, despite probing a fresh low, Monday’s session closed back above Friday’s low. And the fresh low was early enough to have plenty of time for extending down if that were its intent. Fresh lows could still be probed, and a lower close Tuesday would set-up another fresh low Wednesday.

A close above 79.94 would begin to signal momentum reversing up. Other hurdles would need to be overcome on the path to recovery. But a valid recovery would overcome them quickly on the way back to the triangle’s 82.00 high.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Inside day Monday, didn’t even probe fresh high while dollar probed fresh low. Still behaves more like distribution than either accumulation or trending. But not rejecting the 1300.00 round number suggests it will at least be probed.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Bounce targeting 132’28 gapped up to within ticks of the objective Tuesday. The balance of the day was spent trending up within Thursday’s range – essentially an inside day biased upward. Now a gap is outstanding back down to Friday’s 131’25 close. The optimistic hovering above 131’20 should at least be probed as support.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Friday’s recovery above 75.65 initially extended higher to probe 77.00. Subsequent dip held test of 75.65 as support. Unless 75.65 were broken quickly Tuesday to extend down in decline’s resumption, the rally should resume early, targeting prior highs and higher.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Underestimated the negative consequences to last week’s excessive optimism. Prolonging the basing for another upleg, and requiring more trapped sellers is an understatement. Monday’s open gapped down sharply below all prior lows. No rally would be credible anytime soon.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.

[pay]Gold Dec (GCZ) Higher highs probed the widely watched 1300.00 up to 1301.60. It was retraced down to the 1294.00 target that is the 200% swing from the recent failed Head & Shoulders pattern. Although it was still being tested as support through the close, it has not been exceeded in a way that would create higher targets. At least two of the three outstanding gaps below should be filled regardless of the pattern’s eventual resolution.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Two days of distribution above 132’28 all but required at least a dip down to 131’20. Friday’s low came within 1 tick. The margin wouldn’t be remarkable, except that it was met early enough to allow plenty of time for either a bounce, or for a slightly lower low to recover. Instead, it is excessive optimism. A failed bounce back to the 133’28 132’28 area would help to seal a top.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Despite holding 75.65 resistance Thursday, Friday broke $1 higher. Its break was early, and the morning’s high was tested repeatedly throughout the afternoon. If confirmed by closing higher Monday, then a rally leg targeting 79.55 is underway.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Thursday’s inappropriate optimism was not retraced low enough to suffer any consequence. A retest of prior lows was required, and Friday’s gap down quickly complied. Now the only unfinished business is above, the gap back to Thursday’s 4.15 close. Monday morning is probably too soon to retry a rally, but any strength following a lower low under 4.00 would be credible for extending higher.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) The open’s gap under 79.93 extended down to new lows. It leaves outstanding a gap back to Thursday’s 80.24 close. It might attract price higher intraday, but a close above 79.93 is needed to confirm a bottom is in.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.

[pay]30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) RSIs had not deteriorated during Wednesday’s repeated probes above 132’28, making another failed probe likely. Thursday’s higher high wasn’t technically confirmed, so it doesn’t require a retest.

Price action was an even bigger problem. More than repeating Wednesday’s failed probes above 132’28, Thursday’s failure also probed Wednesday’s high. And the intraday high peaked upon testing the next higher target at 133’20. That’s a lot of buying pressure to expend, and to satisfy, without gaining any traction for the effort.

At least a dip down to 131’20 is almost obligatory, regardless of its resolution – either to gain more traction towards fulfilling the 128’14 target, or to launch a more substantial rally leg. Extending higher isn’t likely without gapping up.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Still ranging sideways around its higher target, trended up intraday while remaining within the range, which wasted buying pressure.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Peaked intraday within pennies of 75.65, whose recovery would signal a much larger rally underway. A close under 74.25-74.50 would signal the Head & Shoulders pattern was breaking lower.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) More optimism by way of a momentary spike up on EIA data. Although the gain was quickly rejected, it was only rejected, and the pattern has yet to incorporate any consequences for the impatient optimism.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Ranged sideways. Must avoid closing under 79.93 to maintain the bottoming.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.

[pay]

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Monday’s rally back into Wednesday’s range never gained traction. An opportunity to probe higher was not exploited Tuesday, which instead retraced 61.8% of the rally into Monday’s high. The corrective bounce could have resumed.

A corrective bounce was limited to briefly retesting Monday’s high. A steep intraday drop probed last week’s low – the origin of Monday’s bounce – and new lows for the month.

The resulting price action is potentially forming a Complex Head & Shoulders. It is projecting a drop to new lows targeting 69.05-69.85, and potentially 67.90. Being a Complex pattern, its direction could invert, and a close above 76.35 would trigger a more substantial rally leg.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) Monday’s crash to prior lows repeated a more subdued crash last week. While that can satisfy a lot of selling pressure – possibly also create more net short selling pressure – bouncing too quickly would attract more. A dip intraday to fresh lows that recovers through the close would be a buy signal

Gold Dec (GCZ) Wednesday’s high fulfilled the 1294.00 200% swing target from early September’s failed Head & Shoulders pattern. A pullback to 1280.50 would be able to launch a retest of 1294.00, and allow momentum to reverse down more sustainably.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Wednesday’s open tested 132’28 resistance, and Wednesday’s close returned it, after probing higher highs intraday. Shorter-term RSIs did not deteriorate, so a drop can begin immediately only by gapping or spiking down. Otherwise, another failed probe of 132’28 is needed first.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Tuesday’s drop extended down overnight for Wednesday’s open to gap under the Complex Triangle’s 161.8% target. So long as 79.94 holds as support, a bounce to 80.75-81.00 is likely. And a bounce has potential to extend much higher.
[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).