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Bigger Picture – Page 452 – If, Then… Market Timing

Bigger Picture

Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Oct 7, 2015

A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.

Highlights:  Wednesday’s calendar isn’t notable. Perhaps the 10-year can cause some hesitation for being an unknown. But otherwise the day’s reports are neither high-profile nor influential to price action.

MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET

Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET

10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET

Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET

Special notes about today…

  1. If you’re in the New York City area, please join me for cocktails and apps Wednesday evening at 6:30pm ET. We’ll be at Hama Sushi & Sake, 11 W. 51st. Please email me your mobile number by tomorrow afternoon if you’re coming.
  2. I’m traveling this afternoon, so I’ll be unavailable for the session’s last two hours after 2:00pm ET. This means no post-market Wrap.
  3. The post-market summary and bias parameters will be available later tonight.

Livestox Recording Oct 5, 2015

Monday’s post-close Livestox recording is below, and the stocks we addressed in order follow that.  Please don’t hesitate posting follow-up questions to this blog post’s thread… NOTE: Next week’s post-close Livestox will be Tuesday.

Livestox recording (MP4)

SPX

SRNA / TRTC — The former is taking a long time to resolve a similar pattern, which is why the latter is targeting new lows

LXRP — above .19 would be bullish so long as .15 were held as support

CANN — above 1.20 would target 2.27 so long as 1.08 were held as support

MSRT — trigger is above 1.05

TAUG — trigger is above .006

CARA — above 14.25 has potential for a corrective bounce targeting 17.75

INSY — so long as basing holds here at 25.65-28.90, back above 30.50 would target 39.25

GWPH — Chance for a bounce to 105

AAPL — trading mid-range, not indicating which direction it will resolve first

GPRO — probing under 34 support, back above 36.40 would suggest the pullback had ended

TSLA — under 221 is bearish

GOOGL — retesting 671 resistance with no requirement to break higher

AMZN — unfinished business above remains outstanding at 579

RIG / CLF — updating comments from last week that the patterns are bullish

TWTR –my most timely pick, having held multiple tests and attacks on 24 while volume improves

NFLX — needs 2nd consecutive higher close Tue to avoid being a false breakout

TPIV — request

TACT — request

GILD — big band of support down to 88-94 but above 108 would target new highs

MRO — targeting 22.25 so long as 16.50 support holds

Daily Spot… Bonds — buy-bye?

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s reaction down from probing the 1.1265 bounce limit extended down Monday through the 1.1213 sell signal to put into play fresh lows targeting 1.1045 and potentially also 1.0900. A second consecutive lower close under 1.1190 would confirm.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending its pullback to test 1130.00 Monday morning was quickly recovered back above 1133.50 to suggest the rubber band was snapping back up to resume the rally. But a second consecutive higher close didn’t confirm the breakout underway.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up and extending sharply higher Monday now requires that pullbacks hold 15.55 to maintain the rally’s momentum.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
After closing Friday while testing Thursday’s high, gapping down Monday within Friday’s range doesn’t require filling the gap back up to Friday’s close before extending down, which is suggested by closing under 157-24.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Surging above 46.00 through Monday’s open attacked 47.00, but didn’t signal the trend breaking higher. The ongoing narrow consolidation remains vulnerable to breaking lower, initially targeting 42.80 and potentially probing last month’s lows.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday avoided piercing any prior low and only ranged flat-to-higher. Early above 2.48 Tuesday would be credible for extending higher intraday, so long as 2.44 were to hold any test as support.