Bigger Picture

This weekend we examined  the details of Friday’s inverted setup, compared and contrasted it to the prior Friday’s similar turn of events, and extrapolated out its possible implications for Monday. The bigger picture was discussed, too, including a lot of great questions and observations among attendees.

 MP4 version   ||   ilinc version

The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
GM, SC, AMZN, NFLX, SIG, HOG, GOOGL BGCA, HD, IBKR, CBI, IBB, WYNN, LVS, GILD, FB

10/03/2015 09:31:41 David B: Good morning
10/03/2015 09:50:41 MK: because this has all happened in the same “space” seems to me like this is just a lot of noise in the range no? sponsorship hasn’t changed much… IMO
10/03/2015 09:52:35 David B: is this wasn’t a friday would we be talking about a totally different outcome?
10/03/2015 09:56:16 David B: do you think this reversal was a lot of short covering or the view is now the fed is on hold for 2015 and maybe a good part of 2016 with a possible QE down the road?.
10/03/2015 09:56:35 MK: what i mean
10/03/2015 09:56:35 MK: is
10/03/2015 09:56:39 MK: LOwer highs
10/03/2015 09:56:43 MK: and lower lows
10/03/2015 09:57:32 MK: yes
10/03/2015 09:59:59 MK: ha
10/03/2015 10:00:17 MK: mention yourslelf 30 times in the next paragraph and i’ll really laugh
10/03/2015 10:02:06 Mark Glezer: Late to the party today. Maybe the likely scenario for Mon is to gap up to 1960 & trend down from there in the context of a trend extreme?
10/03/2015 10:02:11 David B: has there been a double bottom put in with a very close test of the aug lows on tuesday?
10/03/2015 10:08:49 David B: with earnings seen upon us and the view they are not going to be good will we start to see bad news is good news and other news events that start to come out after
10/03/2015 10:11:27 Mark Glezer: is it possible that we get much higher like all time high before getting to new lows?
10/03/2015 10:12:40 David B: i think a couple of sat strategy sessions you talked about an ascending triangle and I thought you said if we saw a decline to the aug lows this would be bullish oppose to another leg up and then a drop. Is this ascending triangle off the table
10/03/2015 10:13:48 Mark Glezer: so 2000 at best might be?
10/03/2015 10:14:07 Mark Glezer: 2011.75
10/03/2015 10:16:33 David B: yes
10/03/2015 10:17:39 MK: OK STAWX
10/03/2015 10:17:45 MK: Short Ideas
10/03/2015 10:17:46 MK: GM
10/03/2015 10:17:48 MK: SC
10/03/2015 10:18:14 MK: SIG
10/03/2015 10:18:23 tom: amzn
10/03/2015 10:18:27 MK: HOG
10/03/2015 10:18:27 tom: nflx
10/03/2015 10:21:15 David B: one other question it looks like the pattern we are seeing today look similiar to aug 2011 and then in oct after testing those lows we rallied pretty substanially. Do you see similarities and we could resolve the same way and if we don’t that we have much much further to fall?
10/03/2015 10:22:22 MK: ok
10/03/2015 10:22:33 MK: funamentally both those plays are on Rising rates
10/03/2015 10:22:39 MK: same with hog
10/03/2015 10:22:45 MK: so if that thesis is thrown out
10/03/2015 10:22:49 MK: these acutally look like buys
10/03/2015 10:23:35 MK: IBKR (L)
10/03/2015 10:25:05 tom: ok thx
10/03/2015 10:28:04 tom: nflx hardly moved yesterday but reports eanings on the 14th and implied volatility is huge on Oct 15 options which should support price
10/03/2015 10:28:07 David B: just going back to the aug lows around 1857 and tuesday low of 1861 isn’t the spread between the futures and cash different at those times so how you can make a distinction it was not equivalent test?
10/03/2015 10:28:29 MK: ok moving on
10/03/2015 10:29:25 MK: ok
10/03/2015 10:29:41 MK: HD (S)
10/03/2015 10:30:47 Mark Glezer: Rod, did u mention your schedule for Wed night in NYC?
10/03/2015 10:30:48 MK: no
10/03/2015 10:30:52 MK: IBKR (L)
10/03/2015 10:30:54 MK: HD(S)
10/03/2015 10:31:25 MK: CBI (L)
10/03/2015 10:31:28 tom: googl
10/03/2015 10:34:49 Mark Glezer: BGCA
10/03/2015 10:40:13 MK: looking at that chart
10/03/2015 10:40:15 MK: i’m less bullish
10/03/2015 10:40:33 Mark Glezer: Sushi Hama @ Rockefeller Center – 11 W 51st – b/w 5th & 6th Ave
10/03/2015 10:41:58 MK: HD
10/03/2015 10:41:59 MK: not HDS
10/03/2015 10:42:51 MK: i’m about to capitualte on this short
10/03/2015 10:43:00 MK: capitulate
10/03/2015 10:44:10 MK: ok
10/03/2015 10:45:29 tom: thx
10/03/2015 10:45:30 MK: have a good weekend eveyroen
10/03/2015 10:48:04 Mark Glezer: yes
10/03/2015 10:48:41 Mark Glezer: sushi place I suggested for Wed
10/03/2015 10:50:27 David B: can you go back and look at last question about the aug and tuesday lows test.
10/03/2015 10:51:28 David B: so it has to be 1867?
10/03/2015 10:51:40 David B: to test?
10/03/2015 10:51:58 Mark Glezer: based on Fri action does it look like unless we gap down substantially, reversal down is unlikely to happen immediately?
10/03/2015 10:53:07 Josey: A fresh low was made it looks like back then 2011 on a retest of low
10/03/2015 10:53:30 David B: yes
10/03/2015 10:54:29 David B: does what is going look similiar to 1987?
10/03/2015 10:54:35 David B: going on
10/03/2015 10:54:43 David B: from aug to oct
10/03/2015 10:55:43 David B: is your expectaion to at least see 1695?
10/03/2015 10:58:11 Mark Glezer: 1400?
10/03/2015 10:58:30 David B: was 666a true bottom put in?
10/03/2015 10:59:38 David B: you always talked about BAC and its low
10/03/2015 11:04:13 Josey: TY Rod, All have a great weekend :)
10/03/2015 11:04:25 David B: Thanks
10/03/2015 11:04:51 Mark Glezer: thx much