Bigger Picture

I highlighted 5 bullish marijuana stock patterns in this week’s The Universe. One has doubled as of this morning’s open. But their moves since Friday’s closes to yesterday’s highs were pretty productive for a couple already:

CARA — 10.93 to 12.43
OSLH — .011 to .018

The three other bullish patterns
OXIS — pullback targeting .030-.033
DIGP — no parameters
MYHI — no parameters

(The other two patterns I noted are potential bottom fishers, CNAB and SRNA).

Meanwhile, we’ve been implementing the Trade Alerts, buying CLF at levels discussed during Livestox sessions. I’ll discuss other candidates at the next Livestox. Speaking of which…

We’ll discuss these issues and more during the noon hour (12:15pm ET) Livestox. Login info is below. (Below that is a compendium of Activity Feed posts that can now be indexed by the Marketfy search.)
Login info: (iPads and Tablets use the accompanying teleconference info to get audio.)
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxsrhm

optional teleconference instructions (required for iPad and tablets):
1-605-562-0020
Meeting ID 976-912-682 #

Josey — Hi Rod, ? on oil. Would you consider that a W pattern from 12/26/2014 to current? Or is there to many zig zags? I guess that it would still have to clear 56.00 with volume to be a W? Posted 5 days ago — “Edited”
Jo B — thanks Rod. can u please elaborate on OXIS predictive pattern? thanks. Posted 5 days ago
Rod-David — Josey — I don’t consider that a “W”. February’s consolidation at 50-56 created a separate formation. I’m sure that some might characterize it that way, but I like to focus on individual aspects because that’s what dictates specific price levels. Posted 5 days ago
Rod-David — OXIS — I don’t really have anything to elaborate on regarding the predictive patterns. I just wanted to point out what is now happening in the stock that is starting to make it predictive, which is basically the meaningful dip. Posted 5 days ago
guanito — Hi Rod – The video starts with a chart of VPOR but no discussion. Still looking for a new low there? Posted 5 days ago — “Edited”
guanito — You also mentioned DEWM. Wondering if the chart’s pattern’s still valid. Busy at work so I have to catch the re-runs. Tks. Posted 5 days ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — VPOR — That happened to the chart displayed when the software opened, I don’t have any new patterns for it. Mar’s low that attacked Feb’s low can’t afford to be pierced or else a little levee breaks and a new round of selling begins. A fresh high above .0024 must behave very bullishly immediately to avoid serving as a rubber band that snaps back down. Posted 5 days ago
Rod-David — DEWM — Sorry, that was in the irretrievable portion of the video… Basically, closing avbove .0062 would be bullish Posted 5 days ago
guanito — tks Posted 4 days ago
recentiy03 — This isn’t a technical stock-specific question, but rather a general question: in lieu of Judge Kimberly Mueller’s upcoming ruling on the constitutionality of including cannabis as a schedule 1 drug, any ideas as to which stocks stand to have the largest immediate gains in event of a positive ruling? As of right now, there is a status conference scheduled for April 15th, which is a rescheduled status conference from March 25th. It’s possible she rules before the April 15th hearing. Incidentally, without turning this post into a novel, it appears on February 11th the Judge indicated she would issue her ruling within the next 30 days…and yet here we are… Posted 4 days ago — “Edited”
Rod David — recently03 — Which stocks stand to benefit most would be based mostly on how much their models depend on the scheduling. For example, is that as much an issue to pharmaceuticals as it is to dispensaries? Also, what would a favorable ruling do to BLPG — how much does its competitive edge depend on essentially having exclusivity to the market, which would melt away if Federally chartered banks were suddenly no longer inhibited from taking cannabis deposits? None of which is a charting or technical analysis consideration. Posted 4 days ago
Rod David — Maybe BLPG long could be considered a hedge against an otherwise unfavorable ruling. Posted 4 days ago
recentiy03 — Really nice analysis–thanks, Rod. Using Rod’s parameters as a guide, what non-pharmaceutical companies come to mind? I can think of TRTC off-hand as one company that is planning on opening a number of dispensaries in Nevada in the near future, who else is there? This is essentially an open question, so if anyone has any other suggestions… Posted 4 days ago — “Edited”
Josey — I would think rescheduling would put GWPH and some other pharma’s up big if not through the roof. As far as the non pharma’s I will watch to see what happens. I would think all would move up something. Posted 4 days ago
Josey — I also think that Rand Paul will have an effect if he starts talking hemp and so on in his campaign in the future. Posted 4 days ago
Josey — I don’t know if anyone caught the news the other day that NIDA did a study on cannabis and cancer and said that it does help fight cancer. This is BIG and a start to rescheduling. To me with the Government now saying that cannabis has medical benefits, they would have to reschedule now. Posted 4 days ago
recentiy03 — Thank you kindly for letting me know about the NIDA study–I totally missed it in the news, and yes, that’s major news. I’m half-tempted to email it to Judge Mueller’s clerks. Speaking of which, I did a quick Google search and it appears the American media largely ignored the story altogether…surprise, surprise. Posted 4 days ago
Josey — recentiy03 – TRTC / I think that Nevada goes recreational through the legislative process instead of 2016 vote. IMO Posted 4 days ago
recentiy03 — I agree that it’ll happen sooner or later. I just emailed an article about the NIDA study to a couple of the lawyers on the defense side in the reclassification case, hope it’s of some use to them. Posted 4 days ago
fennecby — Ah, how I wish I’d taken you more seriously a year ago.
And when are alerts finally coming? Before Carthage or right after? Posted 2 days ago
Jo B — thank u Rod. I agree, let’s concentrate on those few that are in uptrends! and fingers crossed for Wednesday! Posted 2 days ago
Miss Kitty — I took Rod at face value this time last year when he said get out of the market and it saved me a lot of money and heartache. For his great timing call on when to exit the market, I’m grateful. I’m also looking forward to better times ahead and have no doubt when the time is right he will correctly time the market rentry. In the meantime, I watch and wait. Patience will be rewarded. Posted Yesterday
fennecby — PSTI seems to be hanging on a precipice of sorts, and Australia lending a saving hand today (MBLTY).
What would be a credible “off the precipice” level for PSTI? Close over 3.02?
(and I don’t mean “off the precipice” in the way of Roadrunners) Posted Yesterday — “Edited”
Rod David — Sorry, apparently the blogs are broken and my earlier reply wasn’t posted… Posted Yesterday
Rod David — PSTI — Connect the Feb 18 and Mar 25 highs, bisecting the interim higher high. That is “downtrending pivotal resistance,” and it is intersecting with today’s high (so far). Its break often requires at least one more test, interrupted by a dip. Its break is not assured, but its break would then target at least a retest of the interim high that was bisected in drawing the trendline. Posted Yesterday
fennecby — a) thanks – that’s helpful, but…
b) the Mar 25 high is lower than the Mar 24 high, which makes it 2 interim highs bisected – Mar 5 and Mar 25. So… could you be meaning to connect the Feb 18 and the Mar *24* highs? Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — Yep — thanks! Posted Yesterday
fennecby — well someone’s happy today. GWPH. Posted Yesterday
casjf — ISIS – creeping up over resistance, perhaps to attack previous highs. Current support & resistance? Posted Yesterday
Josey — Speaking of GWPH, what would be a good pullback to enter long? Thank You! Posted Yesterday
Rod David — ISIS — 76.66 was targeted, positioning the stock for a new upleg, and then something interesting happened (or didn’t happen, actually). Despite being a 6-point upday, then next session fell by as much, and closed back under the prior low without confirming the breakout (i.e. a second consecutive higher close). That reaction extended down sharply the next several days. There’s resistance at 68.75 and 70.50, whose recovery would put the rally back on-track. Otherwise, closing under 60.50 would trigger a new downleg Posted Yesterday
Rod David — GWPH — There is no attractive pullback to enter long, but there’s room down to 94.95 without reversing today’s surge back down. If tested, that had better recover quickly since already touching 97.75 resistance requires closing above it if the surge is valid. Posted Yesterday
fennecby — BCLI – 4.55 still a relevant level (from 2 weeks ago), I assume? There was quite a battle over it Friday and today. Seems the buyers have the upper hand for now, with sellers failing to hold its head under (the 4.55) water? Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — BCLI — They’re chipping away at resistance, but still haven’t actually broken out. I definitely agree with the characterization being a battle Posted Yesterday
fennecby — but the line in the sand is still @4.55, or has it risen? And will a green close today be considered confirmation on yesterday? Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — BCLI — The problem with yesterday’s close constituting a break above 4.55 is that recent price action already encompassed it intraday, and yesterday’s 4.63 close was under those recent intraday highs. So, volume patterns suggest the breakout still has potential to extend, but it can’t delay Posted Yesterday
fennecby — I think I get it, and I think the same stock was in the exact same position around a year ago, before a reverse split (and ultimately couldn’t break higher).
But because search technology has yet to be invented on this site, I can’t find your comments from back then… Posted Yesterday
fennecby — (and thanks) Posted Yesterday
fennecby — so… new morning, old stocks.
Where would be a good place to sell half the GWPH shares I bought at $80? Resistance at 92 (last Universe) is obviously long gone. Last high is where I should’ve sold half but didn’t – but are you expecting it to mount a serious resistance en route to last year’s all time high?
And BCLI again – with premarket action suggesting we can finally overcome the 4.55 hurdle, is your previous target of 6.15-6.8 still relevant, or has the fierceness of the battle changed it somehow? Posted 23 hours ago
Rod-David — GWPH — I would fine-tune my longstganding target to 116. Keep in mind this leg is pretty extended, having triggered above 82.15. Posted 22 hours ago
Rod-David — BCLI — The target is unchanged Posted 22 hours ago
fennecby — thanks X2. Posted 18 hours ago
casjf — CLF – is there a stop you recommend? Posted 22 hours ago
Rod-David — 4.80, just added it Posted 21 hours ago
recentiy03 — Is this a short squeeze of sorts? According to TD: Short Interest (% of float 03/31/15)=48.35% … I also see it appears to be an 8-month wedge break… I’m guessing both are factors in the trade? Posted 21 hours ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — CARA — Monitoring for a pullback to 11.77 Posted 21 hours ago
Miss Kitty — What is the stop loss on this trade? Sorry I see it is written above. Posted 21 hours ago — “Edited”
Miss Kitty — Ok Posted 21 hours ago — “Edited”
Josey — Oil on the move. Looking @ 54 next. Posted 21 hours ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — Folks — Marketfy isn’t reflecting the CLF position as open, so I’m unable to add a SL STP at 4.80. Traders know the only appropriate action to take when not able to control / access their accounts, and that is to go flat. I’ll give them a couple more minutes to figure out the issue, but after that I will exit the position while awaiting resoluition Posted 20 hours ago
Rod-David — Apparently, there’s a non-traditional solution for me to manage the position. Let’s give it a benefit of the doubt, and keep CARA on our radar, as well as OXIS closing back above .033 Posted 19 hours ago
KiteGradient — Woo hoo, nice to see the alerts! Any thoughts on CBDS with a sub $4 position? I think the rumor is widespread and the Big Johnson presidential announcement will induce some selling. Would he amazing if he announces on the Monday holiday. Posted 19 hours ago
fennecby — an alert! great.
missed it of course, busy living the life. will put a limit order.
what’s your target on it? Posted 18 hours ago
Rod-David — Near-term 5.80 and 6.10 Posted 17 hours ago
Rod David — What’s the thinking behind Johnson running that would induce CBDS selling? Posted 17 hours ago
fennecby — and is the plan to exit then, or else…?
(that’s re CLF, not Johnson. I don’t see the reasoning behind a sell-off on such a major promotion either.) Posted 17 hours ago — “Edited”
fennecby — Meanwhile, I’d be very interested in starting to initiate long term positions in 3D printing, with DDD and SSYS looking like they might be done with the selling at some point in the not-too-distant future (the former looks better, I think). So I’d appreciate it if you could put them on your radar.
ADSK as well, although that one’s never been selling really. Posted 17 hours ago
KiteGradient — Re CBDS: logic being the catalyst contributing to current surge is build up to the announcement. Probably won’t be as widespread coverage as Hillary or others but Gary will get someone airtime. Seems these pops get sold earlier and earlier in this environment, ie sell the news Posted 17 hours ago
Rod David — Got it… buy the rumor, sell the news. Posted 16 hours ago
Miss Kitty — CARA pullback to $11.77 now in play so is that a buy at this level? Posted a minute ago
Rod David — CARA — 11.30-11.45 pullback limit, 11.00 stop, targeting 13.80 and 14.65.

fennecby — any revised parameters on the CLF trade for those of us who missed it? better entry underneath 5.2?
(certainly not going to chase it) Posted 8 minutes ago
Rod David — CLF — No revisions. Higher highs would raise the stop or allow a pullback limit, which could be considered for entry. But not currently.

Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]

Links to ||
Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||

Happy Anniversary! Nonchalant anniversary? Not dispassionate anniversary. These are just some of the suggestions I found when searching out a word to describe the halfway point between happy and sad.

Because, “Happy Anniversary on being one year from the Marijuana sector top!” doesn”t seem appropriate. Meanwhile, I don”t think the prevalence of relatively cheap pricing should be cause for sadness.

Actually, the anniversary of my sector top alert was two weeks ago. I don”t want to diminish the impact of that call. Some subscribers took me at face value and exited. Some at least allowed their vision to include what seemed at the time to be the impossibility of prices not trending up let alone down. Others accused me of complicity with professional shorts. Good times, good times.

The anniversary that I”m recognizing this week has more utility than that warning. It was the first opportunity since then for a sector-wide rally. 

I recall well the day following last April 15. We didn”t miss the oversold technical indications and the targeted supports that were met into the prior close (”
many issues among our sector are at a decision point” morning of April 15). It was make-or-break time. 

And there was, in fact, a number of significant bounces through the week”s end. But a significant number did not last through the weekend.

My sector peak warning was useful once. The understanding and appreciation of an ongoing downtrend has been repeatedly useful. We don”t recognize that anniversary with the greatest happiness, but neither should useful knowledge be associated with sadness. Perhaps the best answer I found to what marks the halfway point between happy and sad is that they”re two separate emotions, not necessarily two ends of the same spectrum, so they are measurable separately.

That insight was on a web site for depression.

On a different, but related note, the sector”s next big development is probably a ruling on the constitutionality of cannabis being a schedule-1 drug. In case of any favorable development for the sector, will one stock react any better than another? Stocks that are in downtrends making a series of lower lows and lower highs could react well, no less likely than the few stocks in uptrends. Initially, at least. 

But what if the news is unfavorable? Stocks in uptrends would be vulnerable, but probably only temporarily. So, while it”s tempting to take at face value a 100% degree of confidence in there being a favorable development, let”s honor the right anniversary — respect the trend, and limit the bottom-fishing or knife-catching of stocks in downtrends, while overweighting exposure to issues already in uptrends.

There are two of the former category that have at least met a targeted support, and only recently so as not to coagulate there –CNAB (.425-.440) and SRNA (.105-.120).

Two qualify for the latter category without being extended — CARA (back above 11.25) — or currently retracing from being extended — OXIS (.030-.033).

Three others have attractive price patterns, but their sporadic volume trends prevent specifying price parameters — DIGP, MYHI, OSLH. 

Please share your thoughts and familiarity about any of the above issues in this post”s comments section.

Enjoy!

[BLPG comments below.] A quick note about the SURN and CNAB bounce setups I described during yesterday”s Livestox (one initiated by me, and the other in response to a chart analysis request)… Their strength today is appropriate, but their volume is lacking. The problem may be related to this being a Friday, so be aware of that performance stipulation when considering whether to hold-long through the weekend, or whether even to buy.

Also, there was an interesting question about what stocks might do better in case the Schedule 1 question now being considered were resolved favorably to the cannabis industry. My response is here, but there”s a follow-up question on the Activity Feed looking for subscriber input that I hope you”ll check out…

Which stocks stand to benefit most would be based mostly on how much their models depend on the scheduling. For example, is that as much an issue to pharmaceuticals as it is to dispensaries? Also, what would a favorable ruling do to BLPG — how much does its competitive edge depend on essentially having exclusivity to the market, which would melt away if Federally chartered banks were suddenly no longer inhibited from taking cannabis deposits? None of which is a charting or technical analysis consideration. Maybe BLPG long could be considered a hedge against an otherwise unfavorable ruling.