Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still trending down overnight greeted Wednesday’s open with a slightly lower gap that extended to fresh trend lows. That was  retraced into the noon hour, then probed positive territory. The open was just under Tuesday’s low to require being filled from above — which it was, before entering the noon hour. Closing above 1.1385 would signal momentum reversing up.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Already dipping into the 1188.50-1191.50 target area overnight, Wednesday’s gap down extended lower through the morning to attack 1182.50. The 4-day sequence suggests that Thursday will either not probe fresh lows or else recover from fresh lows, and in either case probe positive territory. A corrective bounce into the weekend would target 1208.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Even further compensation for the delay in filling the 4-week old gap back to 15.25 opened Wednesday sharply under Tuesday’s 14.97 low to 14.80, and collapsed down to 14.35. Tuesday was somewhat of a breakout, so this is somewhat of confirmation, an at least an eventual third lower close is likely — regardless of an interim corrective bounce.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s gap up extended through Friday’s 144-22 high to test 145-00, then reversed back under Friday’s high. Not closing above 144-22 Wednesday would suggest a top is in, and the breakout isn’t valid.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already greeting Tuesday’s post-close API data from a position of weakness and reacting poorly, Wednesday’s 50-cent gap down to 66.50 fell another $2 to fresh lows at 64.50 in reaction to the morning’s EIA report. Closing above 66.10 would signal momentum reversing up.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report isn’t being greeted from a position of strength. Tuesday’s premature probe of fresh highs, which barely qualified as a breakout, wasn’t confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Wednesday. Avoiding a deeper pullback Thursday — or recovering from an initially negative knee-jerk reaction — would be the only bullish scenario.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The decline resumed Tuesday after Monday’s weak bounce had consolidated Thursday night’s crash into the weekend. The pattern offers no buy signal, and any aggressively higher open would be likely to reverse back down.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s shallow bounce held a 38.2% retracement of Monday’s post-open drop. Resuming the decline without first bouncing any higher would suggest a low is near. Meanwhile, avoiding a second consecutive lower close has avoided confirming Monday’s breakout.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s shallow bounce held a 38.2% retracement of Monday’s post-open drop. Resuming the decline without first bouncing any higher would suggest a low is near. Meanwhile, avoiding a second consecutive lower close has avoided confirming Monday’s breakout.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower ranging Tuesday remained within Friday’s range, still not extending the rally, but also not rejecting it. At least a probe of fresh highs is likely, if not resuming the rally. A deeper dip has room down to 143-12 before signaling the trend is reversing back down.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Opening Tuesday above 67.65-67.90 would have triggered a buy signal if maintained through the close. But post-open action almost immediately began reversing down, and probed negative territory down to the 66.75 sell signal. Breaking either way would be credible for trending in that direction. Wednesday’s EIA is not being greeted from a position of strength.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
No pullback followed several days of consolidating narrowly in the target range that was met last week, before probing slightly higher Tuesday. That qualifies as a breakout, but no consecutive higher close Wednesday would greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Closing at fresh trend extremes on Friday all but ensures probing another extreme at some point on Monday. Which Sunday night did easily on continued Turkish Lira issues. Rallying in reaction to a potential softening of Turkey sanctions was short-lived, or at least corrected. There is no longer “unfinished business below,” but not yet a buy signal.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Two-three bounces last week each held relevant resistance while maintaining the pattern’s downside momentum. Monday’s gap down far below the range extended down intraday. Closing at or under 1201.50 keeps alive the break’s momentum, next targeting 1188.50-1191.50. And that could confirm Monday as a breakout.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Delaying repeatedly the outstanding attraction down to 15.25 had become likely to probe it much deeper in compensating for the delay. Sunday night’s probe did extend down to fresh lows under 15.00. Which qualifies as a breakout from the multi-session range, so a second consecutive lower close on Tuesday would require at least an eventual third lower close.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday moring’s dip back down to 144-00 fluctuated sideways into the afternoon, still not resuming Friday’s rally despite having the same catalysts of Turkey turmoil and stock market weakness. A deeper reaction would still have room down to 143-12 before reversing the trend back down.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s inside day was biased-up to reflect weak-handed buyers. Already weaker Sunday night, price slid further through the open and collapsed during the morning to fresh lows. No buy signal is considered in this pattern until closing back above at least a prior low. Which will make it difficult or unlikely for Tuesday to form a position of strength ahead of  Wednesday morning’s EIA report (let alone Tuesday’s post-close API).

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Overnight weakness fell slightly lower Monday morning, which wasn’t surprising after three consecutive sessions at recovery highs had failed to extend. But the dip, even if it were to extend deeper Tuesday, would be likely to recover because the same consolidation took so long to attempt rejecting its target area.