Saturday Review

Monday’s total solar eclipse probably won’t be the end of the world. That isn’t likely until next weekend’s meeting in Jackson Hole of the world’s Central Bankers and economic geniuses. They’ve rid us of the normal pains associated with economic cycles, price discovery, and bidless debt markets. Much more difficult will be their walking it all back. Or, explaining how they’ll accomplish that. Or, getting the rest of us to believe it… all without driving away equity buyers.

Jackson Hole resorts need not register their first guests before the symposium already impacts markets. Rumors and trial balloons may influence price action, but not necessarily bullishly. Which these past two weeks seem to be telling us. D.C. drama is uncomfortable to watch and global terrorism is sad and scary. Each can be a catalyst for market moves. But trends are influenced by economic anticipation. And as I describe in this week’s Saturday Review, that anticipation is quickly turning sour — and likely has more to come.

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The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
EXAS, FB, NFLX, BZUN, BIDU, SUPN, VRX, ADBE

good morning and welcome hit is Saturday it’s time for the Saturday review please just go ahead and post whatever you have if you have a question as I’m saying it saying something or comment I will get to the comment when I can and if there’s anything that you think I’m leaving out mentioned that but I’m missing one thing here sorry to seconds okay we are good to go so it’s Saturday long week really interesting week as promised as promised because of how the prior week ended and I can promise again that this is not done this is a very interesting time lot of stuff that’s going to be determined here I can’t say that it will have run its course by the end of this week we might get to a point where some stability can develop which isn’t necessarily what we want from a trading perspective but this time and it is a top has been a long time in the making and it isn’t necessarily done when there is still an opportunity let’s just refresh what we were talking about 1 week ago what are week ago we were looking at just to this point right here none of this and developed and there were two or three options for the market option one was to take the normal route and I say normal because normalized as in this is what the market what the rally I should say has been accustomed to doing in a situation like this with the near-term support or outstanding objective with so much selling pressure having been expended such a short time frame so here’s a gap could have fill that Gap that was as 24 25 25 Gap likely to be retested down to 2421 Embassy for 21 that was one option the normalized option for an ongoing rally come down fill that Gap test that support lot of lot of stuff here to work through and however much time would be spent there then work back to toward the highs maybe to new heights that was the normal eyes and that was off the table of mediately when the open gapped up also off the table immediately when the open door when the open didn’t plunge was the potential for plunging in this pattern that would not have been unusual since the since the entirety of this pull-back had been contained within that Gap up range if the market intended to work three or to avoid having to work through this chunk of stuff there was a very real possibility that Monday was going to gap down under it under the entirety of it say 2423 something bounce back end of the range and then recovered that was a very definite possibility there a definite possibility it’s a possibility as well this week we’ll come back to that of course I was off the table what was left on the table at Monday’s open was this Gap to return to one of two levels one of two which basically came in at 2463 that was the singular numerical representation of the higher priorities and I’ve had didn’t and things and it certainly tried to have it was influential if that didn’t end it then fill this Gap couple of calculable levels in here basically give us a range 2471 7350 and altimate Lee actually not just ultimately but eventually twice both this is with Globex Tuesday night 24 7325 was hit and that gave us another couple scenarios that we were able to anticipate 7350 being tested more thoroughly actually up to 74 intraday let’s go back without the Globex that was it that’s a correction and that is done and the market couldn’t wait could hardly wait to resume its decline so we get some information here here the prior week last week we are talking about this pivot reversal on Tuesday that is in an uptrend gapping down reversing intraday to a new trend extreme and then closing under the Gap but I gave us the clearest signal that we can get look at that follow through it wasn’t it was overnight immediate but not entered a immediately resuming on Thursday not intraday actually some lower lows here overnight that weren’t tested until this week what do we know about this leg versus that first leg this is not a slow retracement back down to the prior notice was not some big sudden stumble that Finds Its bottom Fishers and knife catchers to produce a balance and then kind of gradually comes back and decide yeah that is going to be alone in here we go this is not that again another normal pattern that we would see in an ongoing rally this was for all of its substantial or degree of pull back of drop in whatever. Of time it really didn’t develop so easily even the first session that got kicked it off was included a new hot the next session that continued it really spent the intraday trending up yeah Thursday reminded us where we were but Friday didn’t even test the overnight lows and just raining sideways that’s not this current week the prior week this week despite the obvious optimism the rejection of all that which was enhanced by these characteristics that I just described really got things back into the sell-off mode a much deeper much prefer just as substantial this is not just a retest of the prior love so let’s back off back out one well if you greater degrees this is there any one minute chart we have it yet reverse the trend down so there’s a lot of selling pressure being expended as I just described still Hope Springs Eternal even in the steepness and extent the degree of this drop the prior week still fought so finding its pockets of support all the way into Monday Tuesday Wednesday Wednesday morning and then coming to a realization it’s still has It reversed under a prior low we have an ongoing series of higher highs Wireless here’s a fresh low member that Trend change signal that was actually invalidated under 2459 for two consecutive sessions was recovered back above 24 skip session to equate to a trend reversal it just invalidated the degree of confidence we could have didn’t matter the that’s why the market had to come back aggressively to compensate for that detour but that’s one Trend change higher highs Harlow’s one of the elements of a trend change we need two of those so there is a lower high now we need a lower low got that we don’t know that that lower low is actually going to stand until we have a lower high which means we need another lover low we don’t know that we have a lower high coming if there’s any kind of Bounce at all until either we break under a prior low or bounce and break under this load it sure is shaping up to be and it’s the best opportunity or attempt there’s been at a trend change but the point is we can’t take off the table we can’t yet take off the table the potential for One More Bounce so in trying to narrow down the templates that are available to Monday to the week going forward there is potential for a balance we’re not assured of sliding through Monday at any point let alone gapping down which is one of the templates is it was it last week’s open if we’re not bouncing or at least firm and Firming Monday then Sunday night I should say that it is possible that the world just comes to a decision they don’t want to be the last one out or or any later in line than they already are and they drive a Gap Town which is not as big of a deal is it would have been last week last week the first week down off the high to immediately in the next week Gap under a big congestion like this now there’s been a correction now we’re closer and proximity and have actually chipped away at part of that truck sure not as big a deal the gap down under the entirety of it which essentially is 24 1224 1175 is the lower representation of this range 2412 the Earth 1996 and there’s no reason just being just to be prepared there is no reason why we can’t have a substantial falling out intraday falling out and two consecutive by the way substantial down days as a massive cleansing to the ongoing as I’m sure everybody knows this is one of the longest streak 7 Market rally without say a 1% intraday move counter-trend move to number of different things that I always equate to from these somehow it always comes back to equating to my bar tab that builds up Suddenly It’s a pretty big deal Day of Reckoning so where does that leave us for Sunday Sunday night in the Monday morning be very aware that when we come out of the weekend overnight action is indicating a gap down it should be taken seriously there’s no unfinished business below last week had last week had the overnight low Thursday night’s overnight low that had complexity to it to create a little bit friend extreme we were in a trend change signal that it was invalidated in the next couple days doesn’t affect that they required to retest retest is neutralized and not rejected there’s been a corrective bounce and it has been rejected so if Sunday night is telling us that the gap down it’s just specially significant Gap Town is indicated for Monday we should take it seriously Mondays are associated with crashes I don’t like using that word and I in fact when we seen where we’ve seen those types of sessions develop on Mondays they tend to actually ended a fairly well or at least better for buyers bottom Fishers at least for the day so I don’t think we can take direct and Allergy and look for a session long breaks not without some sort of a not without ending the bounce on Monday and and the headlines are going to change the course of the market or not going to come from the headlines that have driven the course of the market the drama that’s going on in Washington DC with the market was being moved by news of what Mario draghi of the ECB might say more than two weeks away so during this week as news comes or rumors or floated trial balloons perhaps of what might be said on Friday or over the weekend next weekend that would have an opportunity to move the market in the opposite direction I don’t know what it can do because I mean there is there’s two to some degree it not a great degree the possibility of not likelihood that while the drama and the terrorism maybe maybe simultaneous recurring simultaneous to prices dropping and maybe a catalyst as well there a catalyst in the same way that a pin pricking and overly inflated balloon is responsible for it exploding well it got overly inflated to begin with and so the Jackson Hole headlines or rumors or trial balloons maybe completing a story arc that already is involved already underlining lender underlying the market drop that as we get closer to that event or as we at least come out of some big Central Bank meetings that the market is uncomfortable with what can be offered to support it going forward we are seeing signs of insight apron so there’s a lot to be aware of as we end come out of the weekend but if we’re not indicated then the decline likely Extenze and if you’re not indicated flat it’s probably because we’re gapping down substantially this is not the kind of down to resume in clandestine ways to make it very obvious at a certain point and then let’s go back one more time to what I was describing along that point it didn’t make itself obvious here remember despite that gap down despite that big rally despite its big rejection to close under the gap down the clothes again in that 24/7 the next day that gap down and spend the entire session the negative territory increasingly obvious that this is going to be all at once updates after 1:30 Eastern typically right so is a bounce Monday still the likeliest or 50 50 sew in a normal in a normal low back or a normal correction normalized for the rally that we been in his on his early that a balance would be likely at 4 saying gapping up if we’re saying strong open and for saying strong morning or even upward bias morning none of that is necessary for a bottom a bottom could form from retesting Friday’s low in fact as we describe yesterday Friday is low because it developed and let me get to the overnight from last Thursday against the last Thursday approved under Thursday night program to Thursdays Lowe’s intraday Lowe’s and Thursdays intraday Lowe’s were substantial that was a substantial drop last last week the prior week I should say that extended down overnight but didn’t repeat Friday the market still not believing what was going on the entirety of yesterday morning developed in this is after Thursday night this week we tested that was Lowe’s the entirety of Friday morning didn’t just come in and and have some obligatory fresh low which by the way would be the normalized way that this rally this ongoing rally has been finishing off it’s it’s Corrections unnormalized pull back that was about to bottom and resume the rally would have come in on this you know neutralizing the attraction below and Friday morning just give those late to the late to the party sellers the retail players give them a little taste and then trap them and start the recovery into the weekend and it looks like in the market did that but not when we back off and look at timing because here’s that entire day of that would otherwise would have been some obligatory fresh low that the retail minded professional at the retail Market have because they’re suddenly waking up and seeing that this is no longer around and not realizing it’s the end of a pullback this would have recovered coming out of the bias apartment it didn’t this is the bias environment exit at 11:30 the entirety of the bias environment was spent under prior alone he’s our overnight was it was spent under all prior intraday loves this is an anchor or an albatross or dead weight or a stake in the ground and it did exactly what it was supposed to do yesterday and that is prevent to Rally from extending can prevent Corrections Corrections or normal if the break eggs to make an omelet you have to back and filled to decline so if this anchor is going to prevent this rally from extending and force it basically Doom it to failure has it done that not yet men’s retraced the rally but it hasn’t suffered any consequences yes I have news to Klein and hasn’t paid any price that open or the morning hadn’t already paid because of the timing of this in the morning having extended for so long remain under pressure for so long that’s an anchor we expected to be proud so good Monday morning also Pro but fresh low and recover that’s when we will know that this is extending or not in the near term if like I just described for yesterday it’s certainly possible on a Monday if we get some obligatory fresh low for the retail crab to feel good that they’ve gotten short or gotten out actually but the bias environment is exited back Above This anchor will start looking higher will start looking up for a couple 3 days hope will Spring Eternal Etc that will tell us that the bounce on Monday as possible or more likely Tuesday Westside fifty-fifty odds to that but if I see if we see that pattern then we can assign even greater odds to the potential for a bounce but no I don’t see the market doing that if it’s coming to quicker and quicker realization that were in the decline then that opportunity is getting less and less so question if there is a balance what would it Target 60th? Also how would it play in the context of a bear attacks can I bounce to go later on Monday which is another problem with trying to bounce at all but why we wouldn’t look for a bad snow in Monday we are in a bearish wed x Wednesday expiration which influences Friday afternoon and Monday morning and Friday afternoon did behave bearishly so we assume that whatever the signals were that or the inputs worth at the Wednesday expiration signal was picking up on Wednesday afternoon when it triggered barish passively barish aye barish we assume that it will also influence Monday morning and Monday morning by the way tends to be influenced more substantially and obviously more aggressively than Friday afternoon so if Friday afternoon was influenced by a barrage FedEx the Monday morning should be influenced by trending down on embarrass what acts as well doesn’t mean that we don’t Gap up or flatter down but Post open through the morning through the bias environment until it starts lapsing at the very latest 11:30 will be expecting price to Trend down so to what degree could price is there is a balance what would it Target before the bounce say gapping up and then the bear is watex takes takes effect 4950 250 – 25 is one big candidate that’s literally the Gap up who’s in the area it’s test and it can be probed considerably it’s test would be an area to start looking for any signs that the trend is slowing or size not participating as deeply but it’s all sorts of tricks that we can look for it here’s an example of one so let’s say we’re breaking under 2396 testing lower prioritize basically and this is during some timing window but we’re coming out of the timing window say it 11:30 and preferably 15 20 30 minutes prior to that we’ve already recovered back above that relevant level that’s going to tell us if we just hit a major level the market is trying to bottom and probably will be that it probably won’t find sellers or probably needs to find more Sellers from a bounce up here you know sometimes the price just gets out of whack and and sellers just decide it’s not worth it rather take my chances alright let’s look at the comparisons among indexes and then if anybody has starts we can look at those as well question can I go to what makes a passive signal versus an active signal an expiration week what level would have been considered an active barish wettech signal this Wednesday and there’s a number of bells and whistles involved but just generally so here’s where we were on Wednesday and Wednesday’s close let’s examine what made this passive one thing that I need to actually generate the signal is actually analyze for the signal is two consecutive prior sessions I need to see those they have to have some Conformity or just knocking for me sorry some continuity to them that there’s something being expressed in the signal in those sessions we can’t have one session that’s doing something up here and then the next session gaps down and totally different characteristics versus the prior range we’ve definitely got here and another bill or whistle had a relevant level we know 63 is is happening at the time what is the market doing at Wednesday’s close at or overlapping basically the upper end of that range the relevant range it’s actually involved in 63 still 463 is involved in it Henriques we’re not trending up trying to and family trying to Trend up and failing so try to be bullish and failing is almost Barrett it’s passively barish actively barish would have been either with or without this probe to have closed Wednesday under the lower end of that range that’s actively Paris so we’re sellers are actually through irrelevant timing window the clothes producing a new chart point not overlapping previous track points are not necessarily pushing and pulling right now buyers I from a standing stop they suddenly get all excited and produce a gap up they quickly meet at Target 74 so so we can’t it buyer’s could be sponsoring this move at the pleasure of strong hand and sellers that are not involved but being but patiently watching from the sidelines waiting for their opportunity to sell When Buyers are fully expended and I print this out and put it on the refrigerator oops Okay so passive and pass it is not necessarily we can’t what we’re looking for all we were looking for is and I should also say so why are these why are these strong handed sellers you know there’s trying to make a move perhaps or at least buyers aren’t able to sustain their break hire their attempt to break higher it’s a passive signal but it doesn’t mean that that these aren’t strong hands the strong hands are being passive they’re not actively pushing where should the clothes have been on Wednesday for Passive bullish it wouldn’t there wasn’t a setup for a passing bullish we weren’t going to have a pass at Busch the question is really what would Wednesday session have to have done to have been passively bullish and as an anti acid entire session so by the time we got two Wednesdays closed already been maintained and not overlapping not returned that would have been actively there was an opportunity for environment like this for example tiny this I don’t think so we do have an interesting pattern that those are often traced this has been the triangle pattern develops the last great Royal attributed to the fangs Facebook Amazon Netflix Google Apple Tesla so not regard you have Facebook is actually as become a laggard it has a lot of downside just to retraced this last up like just to come into lower prioritize there’s a 10% drop Timber trace this range back down to 148 and why not this Reigns’s last consolidation as already rallied 161.8 which is a big usual satisfaction buying pressure which means that the actual reversal signal is room down to 160 at this stage of the pattern we know there’s room down 165 before suggesting that were heading into this range Monday and Facebook will watch it for another 10 to help time we’re coming into basically habitats really where it matters we’ve got to get out of of 175 to suggest there’s anything higher coming and if it gets out I’ll give it all the benefit of the doubt to extend in that Justin definitely but infinitely that’s going to be a big area to reject closing of the 160 area and really at this point 175 as a stop to a short with of course the risk I have no idea what the what the fundamental or corporate side of this of the Netflix story is with the potential is of the if any of it being an acquisition candidate of course there’s always going to be a there’s always going to be the risk of something like that interesting double tap here double tops are made to be broken eventually which is helpful to know when they’re first reaction is down that eventually you’re going to break above the highset a question is is that basing in order to extend higher or is that a completion of a top Again ongoing series of higher highs and higher lows and it’s just absorbed of attempt to reverse the trend down that’s not to say it’s extending higher and definitely but that’s tough to bet against how much hiring could this extend is this an ATR this is this an 80 or is it not an ADRidea if it’s an 8 ER and explain some of the some Oddities that are going on in the charger in the pattern but I can’t get be reached on this at this level and I could see it extending before having an opportunity to get bearish on it 240 241 8542 the one thing that would turn me bearish on the stock would just be a fresh low on 231 closing under 31 head to the degree that that it’s an 8 ER of course just want to take that into account give it a couple consecutive sessions of such Behavior right by do yeah buddy was desperately in need of a new high any fresh I in here gets it out of major morass this is some ways a head-and-shoulders pattern is that optimal that had is just a little shallow but it is otherwise that’s symmetrical as I would need it to be I called a pivot reversal Head and Shoulders too loud to have an angle but it really out to pull back to 194should I let me get a trigger level here 215 – 1450 has minimum at 2:07 181 pull back potential and that quicklyright supn and it says supernus Pharmaceuticals supernus PharmaceuticalsGreat Scott double top made to be broken you don’t know if it’s going to be on the first pull back or on a deeper one but eventually eventually double tops tend to be recoveredsoon as a lot of resistance in here there is potential that a substantial Peak is being made I would have much more bullish and had a bullish attitude toward the shop on a new High clothes it’s not that it’s any greater risk of not producing that new High clothes in might have had a bad end of the week just basically because the broader Market was falling apart but my big concern right here is just that a lot of upside is being fulfilled and let me just get drill down on that hire close so I really want to call it 4820 or 48 I would expect a test to the 48 area expected to the 48 area it’s really have that test resolves if this is a bearish if this has a bear’s future near-term then it’s going to test 48 and clothes back under the prior High Maybe not immediately you know maybe from maybe from a little deeper dip first maybe from a little deeper first but test 48 and then or test sorry to pry or high which is for 6:50 and close back under it those are the bearish developments test 48 either immediately this week or later from the deeper pull backotherwise a deep purple and meanwhile I should save for this setup the deeper pulled that the deeper pulled that could Target 3825 so until this actually broke under 38 3825 while there’s still potential for this to be topping it will not have reversed price down not yet got to close under 38 to indicate momentum the trend is reversing down neither here nor there toppy pattern and or consolidation actually that starts getting toppy when it rejects it still is a fresh rejection of that still has a good opportunity to resume that I definitely like the volume improving into the probes of prioritize but if it the broader Market environment doesn’t let that happen there’s room down to what 4525 we’ve got something deeper to the downside underway this is where that hole rally though starts to run into trouble and that’s breaking under 138 55 13850 stay away from with don’t break under 13850 and the rally remains intact even though it could be pulling back to 13850 in the interim THX thank you will take a look at it

This coming week could resolve last week’s decline in the same pattern as has been the rally’s preferred method. Which is to fill its month-old gap and then return to the highs. That’s the bullish scenario. There are two bearish scenarios, each diametrically opposed to each other in development and in timing. But both with ugly consequences.

We discuss those in this week’s Saturday Review. First we describe several helpful setups that guided our analysis to anticipate and to avoid what wasn’t plainly visible to most market participants.

 CLICK HERE TO WATCH

The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
ARNA, SHOP, NVDA, AMD, GDX, VZ, VRX, AMZN, NTES, PCLN, PLUG, COL, ULTA, UA, DPZ

welcome audio okay we doing all right on that let me know if there is if it’s loud enough I made an adjustment earlier anyway it is Saturday it’s time for this Saturday review interesting little market this week you know we didn’t talk last week among the reasons was it wasn’t really anything to update this is what it look like at the end of last week we had ongoing ranging uptrending support off of the high the high that had been printed at an open and rejected just rejected a little would have sufficed to form the pattern but it was rejected a lot looks like a key reversal gapping up in an uptrend to a fresh high and closing closing negative it’s not a key reversal because the prior couple of sessions had ranged so it didn’t offer that it didn’t offer that immediacy the reversal in fact it didn’t reverse immediately had an opportunity to one more session down one more lower clothes would have told us something was developing for some reason but instead the ranging began the ranging could have resolved down within a couple of 3 days and still been closely tied enough to the initial key reversal like session to suggest that there was still something being absorbed by the market or processed again though it wasn’t and we extended actually this is just ranging it is a triangle but it did effectively Breakout on Monday with the first of many first session among many that had not gapped up that are not gapped up and reacted down weather immediately here’s an example after trying to press higher here’s an example holding up for the morning here’s an example any case no more Gap up and rejection Gap up was actually avoided on Monday Sunday night and traded higher and Trend it up through the day that was a we recognize that immediately as being different a difference in the ranging and consider the market to be on the move and also that was just structurally or for a pattern in other words there was also the session having gained traction noon hour being exceeded the bias environment exit by its environment hiding exceeded at the final hours entry so that was I going to extend night or the next morning regardless of the opening print in fact the opening print was a gap down on Tuesday Tuesday’s gap down recovered and Trend it up turn it up quite a bit remember what happened on Tuesday morning or bias up signal with 78-75 putting in to play it on which set there being some extension it just tells us how it’s going to result hand extended quite a bit looking for anyway so long as 78-75 didn’t hold was 84 with potential than 90 and we got to 8850 and then things started turning South and because of a couple things because 78-75 needed to be retested because there was potential to retest the 10:15 printed self which train go by as trending off in his retraced as well that’s 7550 and that would have put us in the negative territory we also knew pretty early that there was potential to extend down sharply in fact the session went on to form a pivot reversal because he ended up Trent which the prior session on Monday barely managed to make make that an uptrend in an uptrend gapping down rejecting the gap down to probe a new trend High rejecting the trend hi to close back under the initial gap down pivot reversal and that’s a pattern that tends to extend immediately and tends to extend substantially and it did extend immediately overnight didn’t really extend immediately the next day this is Wednesday trying to avoid that but Wednesday didn’t do anything but we traced back to Tuesday’s close in fact Tuesday’s close cash session and features closes looks like they were filled hear that was actually after the close after the cash session close and then another set up that helped us help guide our decisions on Thursday by virtue of having rallied into the clothes rallied in last 60 90 minutes especially or last 60 Minutes at least final hour and the afternoon low being contained within the bias environment in this case within the bias and window of the bias running laps in 2:30 to 3 buy that set up the next day could have gapped up and I would have been irrelevant those two features but the next session Gap Down Under that afternoon low hand that triggered a session long or form deception long decline search along the client it says every intraday timing window with one exception is going to at least test or probe the prior timing Windows love and usually that’s the noon hour on Thursday it happened to Ben the bias environment that didn’t approve the final or didn’t probe a prayer timing windows low and then the final hour picked up on that which brings us into Friday in the interesting thing about a session on decline while helps to call that session also tends to follow through the next session so we had a reason to suspect that we were going to probe even lower on Friday and we didn’t not initially Friday and with the trend being down Friday morning tried to Rally here’s another interesting feature to Market Behavior and it has to do with Fridays and that is Friday mornings don’t always try to accomplish something when they do if they fail they don’t always try in the afternoon or don’t always retry that in the afternoon but they will fail Within most circumstances and here is Friday we can tell it’s trying to do something with it was trying to extend the decline or trying to reverse it in this case reverse it it failed and we have a couple metrics and tell us and failed when is that the bias environment what was entered at 10:15 here was exited at 11:30 down here and trended down the bias environment did not succeed at reversing the trend and more so it tried it was an or I should say anymore so it was temporarily successful before failing it didn’t just fall flat so that didn’t tell us that the afternoon was going to try to reverse the trend but we knew that any attempt to do so would likely Fall as well and this is interesting what’s good of the one that it here this is interesting timing because we were willing to give it a benefit of the doubt we can we there is but I say under most circumstances when Friday morning tries to accomplish something and fails and retries it in the afternoon it will fail as well when it doesn’t it can be very substantial if it’s going to succeed at breaking an arm there’s usually a huge payoff to that so the inflection point at 2444 25 was probed number one failure no higher than its first three minutes hand number to failure that it stretched the rubber band stretch the rubber band Only serve to stretch the rubber band not to break out and number three failure was the timing the timing was not at 2:30 when the buys Furniture in elapsing but within when we came within view of the Bison bourbon lapsing so pretty aggressive Vine pretty impatient head to 15 to 20 breakout occurs and that’s fine there’s nothing wrong with that so long as it is maintained it 2:30 if the market make some move if sponsorship up or down makes an effort at the preliminary exit not at 2:30 but when 2:30 comes within view 10 or 15 minutes earlier for the market makes an attempt that isn’t persisting through 2:30 that will have stretch the rubber band this stretch the rubber band and snap back down as exactly what we’re looking for the description before we even got the 2:30 and the minimum objective was to retest or just get to the other end of the range the other end of the range was 24 36 happen to be 24 36 25 was the mornings bias down signal so pretty significant support just one more thing about Friday’s it is difficult very late in the day to do something I really the same thing it’s really difficult late in the day or in the afternoon to do something that hasn’t been done earlier let alone something that was tried and failed to be done earlier that tried and failed to be done was to launch a rally that had failed in the morning so difficult to break under a level that held in the morning so that’s where we’re at with one more feature to point out red the lower end of a range sort of or I’m starting to rain so far sort of but this doesn’t reflect the one more feature is even lower Wednesdays next and down it is ineffectual optimism because it quite literally within an hour or two of the open didn’t take over the Vuitton from what was a pretty barish race being run run on still producing fresh Lowe’s again an hour or two before they open still exclusively negative territory Not only was not extending that optimism Not only was trying to reverse it optimism he was ineffectual optimism because that attempt to reverse those attempts to reverse didn’t succeed so we’re sitting here with ineffectual optimism at the lower end of a substantial decline a lot of lot of perceptions out there that the that they declined was contained into the weekend it is not a sign of strength sign of strength could have probed fresh low and recovered it back up of irrelevant level Friday did not probe any relevant level below and hold it and let alone rejected by retracing back above some relevant level it doesn’t mean Monday can’t do that bounce back to or through some relevant level but it would be coming from this anchor weighing it down it would be coming from this structure that’s already been through a clothes without recovery so we’re absolutely not looking at that as being a low or the bottom it is on a 18 minute chart and there’s are pivot reversal day which is another interesting remember complex triangle complex patterns here’s the ongoing trend essentially and here’s a triangle and because the triangle stop short of the prior hi its resistance is here it doesn’t make use of this leg patterns should normally begin at an extreme so normally this pattern would begin here here’s a leg here’s away here’s away years leg how many legs usually no more than usually three or five legs so normally we get all the way back to that Pryor High informed that pattern a continuation pattern and extend resume this is a complex pattern because it doesn’t include this Pryor High it doesn’t include that leg so Dad some complexity and often a complex pattern or not often but this is how complex patterns resolved they get on with their continuation as they normally would but then there minimum objective is to retraced back to the low of that pattern and the more abruptly the more aggressively the more durable so here’s our basically this was our last spot of the trending the last high of the trending the discounting for and ticks essentially getting Anna to 6180 or in its range and then reacting down that is the e s in the top are we in a bear Market necessarily or is it just a correction it certainly has potential to be just a temporary correction there’s a lot of stuff down here to work through or even if it’s just the first leg of a bear Market her even if it’s even if it is a bear Market it could just be the first leg and will be followed by a an up leg one thing about about a bear Market is that it tends to last briefer tends to be briefer than a bull market it’s really a tough assessment to make in this pattern and will be tough and won’t be valid a valid assessment to make until breaking back under any prior low until there’s another words actually a trend reversal that we have a trend reversal signal that did trigger this week as far as prioritize and their interim Lowe’s being broken and I’m going to go over that in a moment remember the ongoing series of higher highs and higher lows as soon as that’s broken once is a trend reversal tempt when it’s broken twice it’s confirmed two different kind of Confirmation and just confirming that first attempt but more specifically I’m referring to here’s a leg and it’s pulled back here’s a leg and it’s pull back if this pull-back stop short of closing under that prior low every time there is a new high and its interim Louis broken there’s a new trend change signal that can be building on a prior signal if this pull-back stop short of that it can probe it can even close under at once but if that’s rejected then that next trenching signal doesn’t arrive meanwhile we do have a trend change signal they were already dealing with this week Andra call the last one we were doing with his back hereplay nearly was narrowly avoided new trend I I close pull back new trend High actually High clothes back here and in the interim Louis broke this narrowly avoided being a trend change signal because it was only probe in the clothes were covered it recovered that low it recovered that close even recovered the upper and or as we were set at the time it was overlap in the upper end of that range so it wasn’t as powerful of a rejection but pretty powerful is rejections go and kept us looking for new highs now we have a similar setup in that here’s a new high or here’s a new High clothes whichever interim pull back here’s a new High new High clothes closes higher than the clothes is higher than the high so we’ve got the basics for the setup and we have an interim low do we have a clothes under the interim low and of course as we already know the answers yes so there’s a trend change signaled on thurs on Thursday by closing under the interim love that can only be rejected more than a confirmation is a lack of rejection the confirmation doesn’t require a second consecutive lower close the confirmation requires not recovering not recovering the trend change signal in the trenching change signal was at least this prior low and this prior level 57 essentially not recovered so we have it confirmed or not rejected Trend change signal which says eventually at least a third lower close maybe 30 lower closes but if there’s an immediate balance on Monday or next week or for the next couple of weeks it’s still likely to resolve down unless there are two consecutive higher closes above that trenching signal the trenching change signal we have to acknowledge may play itself out so quickly so gressive Lee I’m in this is a lot of follow-through it is certainly possible not usual but possible that the trend change is already fulfilled will know that and one and only one condition and that is if the trend change signal itself at 2457 is recovered for two consecutive sessions until then it can be recovered on Monday rejected on the next recovered on and on the third day rejected on the next long as it’s not recovered for two consecutive sessions we’re looking for an eventual third lower clothes at least if not 30 Little Closer we also had a Breakout very important feature or interesting what was it no real movement no net movement and even Tuesday’s huge probe above the upper end of the range closed around 2472 even Wednesday’s probe or immediate follow through that spent the entire session and negative territory closed attacking attacking Tuesday’s closes 2471 and change so that means Thursday was a break out I’m going ranging multi-session range Thursday was the first break out Thursday was the first break out Friday did not confirm we were trained change signal but they’re not rushing to fulfill it so we’ve got two opportunities here looking forward to Mondays open and they are of course diametrically opposed they couldn’t be more diametrically opposed what is that because we have a trench change signal because of the ineffectual optimism Friday there is that we know there’s large actors were sitting at the lower end of a range so the next lower of ejected has to be substantially lower to get into the next range there’s an attraction down here it’s not an end-all-be-all to the decline but it’s a gap that has yet to be filled as most breakouts are retested a gap that was left out standing back to essentially 24 25 25 and even that isn’t likely to be the low I mean it’s likely to be included in the low but some sort of the retrenchment back into this range to at least 21 if not deeper so we know that there’s a lower lows out there when I say diametrically opposed that’s not one of the two diametrically opposed possibilities that would be the most bullish scenario to quickly neutralize the attraction below and then to for that session to develop into something that absorbs it and spits it back out closes higher the diametrically opposed setups one would be very unborn once again as deceptive as the top was it would be unfair would be the least foolish because it would fail to recover 2457 for two consecutive sessions but it would try for one there’s a gap up here doesn’t have to be filled it’s not a deal killer another words to leave it outstanding but if we started rallying that’s really the objective is 72 hiring for Lowe’s in here at cetera that only delays the inevitable it would be a close about 57 for one day and only one day it doesn’t mean that we close at 72 that can be largely rejected before the clothes if not fully whatever session that were to develop on but we would leave unfinished business below and for coppins Dan to compensate for the delay would be unlikely to hold that Gap when it filled it would more likely in some way or another mentally work its way through that last consolidation diametrically opposite of that is the most bearish scenario near trip it would literally gap down under the entirety of this range maybe to the lower quadrant but it wouldn’t be long before it were like 2420 literally opening 2420 literally gapping down 20 points or more pain extending down from there on Monday 20 points is not a lot when we consider that this whole range from 88 Dan 231 developed in 3 days 2 days 2 and 1/2 days 20 points is not a lot 20 points is a is 38.2% less than 3.2% 38.2% of the leg here is 24.23 points capping down 24 and 23 points to 2417 very possible that’s the diametrically opposed near-term barish most Bears scenario it just gets on with it and it’s not then it’s not the usual way top might form it’s also not the normal way that I knew down leg would get underway or new durable reversal that’s going to be a very productive this is a unusual scenario the way the market has been LED Higher by its nose yeah and that leading that fed leading seems to be unwinding and the perception of it on winding is being realized on a massive scale so I’m not going to let it gab outstanding especially if a gap is being created not just by opening under the prior clothes but opening under the prior consolidations range that Gap can say outstanding forever so if we do get down 23 points on Monday that gets us through here and probably gets us through here on that leg not as early the same day but that’s that’s way 350 take it sits down and more prior lids very slippery slope there are no lower prioritizing here that haven’t already been tested as support there’s a lower priority tested as support there’s a lower Pryor High tested and support down training resistance Gap up filled extended down training resistance Gap up probably soon to be filled extended or avoid feeling that just a bounce back and then resolved down more substantially or don’t even bother bouncing back don’t even bother filling it just gap down under its structure and head for the next two or three lot a downside questions calculated based on the use of course you’re going to be making the change play pattern forming where break out Thursday times are break out Wednesday break out Thursday not confirmed on Friday there’s a Ford a pattern that would try to break at again tried to resume the break out on Monday and then not be confirmed on Tuesday so there is that pattern that does the would truly be within the norm to Trend down further instead of immediately bouncing so there’s a number of features that do suggest lower on Monday regardless looking outside of the market just looking at the Press like me Baron’s that came out today is not as best as I could be but barish it’s highlighting all of the guru’s that have been on the tape of the last couple weeks or more saying that they were pulling back or buying puts or whatever they were doing that that has just as much credibility today as it did months ago so that suggests that it’s widely accepted belief already which at least in the near-term could mean that it’s already priced in so corrective balance before extending down in his substantial way it’s really possible the least likely is always going to be that crash that big gap down and it literally it is we look at the bounces as being manipulated as being the PPT plunge Protection Team coming in or central banks now supporting the market but that manipulation goes both ways and a concerted effort or lack of effort but concerted among the central bank’s not to support I can’t imagine that the partners in crime are going to leave each leave one or another and holding the bag and instead they would all step back and Unison coordinated that gets us aren’t huge gap down 23 points sounds all possible the likeliest is always going to be the most historically predominant and that is to probe lower fill that Gap to 24 25 and lower and hold it and launched another recovery League question that we fail the probe lower than Thursday during the day Friday suggest lower Monday to will just suggest lower eventually gives contacts to Friday Friday is a his nfx of optimism and that tells us the Thursday is low will eventually be proud to be test and that is pronounced to Rally the trend was up but as you can see not from lower levels it had been raining sideways ID yet to produce a fresh High until that Tuesday definitely there was rotation into safer safer stocks into more liquid more reliable in their earnings expectations Etc head out of and kids as well as e s so nq’s never returned to that Pryor High that yes finally probed on Tuesdayinteresting inverted Head and Shoulders on nq’s if nq’s don’t join e s in lower Lowe’s on Monday not that he has will be making load of those would it be else is making lower Lowe’s on Monday if nq’s or only showing off to their low holding Thursday’s low then we’ll have our answers to the resolution will be looking for that bounce after Monday’s session nothing about the decline tells us that it is counter-trend that it had that it’s been it’s just a big case of Miss pricing in an ongoing uptrend we certainly don’t have that indication all right do we have any stocks any other questions there’s Arena which which we started tracking down here has it was calling on the attempt to resume the inverted Head and Shoulders my pull back limits MaidPro bag limit 2125 tested in reaction earnings might get down 1850 1875 doesn’t have to and closing back above 2365 says the Rally’s resumed Shopify looks like this is a critical support area no reason why I shouldn’t be on going and we have a complex triangle notice of develops under the high gets that 61 8 in there I really have to regard you would have really need this I really have to regard a clothes under the lower end of that support range as being very bearish opening print doesn’t require being it has to be under those and then there Titan video and post any stocks that you want to have analyzed I’ll do two from everyone and circle back around so Nvidia my 261 8 extension of the relevant pattern the controlling pattern has been fulfilled and it’s been influential the basically 170 I think their earnings came in well or pretty strong but you know where in a new market was there a warning of some sort I didn’t get the whole story on Nvidia I just know the no the event but any case these are the pullback objectives that we’ve been discussing pull back up jective one is about 147 pull back objected to was about 1:30 is leading a gap outstanding so it wouldn’t be surprising I don’t know the path down but so long as 165 isn’t recovered the path remains down the trend change your Mains and play but I can’t dismiss the potential for testing 165 for filling that Gap the for resolving down or for this first test 147 to launch that Gap fill above can’t dismiss that potential AMD so we can do away with this by signal up here because it has never materialized or nothing durable or is already played out it’s fullback Target down its inflection point here at 1370 had an opportunity to inflect up and did notand now it’s gone from this is a this is a relevant pattern and to go from one end of it to the other end of it on a closing basis is essentially a trench change yeah and it’s in it’s responding to All the Right levels so the downside of ejected here is 1080 downside of ejected is 1080 so long as 1270 or 13 isn’t recovered so long as 13 isn’t recovered the objective still outstanding his to bleed from investment perspective especially now that get back at about 13 called 1320 13 that’s not enough to say to still need to get out of 45 before I assume that has been pretty influential in the past and so iscan I get one more beer in hereso ever since this leg played out that was likely to recover from this area it hasn’t really recovered that’s not to say it’s not under accumulation but if this is downtrending resistance than this is a consolidation pattern right if this is that accurate is downtrending resistance then this is a pattern and as with all consolidations volume should contract throughout and then expand suddenly on the break out and expand into trending so here’s the beginning of that pattern volumes seems to contract at least connecting the hives we can eyeball it and as soon the same I think is it breaking out here it needs to be it really doesn’t have time to mess around and since it is starting to try breaking out it needs to continue breaking out if it pauses Midstream it’s going to fall off the torch basically so I really want to see better volume than this though it’s rising for sure over the last several sessions but is it really Rising 2 irrelevant level it hasn’t yet so if you can get out of 24 on sharply expanding volume of relevant levels to irrelevant agree then we can give it every benefit of the doubt that this pattern this descending triangle is breaking hired this hitting Drago don’t always break down the descending really just refers to which way it’s oriented but that’s a Line in the Sand above and below of course at 21 Lawrence Road 2125 Etc so we watch gold or watch The Daily spot blog post if you’re not watching gold especially when it gets to 1305 see how that results Verizon interesting leg I think it gets to 5045 at least regardless of the ultimate resolution should get to 5045 at leastas far as that being near-term really has to hold 47-47 20 so pull back on the right now is 4720 under 4720 the objective becomes to fill this Gap hold 4728 preferably don’t even think of 4720 and 5045 remains intact the ultimate resolution after that we’ve still got objectives above it 5252 30 in the minimum right now I would say to 5045 but if that’s playing out then I would so long as fullbacks old I wouldn’t see why couldn’t get to 5230 alright is that Priceline by the way after Neddy’s long time trying to dig out about getting the volume on the recovery and we haven’t gotten a trend reversal either Trends being comprised of down transit is lower lower highs and we’ve got definitely an ongoing series of lower highs bounce like any bounce maybe maybe the problem is this is the last and that hire hire Lohi it doesn’t develop until above that develop so this is not a doesn’t look like it’s still holding these prize in the downtrend volume not being any help call meet the 261 clothes under the 10 73 and that held the Whole Foods acquisition back to the Rangers lower end so it was pretty much yeah there was a but a brief one so it’s back in the throes of this pattern that’s a topright Nettie’s has been a pretty orderly Advance as consistently on going as it’s been always concerned about betting against something like that the question did this just get caught up in the market you know it hasn’t done anything bad and Qs haven’t been any ex hasn’t done it self siliceous identify it as a difference here between a temporary pull back and something deeper still the context of just to pull back but deeper okay so 277 as an opportunity to serve as the low what was the event leading to the volume on Thursday that was an earnings was it that was earnings it wasn’t really being greeted from a position of weakness which would make me suspect that the reaction down is temporary and if it’s temporary reaction should hold to 2740 s test otherwise under to 6150 not as soon as it straight line but we’re talking about 168 180 in any case back above 30235 good signal at the rally is resumed who was earnings yes oh peanut wasn’t really really been grated for the alright not a good day Tuesday in my professional opinion so pull back pull back limit or you can sell signal 1964 was there any acknowledgment of that intraday to slice through it and that wasn’t the gap down that’s not his friend interesting lower price so it’s really tough to stage 1 to stage one is to enterlooking for any signs of accumulation really like that big volume at the low so I’m not considering any follow-through to be just noise what was being retraced by each leg so we’re really working our way to by proxy through this consolidation all the way back to these higher prices at 2:55 to 60 and they proved influential the question is can we get through them as well if I were flat this stock and looking for a place to buy I want to see a close-up of 240 24250 I’m going to see a close above to 4250 not really charging 295 I mean that’s a pretty big break out of that happens to validate this pattern as being just temporary a continuation pattern on the way to higher highs says there’s a much higher Highs coming but this stage I really want to see 245 250 recovered and Lexie volume expand on that volume has been contracting otherwise you know I don’t mean to be bearish I just because it cut in half when you’re doing with easy especially with this Gap outstanding night on Rockwell Collins is a really it was already getting us telltale signs of wanting to put in a lake like this fascinating it’s happening this week of course but running Corrections sort of running correction definitely you know the stock can’t be bothered with a lower low while it’s correcting it’s in such a hurry to extend higher a lot of patients are under the news if whatever the news is already out but it should have room to 138yeah the next lake or this current leg if this does turn out to be a flag or other form of consolidation then it should extend to 138 Legends totally set out the market acquisition rumors yesterday makes more sense cats falling apart as well but I don’t really have in this pattern nothing anywhere nearby that would indicate momentum pull back quite a bit you know we can but a trend reversal signals a long way offpretty relevant support at 1720 area that it is probing under it better reject that pretty quickly and it still can’t I mean it’s been a while actually since it printed but noticed that it’s just the one day really and no follow-through so almost any early strength early session strength would be credible for extending higher almost any release session strength say above 1750 would be credible for extending hire for indicating that this was a false Breakout we can get our preliminary Buy Signal down there but meanwhile the nearest is 2060 dpz so it’s not by much I think you get a free pizza for thatanother earnings reaction is that right cuz again not a not a position of weakness really that’s why it had to get down bus been a huge shock or big mess tell the right levels yeah I know these are lower prioritize natural support having tested it back ab ove 204 50 would indicate the Rally’s resume and I don’t just mean back to the house I mean the rally will have resumed I mean at least to fulfill this to 24 but probably more just because of the substantial reaction when it wasn’t premeditated I can’t really get a get any closer on a bicycle there may be some stuff that has to be worked out here to the downside something surprising happened to the market and we could head down to 161 area I can’t say that’s a Target they tend to be targets or met but this could back and filled of the 161 area before resuming the rally I would lower the bicycle and be able to lower the bicycle quite a bit on any fresh low but there’s room to 161 below alright have a great weekend