Saturday Review

Bullish WedEX. New trend high close on a Friday. Expiration. FOMC policy statement AND quarterly Q&A. Rosh Hashana holiday. Rally, or top? These aren’t the only influences on this week’s price action. I put them all into the Yahtzee tumbler to see this week’s possible templates, and what specific price action will tell us which template is tracking… P.S. The 3-index comparison must be seen to appreciate a concern that is suddenly developing.

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The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
ARNA, FEYE, AMZN, FB, NFLX, TSLA, EFX, BCS

okay good morning and welcome I apologize for the little late start but it is Saturday and it’s time for this weekend Saturday review and as you can see were higher in fact es extended after yesterday’s Cash session close the cash session clothes that equated to 2490 750 having touched 98 added those couple of extra points post close the maintenance as I said when the breakout was was confirmed at some point this leg this structure here here here at 2,500 and eventually 2500 2501 written not this early all over it but in a little spots that I check so we got there you don’t see it on the intraday chart but it has printed and it is going to be greeting sort of Monday’s open first of all it is just post clothes action that guy that’s there secondly it is over a weekend so it might not be influential Monday or that influential in the market was trying to get there before reversing down it may not behave as if it actually got there it may still be attracted up to it and that attraction being outstanding over the weekend they serve as momentum a vacuum that needs to be filled just to help keep the story alive over the weekend but as far as fulfilling on Mondays confirm Breakout remember when we last talked on last Saturday this is a Distributive pattern and it still is nothing changes that that this prior week the Labor Day week last 3 days where distributive that could have resolved down immediately having been distributive tested the Labor Day low and then off to the races from there to the upside instead the rally has resumed and without delay by gapping up above that multi-session range over the weekend which again over the weekend isn’t necessarily the same sponsorship but that doesn’t really matter if it’s confirmed the following session two consecutive Hunter closes above the multi-session range put into play and eventual third iron clothes doesn’t have to be immediate we could have had a downdraft pulled back in the interim didn’t but could have that’s where that knowledge of that third higher clothes outstanding becomes useful most useful instead the next next several sessions this doesn’t look like a rally doesn’t have that testing new highs new Highs are being chipped away almost grudgingly almost when would say pessimistically from a contrarian perspective potential English leaving unfinished business from a Distributive days I had remembered that previously instead of on that Tuesday coming back from Labor Day six weeks old on that leg we be looking for the movie extended we’re not hey can happen but it’s not a requirement because the market took time to form a Distributive base to launch that leg from that makes its buyers weekend and so we’ve got some sort of conflicting signals or assessments basically that the that the base from which last week’s rally was launched is distributive not stable week handed or indicating that the sponsorship of the brake higher is weak and it and we’ve got a pessimistic Behavior not so much as because it is actually and finally we have confirmed split the difference between the weak base and by which may begin from gapping down so that the morning bounces maybe can buy Gap it up so that the morning extends any case by Monday’s close if not Tuesday morning this is in the case by the way how are potentially extending higher or the path higher being substantially into the 2500 2500 handle 2541 25 50 in that event this leg is probably incapable of extended or extending my tire maybe it gets to this parallel uptrending resistance 2503 I’ve got at least 25 or one now as a likely touch but something on the order some sort of behavior like this immediately on Monday Monday morning and left to its own devices I had a friend since Wednesday’s fomc meeting or policy statement that is and by the way the quarterly fed share press conference always fun some sort and I don’t need to draw this straight down as if that’s out of Market behave but extending down anyway even if only to test by proxy the origin the break above the distributive range I know this looks like a air pocket because there’s not a lot of trading they’re actually that’s not what makes it in your pocket air plants are areas or stretches that have been thoroughly tested so there’s actually where you see thin trading or less trading that’s actually a lot of support so that would suffice however a hard-fought that was whenever bounces maybe FMC wear to bring out and yes good point Russia Shawna is Thursday it’s Thursday and Friday but the predominantly Market participation is thinner on Thursday much there on Thursday probably not going to be too heavy on Friday anyway so if the Market’s going to get any kind of a counter-trend move out of the way it tends to do that not on thinner participation but ahead of it it’s the thinner participation that prompts position or repositioning so that’s the one path down if not the likeliest pat-down is it go ahead and probe higher of course Monday’s Monday mornings bullish wed x influence would help but Monday mornings bullets wed x influence doesn’t require gapping up or prevent gapping down before trending up during the morning but that’s one potential to extend higher first of course capping down to whatever degree weather it’s to these priorities for the week lower there’s a gap at cetera bouncing through Monday morning and then reversing down couple of pads lower whether that’s here to 2477 plus a minus two points and I don’t need to give it a four point range there’s a literally 3 attractions in here three separate patterns or three strike three separate attractions or projections of multiple patterns at 2475 2477 and 2479 any one of them would suffice we got we have to work through the entirety of them to put into play anything lower so that’s two different ways and influences for beginning a pull back and where they would likely end where April back would likely end but that’s from the bullish perspective that’s from a boy’s perspective that quickly quickly gets that remaining bullish influence satisfied doesn’t leave any buyers outstanding so that I can go ahead and get on with its correction bullish influence leave that hire clothes outstanding and get on with a correction before holiday volume makes it irrelevant Corrections on volume at least normal volume normally Contracting volume versus artificially contracted volume like taking a lot of participants out of the market is much more predictive and influential if that they’re not close is already gotten out of the way I did not close anymore sorry now just that next time close at the new trend I close on a Friday and Shores get that out of the way already as quickly as possible be at Monday or Tuesday and then start turning down for whatever reason preferably not because of the holiday than Thursday holiday not on the Thursday holiday but already pulling back into Tuesday’s close or Wednesday and then we have reason at that point to believe Less sell and the rally extending or in a pullback being recovered if there’s no unfinished business left out standing above not that again not that the reversal down to becomes a straight path down in fact they’re still potential to be very choppy on the way down until we get out of this this range but if this particular breakout is retraced entirely back under a couple of Oz couple of prioritize it essentially starts sealing a top might look at other markets any other questions please go ahead and post them let me know if not the closing basis and now it’s been projected higher that covery leg projected higher to 38.2% and has held it may be its probe to 6033 but the point is where es was a confirmed break out Monday and Tuesday we barely see that here you can just barely see it in the majority all it not just the majority of Tuesday in ndx which is representing more speculative Behavior was mostly overlapping mostly just noise around Monday and happened all this happening to close above Monday’s close to confirm its Breakout and then trading similarly happening to close higher on Wednesday but holding a test of those hives on Friday not closing higher then it’s one session trying to break hire a second consecutive session such diversions between es and and Qs what essentially tell us momentum is about to reverse down if it isn’t already but I would like to see a similar rejection of fresh highs or similar to Virgin swear es is produced probing fresh eyes and accuse or not for second consecutive session not delaying it until Tuesday but on Monday so little concern here not really just a little but there’s a reason to Be watchful and ready to shift Hound mentality as far as higher highs if in fact and Qs don’t get their act in order here and somehow show that institutional or fiduciary or larger or another words stronger hands is actually more open to the speculative areas of the market then necessarily yes which is a broader-based few of the market is there any way to see a difference here at Willits look at the Del the Dow is 30 stocks and it’s going to be the most or perceived as the safest that the safest return or the safest versus cash just that relative to the cross section of Industry that the S&P 500 components represent or versus the more speculative growth-oriented stocks still liquid enough for the incisional players so we can see their mentality that the n q represents here’s the Dow 30 most established generally predictable Orting streams revenue streams among the most liquid Etc to look like money is rotating into the Dow and out of and Qs oops and not the asses doing any better or at fighting off rotation into the Dallas a firdaus. There’s reason for concern here and new Highs are not a cell signal but the mentality of the market participants they’re still bullish or there’s still buying which typically they do 90% of the time I would say but they’re being more selective getting into these little late save for bets question we cannot see the top of that fulfilling one more higher close yes that is correct and that is in by the way shouldn’t be confused with reversal in whichever direction but we know the context because if the market is able to rally is able to attract such sponsorship that’s able to produce a new High clothes consecutively and then another set up if it’s able to produce a new trend I close into a weekend it’s just not a not going to be strong handed sellers maybe the beginning of a reversal down that needs to be corrected retraced entirely but not the first leg down alright any questions let me know I’m going to move on to start I don’t know that we have any stocks to do this week Arena changed since last week which ended just needs 1010 area has to be recovered to actually put into play fresh eyes and it really is the objective of the actual jective is to retest this opening Gap that was above all prioritize at 1069 73 so let’s come up with another cell signal just in case that’s not what the market has in mind here which is 970-4975 so still 8:50 on Amazon that’s where I’d look for that’s where I’d look for the oops the down leg to extend if and or when and extends 850 area you know if in fact this does bounce back to the highs and create a bigger top that’s still going to be in will always be the likely pull back objective to the previous range all the way down first is either retesting the eyes or if in fact this is the peak of the corrective of the bounce and it then is just a correction that price action in here will let us raise the cell signal before it actually reverses downhi this is effectively a daily chart on Tesla coming back up to the eyes homeless grudgingly but yeah here’s a double top at the High not that it required being were tested but nice volume contraction having recovered it now once and then after dipping twice Tesla can’t produce this pattern wouldn’t be prudent be reliable at all as a top if it didn’t include a fresh hot presumably in the 402 54 412 area actually Friday or was it Friday or Thursday I’m thinking it was Friday so you can see the damage that’s been done the Paradigm Shift here not that it was extending hire on more sponsorship because of that lack of sponsorship on the upside the downside is more credible more understandable this kind of pattern of course knife catching is always fun fun pass time to the Philthy Rich buddy can really kill you otherwise interesting that expiration ended with a inside day and interesting of course not only does that lack of participation on the way up help to exacerbate the way down when it’s a surprise catalyst but expiration is well can suddenly bring everyone on winding you know we have a chart like this we do you have a chart like this this is a daily chart just I’m going Relentless uptrend and you have an environment for retirees for instance that is not conducive to savings accounts or CDs so they’re into for instance call selling strategy what kind of stocks do they pick this would be one of them so there’s a lot of expiration related activity lot of extra expiration related activity I would say if Equifax were going to put in a bounce that this is a a reasonable area to expect it from but it would be unreasonable to expect anything more than a bounce if 61.8% of this drop and that’s we’re talking Post open and just to the Lowe’s at we know already we retraced that would be 112 basically there’s no real cat there’s no real trigger for that you know that it’s nice catching and there’s if there’s a trigger and there’s no real trigger in this pattern as it stands now what would be an interesting set up would be if weather bouncing first Monday or initially dipping if at any point on Monday there were a negative a probe under Thursday’s lens negative territory versus the trend really almost any positive close at all would start to suggest a that all the negative sentiment has been expressed but also be that the just mechanical expiration related sewing pressure is done but again not a.m. not a stock or set up or situation that I’d want to just jump into with an opinion as opposed to fading and extreme opinion bounce to 112 likely would be for some sort of a pullback maybe that pull back is just to start forming the more durable bottom I doubt it but from this vantage point I couldn’t say that as definitively as if I’ve been able to see the bounce assuming there’s even a bounce but see what that bounce looks like how many legs to it and how long and drawn-out what it how did it originate did it originate from first pre-testing Thursday’s low as I described their just started taking off on Monday because expirations done and was overdone so no Origins going to speak to that a lot more so that I can’t right now interesting Barclays volume down here very interesting this is an ADR right so one thing I want to see here is is this a Trent change certainly got down trending series of Lowe’s in lower highs here’s an interesting spot where buyers not that worked out too well and not very well as far as a so there’s one higher close above 12 and I would say some substantial bottoming will have been put into place this is Linda alright anything else to look at anything else to review I don’t think so there’s the on Thursday as it happens Mario draghi is speaking I don’t know the exact time presumably it’ll be before the Market opens or in the morning so that’s really that and then Wednesday Wednesday afternoons FMC policy statement should be well-attended you would think but people leaving for evening services won’t help the liquid Atif actor for that alright going once going twice thanks everyone for being here this weekend have a great weekend Charlie will be open tomorrow night at 6 for the Globex open I’ll see you there or if I don’t see you there I’ll see you Monday morning have a great weekend take care

The holiday-shortened week had only one rally. That was Tuesday afternoon, following Tuesday’s gap down and steep, deep slide through the noon hour. Gapping up Wednesday has since only ranged sideways. Basing for another upleg, or distribution?

This is one of the important questions discussed in this weekend’s Saturday Review. We also note the hand-off during July between stocks and bonds, and check the current influence of July’s ongoing Downtrending Pivotal Resistance. The potential and false signals of NDX and the Dow relative to S&Ps is also analyzed.

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The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
CMA, JPM, MS, BAC, GS, NFLX, FB, ARNA, AMD, GE

Alright good morning and welcome it is Saturday it’s time for Saturday review thank you for taking time from your weekend to join us we’re going to go over the market I’ve got a couple by then get your sting Vantage points and then we will discuss stocks and he’s talked requests anybody has first though let’s review last week’s Market where we started and we got here we rolled the forward or the front-month contract to December from September is a holiday shortened week and we came in with Fallout so to speak from another North Korean missile it’s two weekends in a row and we’ll see what happened or not really weekends it was the prior weekend was Monday not the Labor Day weekend kind of a delayed response we had ended the prior week on Friday stopping just short here’s the bigger picture just short of touching the pivotal High that is the high prior to the actual High so I’m going Trend actual High the high prior to the actual has the pivotal high and there’s the interim low once a tantrum low is breached which it may never be the trend may just continue but if that is ever breached there is no reason to return to the pivotal hi actually touch that pivotal High other than to eventually touch the actual High there’s plenty of reasons but if after breaching that interim low the pivotal high is retested then that actual high is very likely or historically almost guaranteed to be retested eventually it doesn’t really matter or isn’t very helpful if they’re close together and if that test of the pivotal hi just keeps extending hired to test an actual High head last week’s High last Friday so I actually touch that pivotal Heights top three tix short didn’t do it had it actually touched it and then pulled back that would be very helpful to know the context of this being just temporary and having a date with the actual High that can add confidence to buying a pull back or looking for pullbacks to buy looking for supports to hold instead of brake lower three tix is pretty close so we can’t get terribly decisive but we will look back to the prior week everything about the bounce off of the load did speak to a correction a temporary correction who’s Lowe’s were likely to Beaver tested so we’re still getting a benefit of the doubt to the two or three-week rally two-week rally that ended basically or maybe just paused last Friday as being a temporary corrective bounce before either retesting August Lowe if not actually breaking lower 81 minute chart if not actually breaking under August Lowe into a deeper decline but we do that and just because we reacted down forcibly from it doesn’t mean that it’s totally rejected so what else happened for the rest of the week the gapping down trending down Tuesday Tuesday welcomed us back from the Labor Day weekend at least in the morning pretty aggressively to the downside and then the balance of the session coming out of the after trending down through the noon hour the balance of the session coming out of the noon hour Rally or at least firmed and it wasn’t arbitrarily There’s Tuesday Mornings to climb through the noon hour testing lower prioritize filling a gap testing more lower prioritize holding so lot of constructive stuff was done Tuesday in the pool back in testing this lower prioritize and holding them but they weren’t all held and that is last Wednesday’s High although it’s gap-fill was recovered you see a little detail here this is last Wednesday the Gap was filled the Gap held put that little tail there that high that hire High closing above or seemingly closing above last Wednesday’s I actually wasn’t that was post clothes mostly and it was in any case overlapping so not a clear recovery of that last Pryor High lower Pryor High so we can’t say that Tuesday Mornings decline was necessarily rejected in retrospect after 3 days of training since then we still can’t say that just because of the decline hasn’t resumed from there doesn’t mean that we’ve default into a rally even though that lower Pryor High Tuesday’s close has yet to break lower doesn’t mean that it’s holder this Wednesday that Wednesday open the Gap up actually was all based on overnight trending that’s where the Gap up is overnight movement that’s maintained at the next open there’s been no rally since then there’s been no intraday rally producing anything that hasn’t already been produced like Tuesday afternoon did since Tuesday’s close it was follow through Tuesday night but Wednesday is open has since held as resistance and Tuesday’s close has since held as support that’s distribution that’s distribution here is by the way Thursday afternoon Thursdays late Futures clothes trending up above the cash session the afternoon session High despite the pattern indicating that it slows we were tested maybe the same thing coming on Monday if not Sunday night because this too is post cash session clothes this is Future’s close producing that hire high after yesterday headed to Kaden that we’re going to be breaking lower remember yesterday indicated we’re going to be breaking lower because if not exactly yesterday that it’s coming because overnight action had probed lower overnight action had those sessions as Wednesday and Thursday sessions that I pointed out and done anything yet had extended Thursday afternoons rally it’s chipping away at support then I could have been rejected it’s really didn’t extend it was absorbed through the open by absorbing into the open we knew that at least the morning would be free from trending down not necessarily the afternoon but that could have been rejected this overnight dip chipping away at support of the prior to introduce sessions rejected by closing above the resistance of those prior to introduce sessions it wasn’t and in fact this down trending going back to that pivotal High the high prior to the actual High and their interim low remember that well it’s also look at the actual high now there’s hello there’s a probe of that interim high-end ramlow sorry heading out will lower low and at this point we can now identify this level and we can take this as an anchor and this as a connector and create this extended plane this down trending resistance has that been influential has been predictive it’s been influential there it is as resistance when it breaks higher it’s tested as support the one session that finally tries getting away from it totally detached from it actually doesn’t close any higher than the open and immediately is rejected by gapping back down to that down trending resistance it continues to act as both of magnet and resistance so going to this down trending pivotal resistance we’re still connected to price action and sponsorship and sentiment that originated the heights back here the pivotal High the actual hi back at the heights July August I here’s some more evidence of that that’s if we go to the long blonde there is a long line there is July’s actually July’s I I’m sorry I let me go to we also rolled forward on the long blonde from sap to December let’s go back to the subcontract because back here are first bicycles started triggering as far as a bottom for me first Buy Signal and started forming back here in mid-july before the 17th triggering after the 17th that first warning shot across the bow corrected and then we had more bottoming signals by the end of July beginning of August and the same time frame mid-july you can see the pivotal high in the es and that’s something 500 forming and where the long blonde came back and made a higher low he has his making a higher high Thibodaux high as it turns out and the long Bond being bought up not making a new low is good tell here but the long mine has been rising interest rates have been falling pretty steadily or at least relentlessly and all stocks have done is trade flat to lower so this whole Market since July and even the week before or two has been the same mindset or the same sponsorship the same evaluation questions being worked out the question is whether it is basing weather turns out that this is accumulation backing and filling changing ownership from one perception to another whether this is distribution which is pretty much the same thing the change in ownership but not from one perception to another from stronger hands too weak or hands that changing perception is more shorter term or wrong so we should know soon because just as started saying well first of all because we’re in this distributive range for 3 consecutive days with Tuesday afternoon rally being the only rally of the week and even then it’s off of aloe that although it’s are a size weren’t simultaneously oversold and requiring the retest although there was no unfinished business below at some point especially when it’s reaction up doesn’t extend all but requires a retest there should be a retest we should find out soon because just like Thursday’s indications that it slows we’re going to be were tested in that was delay today we had the same indications from Friday’s ranging perhaps that’s being delay today it’s almost an air pocket here if in fact selling get started under the week slows under these higher priority now though sorry getting ahead of myself coin Empire Pryor live basically 5824 58th if that is actually giving way I expect the character of that break to be pretty aggressive like an air pocket so just gradually creeping lower that’s not going to be very credible when this whole range should really just be broken or slid through very aggressively and then we get a chance to see assuming that that does happen assuming that we’re not launching a rally as the week begins certainly possible as unlikely as it may be based on what I’ve already pointed out there are attractions above there’s a gap back the last Friday’s High it doesn’t have to be filled but could be there’s last Friday’s hi I having attacked but not touched July’s pivotal High but it could be retested doesn’t have to be but could be but if we get a chance instead first to see a retest of Tuesday’s low however that’s Matt weather the market does just start gradually creeping down weather in does hit an air pocket and suddenly as retesting Tuesday’s low then we’ll know based on the outcome of that retest the resolution of that session based on its clothes will know or should know whether this has been basing weather this whole process here has been changing from one strong and perception to another or is it going to happen if we test Tuesday’s low and don’t hold it if we test Tuesday’s low and clothes under any that’s all that’s tested in the same day then we’re looking at a the next down leg underway the next downloading something on the order of here’s one leg to correct where’s the next down like to hear know it’s going to be a new low 2412 could have been 2412 this leg and extended down or this leg at this stage after having refueled so much if in fact we are breaking down if a test of Tuesday’s low doesn’t old 2412 probably doesn’t do it and sub 2400 maybe doesn’t do it either they will retest of Tuesday’s low doesn’t hold there’s Tuesday’s low 2412 sub 2400 these aren’t really down legs at this point two three that’s about the same size that’s not fitting at that point not after such a big hand extended detour versus these two legs something more on the order of this would be like Canada silly with a very dissimilar slope could look very much like that anyway so those are the pass for the outcome of the market at this stagelet’s look at how this compares to other markets of the es the S&P 500 just a cross-section of economy Consolidated this week the last three sections of the holiday shortened week in a Range having Pink Friday trying to down Thursday morning nq’s 100 stocks technology waited but still very liquid more speculative less predictable earnings flows hot performing so there’s that comprable pivotal high or after I pick little high and yes that was followed by an actual High here’s nq’s making a lower high that was a warning sign that we noted at the time head it’s certainly accounted for or participated in the next couple of down legs but it’s recovered back to a fresh I not that it’s extended remember the rule 1 days performance does not make a trend that’s why we need a second day second consecutive sessions confirmation and there wasn’t one on the new high in N kids that’s been holding it’s not been predicted but it’s not been reflecting any great return to speculation and then the Dow which is been similar somewhat similar two smt’s two big down legs has a shallower recovering doesn’t really have a pivotal hi to sort of glided right through that at the end of July but in the past week yes has been stalled at Sophie’s of installed the Dow has been acting relatively weaker it’s also been stalled but at least Friday morning and had some issues that also is not two consecutive sessions that’s been a lot of targeted issues targeted difficulties like Disney big there’s only 30 stocks in the Dow they are more reliable and learning streams and their numbers or more widely followed or predictable we got a second consecutive lower clothes in the down and we’ll be able to consider that the Dow is breaking lower or under greater pressure and if that’s not making a high set up I wouldn’t expect all that in one day write any other questions that’s it on the markets bigger picture as far as opening Sunday night if he has it already indicated and Sunday night starts rallying retest the upper end of the range just keep in mind that has to Outlast the open Cash session open Wendy’s open has to maintain that any prior High tested at the open must be exceeded the 9:45 or else it will held it will left a gap down Gap back to Friday’s close outstanding below I’m just the momentum of being attracted back down to it could forcibly plummet as well through the lower end 2458 lower end of these last 3 days there’s probably no lower Sunday night that can recover If instead prices are dropping Sunday night trending down. Natalie Frazier but in the Europe’s opens that’s been done been there done that if that’s being done again on Sunday night I’d be very confident that that Monday was going to extend down and I just gap down and find a quick low but actually extend down I know but it seems that hopefully not traded just calculated the bank index hi in March lower high in the summer in June July so those lower highs this summer aren’t really matched in the banks here’s Comerica slightly higher high JPM slightly higher hi Morgan Stanley higher high Bank of America came right up to resistance with a lower high who do you want to be short in this group hi guys are the lower hi guys Goldman Sachs lower high so interesting and the whole point to the to the analysis and Barons was Bank stocks are rolling over the market can’t be far behind Netflix very deep and Netflix as possible but the first objective of a recovery anyway when somebody 6 tested don’t think we’ve had two consecutive higher closes above it he has since getting there there’s been 100 close above it but not confirmed by a second consecutive higher close that’s a problem or could be because there’s no requirement to trade any higher there was a gap out here there’s basically a that’s how neutralizers basically a 6184 Trey Smith essentially met so closing under 169 and there’s still room down to 169 that’s not the double lines actually just before that but there’s really no bullets reason to revisit these double dashed lines that are ready and able to pull back to stop that is so prematurely but without fulfilling its potential before recovering so perhaps bouncing prematurely anyway the calculable support here’s 169 there’s just no bullets reason to revisit let alone clothes under 169 but for confirmation say closing under these Double Dash lines 166 basically would suggest that a substantial top is done stay away from that and preferably don’t even dip any deeper than this 175 just resume the rally and new high as would be targeted head and post them now please post any other requests fun 4850 now that 175 for the 161 8 extension of this pattern now that that’s already met Andra test it we can really raise the cell signal the 16350 any other stocks is the time to go ahead and post them hey other stocks to look at here I’ll bring up arnoult Arena pharmaceutical I started pointing it out on this head and shoulders that was breaking higher and then coiling so this back this summer and had a nice surge corrective dip held in the process of a corrective dip and inverted Head and Shoulders or pivotal correction form can see through all this but it has extended higher just call you at 2375 suggest that new rally like is underway volume is a little not much of a concern a little concerned I really want to see much bigger volume number one it’s definitely picked up a number to see bigger volume on the upside than the downside we did have basically some pulled back here into the afternoon but got to a pretty significant level and that’s to test this 25 resistance so I guess you can see it better here at volume should be better needs to be better soon decline because that has put in a significant top so by January what will need to have seen by January really by December is aloe and a rally and what we want to see in December that point is a higher low it is getting a little late for all of that if it’s going to be from a significant level like we were we would want to see that from some historically lower lows yeah if it’s not if it’s not doing all that from say 20 or even lower than it’s probably not a January that candidate at that point is it in free-fall and it’s a really good question it’s a really odd question to be asking mge is well which makes it an even better question is it in free-fall it is in downtrend so we’ve got lower lows and lower highs the question is whether for free fall from me the quiet the answer that with the is hope no longer springing Eternal you know a name like GE is going to find support is going to find as you can see even at support produces some pretty relatively big Rally’s short-term bounces but those don’t amount anything even with their volume expanding so freefall /. These are not the same but capitulation as we approach prior Lowe’s how to expect a free-fall stage of in fact and we knew for a fact that we were going to that GE were going to end here or we’re going to get here freefall would look like this it would break under those longer-term prior Lowe’s and then back and fill and this would be the free-fall stage not on its way to a prior low and not on Breaking the prior low but after failing to recover the prior love that’s where I’d start looking for the free-fall stage any others that we can look at please go ahead and post them now I’m about to do my going once going twice all done if you have any stocks during the week and there’s something specific you need to know about it I definitely have a great rest of the weekend

An interesting thing happened this week on the way to oblivion. Monday morning’s probe of fresh lows was rejected, and Tuesday’s huge rally corrected the ongoing decline. But the decline hasn’t yet resumed. Why not? Could it be due to something coming on the market’s radar that wasn’t there one week earlier? And could that produce a new bull market rally?

I discuss that previously invisible influence in this weekend’s Saturday Review, and describe the potential paths higher it has opened. Potential paths. The decline’s pattern currently remains very much intact, and so I also reiterate its paths down, and the objectives.

 CLICK HERE TO WATCH

The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
ARNA, OXISD, AAPL, FB, NFLX, GOOGL. AMZN, AMD, FL, gold

good morning and welcome it is Saturday Saturday review where are we Wednesdays Thursdays Fridays breakout return to the breakout point and extend the decline here’s another form of a break out or leaving a range there’s that Central Point break away from it return to it clothes back under it we haven’t seen is for such a substantial in terms of length or longevity such a substantial range that has been broken so substantially substantial in terms of degree that the resumption or the confirmation of the Breakout has no substantiality to it at all very brief relatively shallow very eerie seems like there is a another shoe to drop and the longer of the delay and dropping the other shoe the bigger than shoe if not the more of them so bottom line if I haven’t made it clear none of this is a cumulative in fact we’ve got a gap outstanding below back to Monday’s close anything about this is a bounce why we did have one likely recovery point to fill in the Gap at Tuesday’s closed 24 5150 and that was filled and that was held it took so long it took an extra day to develop so the likelihood of extending through it to 2461 where there’s measurements where there’s higher priorities Isn’t So required but still on the table until we get out of this orbit until we break under one of these for Lowe’s still on the table and a path her that I’ll describe it a moment nevertheless we’re still just looking at a at a top or at least on the way to ongoing downtrend everything is turning over rolling over and being productive about it so what about that potential bumpers and so to what degree well at 2461 was avoided for an extra day or the opportunity for last week to be after Wednesday’s session to be attractive back up to the Gap back to Tuesdays those a 5150 at that point I had it been done Tuesday already been done Wednesday likely to be tested up to 61 but the delay took 61 off the table well that is also because the door was open to extending The pullback Notches 238 but 229 we only got the 38 and Friday didn’t extend down it also if anything was optimism not necessarily in a sexual so the door or the path up is open either remains open or is back open but more important than that definition is that it’s open the path is open a little bit longer so whether there are higher Prairie lives at 61 then Dad calculable jective Susanna 61 that would satisfy all but it’s a singular numerical representation of a cluster of objectives and higher prices at cetera there’s also potential Into The Sweet Spot short of touching the height of the actual High so there’s the prior High the high prior to the actual High 2480 little high that if touched because that interim Louis been probed if 2480 is ever touched again will have a very high degree of confidence that at some point we’re going to be testing the actual High which by the way is a pivotal high it was a pivotal session once pivotal reversals are productive if there ever were tested it’s not just a form aboard durable top that will be probed by quite a bit into the 25 welder 225 s is ever touched again so sweet spot in here if 2461 Thruway closed we will start looking for That Sweet Spot short of the pivotal I better retest of the prior High prior I being 2474 so somewhere in this area there’s a number of things that could be tested there’s a clothes for instance in 78 7775 cash session it’s not the most likely that structure has a lot of overlap at 77 so we get through 61 on a closing basis 77 attack test attraction at the very least gets into play so something to be aware of since last week’s drop certainly plausible that from a fundamental ornamental perspective that very real down slide potential plunge was underway when the hurricane came no pun intended on the radar on the markets radar and the potential for its positive impact on the story that was unfolding otherwise bad economic numbers and the Ripple effects of it’s a bit on policy at cetera on legislation when that came on the radar and the intense amount of damage it might do that helped to stymie this had a very relevant spot remember speaking of breakouts that are returned to before extending are objective are minimum objective had been 24 24 25 25 which Gap likely to be tested down to at least 2421 so there’s that break out yet to retest one of the things have slowed it down or the things that identified that its sponsorship was impatient and therefore late stages we candid well that’s been filled now so that’s natural support and it’s capable of holding and it’s capable of launching a bounce it’s capable of launching recovery I suspect not willing to be disproved monitoring for any country evidence such as closing about 2477 or at least touching 2480 that would suggest a much more major up leg is underway absent that any kind of Bounce here unless we see some other cumulative structure unless we see for instance prior to recovering through 77 touching 2480 anything like that that would tell us where it heading willing to the 2500 and we did get a drop here 2420 mediately 2429 if that word to retest these prior Lowe’s without breaking under these perilous we can test them 2412 is the next 24 1175 2412 is an extra large active that would need to hold to stay away from sub 2400 which point there is no more upside without a much deeper drop bounces doomed to failure that point recovering back Above This level would be similar to Simply recovering above 7780 already without that extra dip 2412 doesn’t make it any it’s really this area doesn’t make any difference still needs to recover above this week size that would still indicate that this correction had ended that don’t require a mediately extending to and then through 7777 those are the premise that is unfolding to the downside and we’ve gone so long without hurricanes the Earth bounce mode or resuming the decline and it’s not a requirement but I suspect that if we’re closing on any day closing under 2438 we’re testing 29 as well so 2138 to relevant level and I’ll explain how it’s still relevant on a closing basis and a moment even if we’re probably under it but if we’re probably under 2438 we’re probably also testing 2429 so why not just focus on 2429 sand said so much bigger level at that point once it’s tested because it 2429 is tested then closing back above 24 38 on that same session intraday test of 29 to whatever degree probably down to 2427 recovering the clothes above 2438 doesn’t reverse momentum up but gives us an advance clue that these sellers are not strong handed why not why not infer from that that a rally is underway well week and its sellers don’t always follow with strong-headed buyers we can’t add sellers that only fill this Gap back to 29 could also be the Advance Team that are sacrificed to chip away at support so that stronger sellers come in and take it down until we actually if 29 is tested and 38 is recovered until we’re actually closing back above this structure momentum hasn’t yet reversed up that’s how we find out that this whole back is already done already likely to Trend to new highs and not just in the sense of retesting the prior hide the trending to new highs above 2500 well into the 2500 without having to wait for this pivotal High 2482 be tested as far as that the new but as far as the same closing under this structure which is the next anyway bull market since the election or 291 is relevant support closing above one above 295 points higher closing under to 91 points lower we had a couple close is under 291 where they rejected weather was the closing of 295 on Monday that in this Natural Gas that wasn’t decisive and trying to get decisive at the following up in my gapping up really wasn’t the best way to get to resolve that bullishly a dip that recovered two three would have been much more would have been bullish whereas just testing 3 aggressively instead reflected weekends but here’s here’s the point though we didn’t close under 291 actually until yesterday but even before that on Thursday we were in really I’m starting on Wednesday but mostly on Thursday and became final the setup that said with this storm bearing down on the golf and on closing productivity production getting a lot of headlines of a lot of refiners closing at a safety not disturbing damaged but Adam safety because leading to potential for damage cutting Supply in other words why isn’t natural gas surgeon what was surgeon that’s why it was able to not to decisively close enough to 95 and GAP up the next day that’s why I despite gapping down to 291 it was able to bounce and on Thursday Gap up and probed 295 without closing above that is the weekend and buyers reacting to the headlines but when they’re not able to get that done when the news is not matching price action and vice versa price knows something that the news doesn’t been so this weekend for instance already last night we’re finding out Galveston at least at this point is not taking the brunt of it Galveston where the Galveston Texas for a lot of the refineries are closing or shutting down and sake of safety meaning that they will probably be back online with nominal interruption so any premium in here because of the supply concerns needs to be corrected so looking for a bottom 281 but that’s how the Market discounts things and if it’s doing the same thing here for instance it didn’t get going on a bigger balanced and get 71 out of the way the last couple days because of concerns that the headlines won’t be very bullish from the next few days that’s going to need to be worked out and in the market can get back to doing what it was intended to do any questions on the marketupdated you I definitely what update I introduced previously because of its reverse split that made it one of the very few just a handful of stocks with cannabis sector exposure that could then be attractive to them people spaded in institutionally where otherwise sub $5 stocks let alone sub $0.05 stocks are off limits they had a earnings problem and that is seemingly working itself out just have to get through 20 to 35 2287 and then presumably 2370 is a big deal get through that and there’s some major move under way well that’s joined by another and I don’t really have any working knowledge on oxis International deal that it recently did but you can see that screamed from $0.04 to $0.12 and not too long before that this is the beginning of August this is July under $0.02 it’s trading post split was it 300 till 1 or 1 1/2 300 sorry o x i s d I’m not recommending this stock I’m just waiting out that what what can happen or not happen with the sudden availability of a cannabis stock being able to be participated in institutional lot of Premium has been knocked out of this one back to August back to levels at August entry looking at things Apple where the broader Market Apple was holding its range what that means it’s going to be rewarded for that a performance or on its chipping away at this for these Pryor High as which we can make one assessment that’s pretty strong support because it’s holding but it still needs some sort of rubber band stretch to snap the rally back into existence and it’s tough to buy this above 160 so much simile for Google who the things have held up well generally but they do have more downside Google dial 866turn which reason to change this that I think it was falling over the edge here back in June when the Whole Foods story came out and created a retest of the high that only we tested the high but again needs to be rewarded however being permanently needs to be rewarded and it was rewarded pretty impermanent Lee before reversing back down and that chipping away looking at sewing its way through that prior low so Amazon sewing for a pulled back to 840-3855 areasell trigger on Netflix would it is too late to sell it other than to be prepared to buy it back and 160 a.m. and it’s just five or six dollars when the potential is for that dip to resolve into a new rally leg or at least a big retrenchment back up to 177 you know if what if rather than stretching the pool bag limit or stretching the rubber band to snap up into a rally leg if rather than get it out of the way to the downside bouncing the 177 first would have the risk of stretching the rubber band so it could extend down prior to dipping any deeper testing 177 what would be an interesting so are these funds are these mutual funds tgldx yeah I don’t really think we’re going to be able to work with those on chart but if you want to give me the sector we can look at the sector and there’s probably some degree of comparison AMD and a it’s left out standing this Gap up above all prioritize and that even though it’s within this range which means it doesn’t require being tested off and it is especially when it does come from a triangle break falsely and One Direction reverse more substantial in the opposite direction and then off and resume but if then to the degree that requires a retest and we’re looking for the pull back to end at some point once they got under 1170 that more substantial reaction damn became likely and that more substantial reaction down is just now testing the lower end of the triangle it has if it’s going and I’m not saying it has to recover but if it’s going to recover and probably need to flush out more sellers down to the 1065 1095 area having said that though closing above 1320 1345 I don’t like it in terms of timing and as being a little too shallow in the near-term but I’d have to suspect something more substantial to the outside is already going on there’s a longest 13 2013 45 holds his resistance for probably still headed to 1065 1095 and that’s where a bigger decision is madeFoot Locker had Facebook actually a done Facebook before I post one up but I’ll come back to it we can look at it again Facebook had another earnings Miss morning so if there’s any reason to buy or Foot Locker that is if there’s any reason to buy Foot Locker it’s for the potential to fill this Gap test Tire Pryor lives it’s a little premature for that meanwhile this sort of the pattern very difficult to reverse its Trend not that it never happens but there’s just no there’s just no reason when seemingly such a widely followed company is so recently losing and an ongoing basis losing so much trust that it’s just suddenly going to reverse that trend so if the question is whether it’s worth of by at some point it will be worth it by with the potential up to 4725 and if you run the risk reward on that the reward side may seem pretty attractive 10 or 11 points to the upside the problem is there’s more than 10 or 11 points to the downside not to mention time value because even if we knew it hundred percent degree of certainty that this were the absolute low it could be yours literally before even bouncing there while enduring the risk of it being much more Bridgeport time-consuming are much more downside let’s get a weekly on this just to see how horrible it can get yeah this is the channel of the channel of and there’s a reason for that it already has been at least attack 160 and it’s a break of 160 that gets us back into this prior range as far as resuming the rally I’m really in this pattern and so much congestion we really have to see a new High clothes and be careful that there’s not a second consecutive higher close to confirm it there’s anything bullish about the pattern in case of a break lower that would indicate the context is only temporary it is all this congestion that’s likely to be retraced but that doesn’t mean they’re necessarily reverses back into a rally alright so the tgldx vgpmx these are these are precious metals funds or on a Minor’sif they are let’s just go and look at colon precious metal funds so let’s go to look at gold real quickly we do this everyday of course twice a day in the market or and market wrap and the daily spot too but not on the longer-term bigger picture stuff so it’s look at the bigger picture real quick like I’m gold which you have to Discount Friday’s action I mean in relation to news yelling was speaking at at the Jackson Hole symposium neutral basis I did discuss in the market wrap and in the daily spot that actually this action that came back from retesting 1288 which is a cell signal that had been tested Tuesday retested it Tuesday’s recovery stop short of anything relevant like a prior hi to reverse momentum up or decayed that sellers have been trapped and so there’s a retest and a fresh low now it’s recovery forget about the president to it that’s not very relevant but still stop short actually recovering an interim I remember this or a prior hi this is no longer the prior high now this is the prior hi to the new test yeah we closed above it but overlapping it so it still not decisive but it does give a chance to limit the negative effects of 1288 spring in fact to limit the potential for closing under 1288 if this is on gold if this is immediately productive Monday already rallying then the bigger picture does get a lot more interesting than the upside because there’s some significant highs in here kind of expanding you can sing that is not reliable that’s not the most predictable Dead Rising legend of the end so you can understand why it’s a little suspicious that 1288 isn’t breaking it seems a little seems like a lot of optimism up here but I’ll give it every benefit of the doubt if Monday is breaking higher especially if Tuesday confirms but the reward is new highs 1305 what is the objective 1305 was tested last week and 1305 held if the subsequent action held 1288 couple times and recovered to produce over railing we’re not going to eating and I are but actually bring in a couple bigger bars breaking out especially as we get through higher prior loves then the reward is new highs above the upper end of those higher prices and if that’s the resolution if this pattern look at this measurement got to the room for noise under a 61 8 retracement anywhere in there if that’s recovered and not on one leg of course not in a week but this is the kind of productivity that such extended basing can ultimately lead to so I can be packed into the resolution the last week’s testing him 1288 1305 resistance a lot can be back into it as in the resolution to that is fairly productive in the longer term if that 1305 Old to 1288 holds that’s not necessarily resuming the decline under 1288 could find support on this plane can program fresh low and then start all over again and actually that is the likelihood if 1288 brakes sub-1000 not all in a week not all in a single leg but that’s the kind of thing it can set into motion right I think we got all the stops if there is anything else let me know and I feel free to post requesting the week if something is in motion needs to be assessed immediately he has been fun lots of swings lots of very predictable levels and resolutions and nothing in the pattern it’s going to end anytime soon enjoy it then as well