Bias-parameters
Morning bias
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| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 861 | 857’50 |
| …would target | 866 | 862’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 853.50 | 850’00 |
| …would target | 847.50 | 844’00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, TARGET MET | FAQ | |
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Testing the bias-up.
[pay]The afternoon’s 849’25 bias-up signal was tested about halfway through the noon hour, and its reaction since then has been less than 2 points down. If the signal holds as resistance through 1:20, then the 840’75 bias-down signal would be in-play. But it is getting late in the noon hour for its rally not to have been rebuffed, if that’s what the market intends before testing Thursday’s highs.
The morning’s last low at 842’25 fully retraced a late-morning bounce, which shouldn’t have been retraced fully unless the market intended to break it. The market probably does intend to break it, but might be planning new session highs first.
Above 850’00 would confirm the bias-up signal was breaking, and may be considered for long-entry before 1:20 (then the bias-up signal would be the pullback limit). If no-bias is triggered, then the bias-down signal would be in-play.
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Afternoon bias
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| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 852.75 | 849’25 |
| …would target | 859 | 855’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 844.25 | 840’75 |
| …would target | 836.50 | 833’00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
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A bias-down that doesn’t want to be.
[pay]The bias-down target was tested down to 841’50 before reversing back up to the 848’75 bias-down signal. The signal was still being tested at 10:15, invoking the 15-minute grace period to prove whether the signal triggered.
Since the target was already met, the signal’s timely recovery through 10:15 would have equated to being a buy signal. Instead, holding it through 10:30 confirmed the bias-down. Traders whose strategy would sell on this signal might not have sold because the bias-down target was already met, neutralizing some or all of its magnetic attraction.
While awaiting a trading parameter that points down, a recovery above 849’25 would instead point higher to potentially probe Thursday’s high. Under 845’00 would essentially put into play a retest of the 841’50 low.
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Morning bias
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| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 859 | 855’50 |
| …would target | 867 | 863’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 852.25 | 848’75 |
| …would target | 845.75 | 842’25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN, MET BIAS-DOWN TARGET | FAQ | |
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