Bias-parameters
Morning bias
[pay]
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1257.25 | 1258’00 |
| …would target | 1262 | 1262’75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1248.25 | 1249’00 |
| …would target | 1242.25 | 1243’00 |
| Signal status: Bias-down target met overnight | FAQ | |
[/pay]
Afternoon bias
[pay]
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1256 | 1256’75 |
| …would target | 1260 | 1260’75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1248 | 1249’00 |
| …would target | 1243 | 1243’75 |
| Signal status: No-bias, tested bias-down signal | FAQ | |
[/pay]
Bias-down signaled.
[pay]Just touching Monday’s pivotal low had all but assured a probe under Monday’s actual low. And it was probed, by 4 points down to ESu 1237’50. Now the 1244’25 bias-down signal is being retested as resistance. It triggered at 10:15 and wasn’t recovered by 10:30, so there is no scenario that would invalidate it.
I still expect a retest of Tuesday’s Globex lows. Timing is another story. The downleg might not resume before probing the bias-down signal by a couple of points up to 1246’25. That could be considered a stop candidate for shorts entered upon testing the 1244’25 bias-down signal as resistance.
Don’t forget that I will not be updating during 11:15-2:00 (okay, possibly once).
[/pay]
Morning bias
[pay]
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1251.25 | 1252’00 |
| …would target | 1258.25 | 1259’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1243.50 | 1244’25 |
| …would target | 1235 | 1235’75 |
| Signal status: Bias-down signaled, Bias-up target met | FAQ | |
[/pay]
Bias-down target met.
[pay]More new session lows just fulfilled the ESu 1265’25 bias-down target. The question now is whether a lower target at 1255’00 can be put into play.
It’s too late to avoid signaling bias-down. Back above 1268’00 through 1:30 (now being tested as resistance) does take away some of sellers’ traction. New lows through 1:30 would confirm the decline’s momentum remains intact.
[/pay]